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Where is the world heading? What choices need to be made to help humanity to thrive? These questions are more acute than ever in a context of growing inequalities, populism, social disorder, environmental challenges, and global health threats.The Future of the Global Order explores the six fundamental transformations ahead that will define the future of the world in the next three decades. Each chapter provides a unique and fact-based analysis of the situation at hand, reviews underlying uncertainties, and studies their inter-dependencies. As a tool to trigger debate, the book provides possible evolutions in global activity with four baseline scenarios, grasping the key issues which will shape the global order to 2050.Essential reading for anyone interested in understanding the massive forces of global change at play and the key decisions facing the future of humanity and the world.
In The Next Industrial Revolution, Vincent Petit builds on his earlier work, The Age of Fire Is Over (2021), where he explored how key transformations in consumption patterns impact our energy system in ways that have been seldom envisioned. He further develops this work here, and traces how these transformations apply to our modern industrial system, the bedrock of our global economic development and wealth creation.Petit argues that the world is on the cusp of the next centennial transformation of our industrial system, driven by major technological enhancements, considerable opportunities for productivity step changes, but also significant resiliency and environmental challenges.Through a deep and unique exploration of the innovation landscape and global context in each major sector of industry, the author sheds light on the key changes that will transform not only every sector of activity, but also the way they interact with one another to produce nothing short of a complete redesign of our industrial system.The way such transformation will unfold will, however, depend on the complex entanglement of technological progress, policy, business transformations and cultural evolutions. Through different scenarios, the author highlights some of the key decisions that need to be made today, in order to make the most of this opportunity.
The heart of the contemporary argument on climate change and energy transition focuses on how energy supply should be decarbonized to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.This book proposes an alternative approach.The Age of Fire Is Over: A New Approach to the Energy Transition finds that energy transitions are not driven by supply-side driven transformations but rather by evolutions in demand patterns.Exploring the potential of recently emerged key technologies, The Age of Fire Is Over argues that the so-called Energy Transition has not yet started. In the future, key technologies will significantly transform demand and provide services at a fraction of today's cost or offer new services not yet imagined. To a large extent, energy paradigm shifts are driven by such evolutions, largely inevitable and often unanticipated, because they provide societies with greater benefits: lower costs, more jobs, and rapid adaptation.This book closes with key novel recommendations for government institutions to accelerate the energy transition, which — instead of replicating an approach from the past — should focus on these demand transformations to both advance civilization and mitigate climate change.With Foreword by Jean-Pascal Tricoire, Schneider Electric Chief Executive Officer.
NIC 2008-003. November 2008. Global Trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the National Intelligence Council-led effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. The primary goal is to provide US policymakers with a view of how world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action.
At a time when contemporary challenges seem to many to be insurmountable, this book offers an optimistic view of the future and provides a road map for societies to get there. Drawing upon extensive research and many years as a thought leader in environmental and sustainability issues in Japan and internationally, Hiroshi Komiyama analyzes the most pressing challenges to the attainment of sustainability of economically advanced nations and argues forcefully for Japan to lead them out of the present dilemma through active promotion of creative consumer and societal demand. He shows how an active industry–government–academic partnership can provide the environment needed to promote such new creative demand and illustrates its potential through presentation of a Platinum Society Network that was launched on a regional basis in Japan in 2010 to facilitate the solution of common issues through the exchange of information and ideas. What is perhaps most surprising about the text is its unwavering optimism supported by hard evidence, history, and insightful observation. Problems arising from new paradigms of the 21st century (what the author refers to as “exploding knowledge, limited Earth resources, and aging societies“) thwart sustainable development in advanced and developing countries alike. All countries will struggle with issues that evolve from these paradigms including diminishing resources, expanding budget deficits, and growing global environmental problems. This window on potential practical pathways and solutions should be of interest to all those engaged in seeking ways to meet these contemporary challenges.
The clock is relentlessly ticking! Our world teeters on a knife-edge between a peaceful and prosperous future for all, and a dark winter of death and destruction that threatens to smother the light of civilization. Within 30 years, in the 2030 decade, six powerful 'drivers' will converge with unprecedented force in a statistical spike that could tear humanity apart and plunge the world into a new Dark Age. Depleted fuel supplies, massive population growth, poverty, global climate change, famine, growing water shortages and international lawlessness are on a crash course with potentially catastrophic consequences. In the face of both doomsaying and denial over the state of our world, Colin Mason cuts through the rhetoric and reams of conflicting data to muster the evidence to illustrate a broad picture of the world as it is, and our possible futures. Ultimately his message is clear; we must act decisively, collectively and immediately to alter the trajectory of humanity away from catastrophe. Offering over 100 priorities for immediate action, The 2030 Spike serves as a guidebook for humanity through the treacherous minefields and wastelands ahead to a bright, peaceful and prosperous future in which all humans have the opportunity to thrive and build a better civilization. This book is powerful and essential reading for all people concerned with the future of humanity and planet earth.
Barring major policy failures, the U.S. military will enjoy unrivaled capabilities in the coming decades. However, a series of megatrends will undermine the U.S. position as the most influential actor while enabling its rivals to move up the ranks fast. The U.S. military should stand ready to harness these dynamics to retain its edge in a recalibrated global operational threat environment and strategic landscape. Otherwise, protecting U.S. interests in a continuously evolving world will be a fruitless enterprise, one that will hasten the perceived U.S. decline as the greatest military power the world has ever known. This monograph helps explore and prepare for the possible and the probable in a transformed world of 2050. Relying on forecasting, scenarios, and wild cards, it envisions the evolution of the megatrends and an emerging operational threat environment and strategic landscape for the U.S. military.
Logistics accounts for around 9-10% of global CO2 emissions and will be one of the hardest economic sectors to decarbonize. This is partly because the demand for freight transport is expected to rise sharply over the next few decades, but also because it relies very heavily on fossil fuel. Decarbonizing Logistics outlines the nature and extent of the challenge we face in trying to achieve deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from logistical activities. It makes a detailed assessment of the available options, including restructuring supply chains, shifting freight to lower carbon transport modes and transforming energy use in the logistics sector. The options are examined from technological and managerial standpoints for all the main freight transport modes. Based on an up-to-date review of almost 600 publications and containing new analytical frameworks and research results, Decarbonizing Logistics is the first to provide a global, multi-disciplinary perspective on the subject. It is written by one of the foremost specialists in the field who has spent many years researching the links between logistics and climate change and been an adviser to governments, international organizations and companies on the topic.