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The Arab region is often perceived in terms of its negatives rather than its achievements. The cradle of Judaism, Christianity and Islam is nowadays mostly discussed in the context of problems related to rising religious fundamentalism, political instability due in part to the Arab-Israeli conflict or the persistent low status of women. The first Arab Human Development Report listed three deficits impeding human advancement in Arab countries, these were: knowledge acquisition and effective utilization; human rights, freedom and good governance; and woman’s empowerment. The demographic perspective on the Arab region again has tended to focused on the negative, with most studies ranging from uncontrollable immigration to untamable high fertility. Our perspective will first of all examine the differences in terms of demographic paths existing in the 22 countries that make up the Arab world, as well as any convergence occurring at different levels. While the notion that there is a unique and unchanging demographic pattern that is specifically Arab – one of universally high fertility that does not decline – is no longer tenable, the countries in the region are sufficiently similar to each other and distinct from their neighbors to be meaningfully discussed together. This is not to lose sight of the fact that “modernity, cultural openness, the relations between men and women, the effects of economic crisis and of development all vary from one sub-population to another, in North Africa and the Middle East, as elsewhere in the world.” The population projections by the United Nations Population Division essentially assume that fertility will steadily decline in the Arab region as it has elsewhere in the world. In the medium term, despite secular trends in declining fertility and mortality, there will in some respects be even greater demographic heterogeneity in the Arab region than is currently the case. As a result of this heterogeneity, the challenges posed by demographic change in the Arab region are more diverse than the attention to “youth bulges” suggests. It should not distract from the fact that a large number of Arab countries, in the GCC area, the Mashreq and North Africa, will within one generation already enter a phase characterized by progressive population ageing. Because of the rapid future growth in the number of elderly, the overall dependency ratio in the GCC area and Arab North Africa as a whole will, despite falling fertility, not drop much below current levels. This throws an under-appreciated light on the problem of very low participation rates in the labor market. Increasing economic opportunities for today’s youth are not just imperative to meet their own current needs for transitioning to productive and fully “adult” members of society, but also to ensure future sustainability.
This report assesses likely demographic and economic trends in the Arab world through 2020, focusing on changes that are likely to affect U.S. defense planning and U.S. policy in the region. The report assesses how long-term trends in demographic changes and the economies in this region are likely to affect U.S. interests. The report explores population shifts and economic changes in both energy-rich and energy-poor countries. Implications for U.S. policy from this report include slower population growth easing pressures on natural resources and public services and U.S. support for such programs as family planning and female education encouraging trends toward lower fertility rates. More-relaxed U.S. and European immigration and visa policies toward the citizens of the Middle East can enhance political and community ties between Arabs and the West. The United States, through the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, should encourage economic liberalization and free trade within the region.
This report assesses likely demographic and economic trends in the Arab world through 2020, focusing on changes that are likely to affect U.S. defense planning and U.S. policy in the region. The report assesses how long-term trends in demographic changes and the economies in this region are likely to affect U.S. interests. The report explores population shifts and economic changes in both energy-rich and energy-poor countries. Implications for U.S. policy from this report include slower population growth easing pressures on natural resources and public services and U.S. support for such programs as family planning and female education encouraging trends toward lower fertility rates. More-relaxed U.S. and European immigration and visa policies toward the citizens of the Middle East can enhance political and community ties between Arabs and the West. The United States, through the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, should encourage economic liberalization and free trade within the region.
This report, the outcome of a series of meetings of the Arab Foresight Group, an initiative undertaken by the EUISS, presents three alternative scenarios for the Arab world in 2025. These take into account those 'megatrends' which are unlikely to change, and outline three different ways in which policymakers can respond to the crises that currently beset the Middle East and North Africa.
What is the place of the Arab states as a new world order emerges? How can the Arab world respond positively to change as the new Europe emerges, political relationships are restructured, and the information revolution transforms the global economy? To what extent are the Arab states in danger of falling prey to increasing disunity and fragmentation? The book is the result of a major research programme in which Arab social scientists outline some of the paths which could be taken by the Arab world over the next 25 years. It presents a detailed analysis of resources in the Arab world – including population, employment, oil and water supplies and the trade and investment situation. The authors argue for greater popular participation and reassert the argument that only by pooling resources effectively can the Arab states establish their place in a world of national and supra-national blocs.
Current demographic trends raise new questions, challenges and controversies. Comparing demographic trends in Europe and the NAME-region (North Africa and the Middle East), this book demonstrates how population change interacts with changing economic landscapes, social distinctions and political realities. A variety of drivers contribute to demographic change in the various regions and countries considered, such as family policies, economic realities, the impact of educational differentials and the attitudes towards marriage. On the macro-level the new trends are restructuring the age composition of populations and are reshaping the life courses of individuals and families. In turn, the impact demographic forces have on the organisation of labour markets, on fiscal policies, on the care of the elderly, on migration flows and on political changes can be quite radical. The volume provides food for thought for those who are looking for a nuanced perspective on the background and future perspectives of demographic developments in Europe, for a discussion of recent demographic and political realities in the NAME countries, and for those who analyse the effects of contrasting demographic regimes on migration flows to and migration politics in Europe.
This volume reviews the public health concerns and challenges specific to the complex Arab world from a multidisciplinary perspective.
This set re-issues 4 volumes originally published between 1985 and 1991. They Examine the historical process of social formation that gave rise to the communal consciousness of the Arab nation and determined its sense of identityPresent detailed analysis of resources in the Arab world, including population, employment, oil and water suppliesDiscuss dimensions of Afro-Arab co-operation and the future of Afro-Arab RelationsAnalyse the relations between state and society in the Arab World.
The book discusses the demographic changes in Muslim countries. It thereby focuses on topics such as the demographic dividend and the demographic transition, labour market challenges, health care, universal education and gender issues. These challenges are addressed at a country level and include policy implications for the large majority of the Muslim countries covered in this book. Moreover, political consequences for Europe with respect to the integration of Muslims are presented to the reader.