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In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Stage One: Omonths + Developed by a speech language pathologist and mom, Babble Books is a developmentally appropriate series of books that foster natural speech development. Babble Books mirror the natural progression of speech sounds as they emerge and promote the acquisition of phonemic awareness (the ability to hear and manipulate sounds in words) through tried and tested techniques. Babble Books is divided into stages that specifically target the set of speech sounds that are developmentally appropriate for that stage. The Babble Book stages are defined by the age slightly before and during the critical period in which the speech sounds emerge so as to encourage auditory bombardment and verbal exploration prior to the expected age of mastery. Current research indicates that language rich environments are the key to the acquisition of speech and language skills. Parents and caregivers have the greatest impact on a child's speech and language development and, with the use of Babble Books, a solid foundation for effective communication, socialization, and future academic success can be established. Do not wait. Start babbling today and watch your child's speech flourish. The Babble Book series is the perfect gift for the holidays, baby showers, birthdays, and "anytime presents." A great tool for parents, grandparents, teachers, pediatricians, and speech therapists alike.
A language development book for babies that helps them turn their babbles into words. Written by a speech pathologist.
Discover how to connect with and inspire employees throughout an organization. Improve your leadership skills -- even if you aren't a "natural" communicator -- with a specific communication strategy that anyone can use. Authors Matha and Boehm present research showing that all managers can improve performance by using the principles outlined in Beyond the Babble. They explore why communication is crucial, how and when to do it, how to embed it in an organization's culture, and how to measure results. They also show how internal communications professionals can improve an organization's communication to the outside world.
"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram.
In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading.
“Education is the new buffalo” is a metaphor widely used among Indigenous peoples in Canada to signify the importance of education to their survival and ability to support themselves, as once Plains nations supported themselves as buffalo peoples. The assumption is that many of the pre-Contact ways of living are forever gone, so adaptation is necessary. But Chelsea Vowel asks, “Instead of accepting that the buffalo, and our ancestral ways, will never come back, what if we simply ensure that they do?” Inspired by classic and contemporary speculative fiction, Buffalo Is the New Buffalo explores science fiction tropes through a Métis lens: a Two-Spirit rougarou (shapeshifter) in the nineteenth century tries to solve a murder in her community and joins the nêhiyaw-pwat (Iron Confederacy) in order to successfully stop Canadian colonial expansion into the West. A Métis man is gored by a radioactive bison, gaining super strength, but losing the ability to be remembered by anyone not related to him by blood. Nanites babble to babies in Cree, virtual reality teaches transformation, foxes take human form and wreak havoc on hearts, buffalo roam free, and beings grapple with the thorny problem of healing from colonialism. Indigenous futurisms seek to discover the impact of colonization, remove its psychological baggage, and recover ancestral traditions. These eight short stories of “Métis futurism” explore Indigenous existence and resistance through the specific lens of being Métis. Expansive and eye-opening, Buffalo Is the New Buffalo rewrites our shared history in provocative and exciting ways.
One young boy is the key to the universe. In this supernatural thriller, a young boy is discovered to be the link between the human race and the farthest reaches of the universe. For Bobbie Cagle, the normal difficulties of growing up are overshadowed by his unique condition, being misdiagnosed as autistic. Caught between his loving mother and those who would use him for their own purposes, Bobbie stands at the center of the universe and forces the human race to the edge of their own evolutionary line. The Lord said, “If as one people speaking the same language they have begun to do this, then nothing they plan to do will be impossible for them. -Genesis 11:6 Upon the Towers of Babel, the people of the Earth scattered, and silence fell. Now, on the brink of a new age, the human race leaps forward into the evolutionary void and changes the course of human history forever. For young Bobbie Cagle, the normal difficulties of growing up are overshadowed by his unique condition. Placed on the spectrum, Bobbie’s inability to communicate normally is misdiagnosed for years as Autism and masks the great part in human history that he is destined to play. Unknowingly able to receive transmissions from the farthest reaches of the universe, young Bobbie’s life is forever changed when his unique ability is discovered. Coveted by those who would use him for their own purpose, Bobbie and his mother flee their home out of desperation and fear. In the course of their escape, the truth behind Bobbie’s gift and the effects it may have on the planet begin to the reveal themselves, all the while the future of the human race hangs in the balance. Find out what fate has in store for the human race and grab your copy of Babble today!
The founder and director of the Thirty Million Words Initiative, Professor Dana Suskind, explains why the most important—and astoundingly simple—thing you can do for your child’s future success in life is to to talk to them. What nurtures the brain to optimum intelligence and stability? It is a secret hiding in plain sight: the most important thing we can do for our children is to have conversations with them. The way you talk with your growing child literally builds his or her brain. Parent talk can drastically improve school readiness and lifelong learning in everything from math to art. Indeed, parent–child talk is a fundamental, critical factor in building grit, self-control, leadership skills, and generosity. It is crucial to making the most in life of the luck you have with your genes. This landmark account of a new scientific perspective describes what works and what doesn't (baby talk is fine; relentless correction isn't). Discover how to create the best "language environments" for children by following the simple structure of the Three Ts: Tune In; Talk More; Take Turns. Dr. Suskind and her colleagues around the country have worked with thousands of families; now their insights and successful, measured approaches are available to all. This is the first book to reveal how and why the first step in nurturing successful lives is talking to children in ways that build their brains. Your family—and our nation—need to know. *Nominated for the Books for a Better Life Award*