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The second problem, that of the relationships between each index and mean charts, is discussed in Part 3.
In order to establish a meteorological forecasting system, it is necessary to find a direct relationship between measurable physical states of the atmosphere and the end product, the weather element to be forecast. The long range forecaster is quite limited in his choice of physical parameters. In fact only the very large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere which can be expressed in terms of mean pressure patterns are amenable to long range analysis. Thus the problem reduces to finding a link between mean planetary pressure patterns and precipitation in the Hawaiian Islands
The objects of the American Meteorological Society are "the development and dissemination of knowledge of meteorology in all its phases and applications, and the advancement of its professional ideals." The organization of the Society took place in affiliation with the American Association for the Advancement of Science at Saint Louis, Missouri, December 29, 1919, and its incorporation, at Washington, D. C., January 21, 1920. The work of the Society is carried on by the Bulletin, the Journal, and Meteorological Monographs, by papers and discussions at meetings of the Society, through the offices of the Secretary and the Executive Secretary, and by correspondence. All of the Americas are represented in the membership of the Society as well as many foreign countries.
Five-day mean and daily meteorological data observed since 1949 are analyzed empirically in order to derive useful climatological and forecasting relationships between surface weather elements and the circulation pattern. The synoptic climatology of 5-day precipitation, surface temperature, 700-1000-mb. thickness, and sea level pressure is investigated by constructing fields of simple linear correlation between these elements and the simultaneous anomaly of 700-mb. height over North American and adjacent oceans. The relation of precipitation and temperature to the field of sea level pressure is studied in a similar fashion. On the basis of the analogy are drawn concerning the association between each weather element and other meteorological factors. Schematic models are then constructed showing preferred portions of the circulation pattern at 700-mb. and sea level for opposite extremes of weather in different parts of the United States.
"The primary purpose of this paper is to present a significant scale of meteorological events. This scale, the mesoscale, is either overlooked or intentionally ignored in much of the analysis being done today. The reason normally given for this omission is the fact that these meteorological motions are essentially 'noise' superimposed on larger-scale circulations and it is with these larger-scale circulations that most of the meteorologists' efforts (both theoretical and synoptic) have been concemed. It is our opinion, however, that this 'noise' is directly tied up with the local weather and that the meteorologist will have to despair of ever being able to predict this local weather with a satisfactory degree of confidence unless he has accurnte knowledge of what is going on in the mesometeorological scale of motion. In addition to focussing the readers attention on this scale of motion, it is also the purpose of this paper to serve as a preliminary manual for mesoanalysis. Although most of the analysis techniques have been given elsewhere (T. Fujita, 'Results of Detailed Synoptic Studies of Squall Lines', Tellus, vol. 7, No. 4, 1955, pp. 405-436), they are described fully here for completeness. Moreover, all of the ditta used in the analysis have also been reproduced in the form of station time sections. It is intended that these will serve two purposes: (1) The reader is encouraged to follow the techniques presented, perform his own mesoanalyses and compare them with the results given here, and (2) the reader will be able to interpret the sequence of events as they transpired at any station in terms of the mesosystems, developed in the analysis, which passed the station. Finally, we wish to point out that we have concerned ourselves here with analysis and not with explanation. The analyses clearly show the formation, development, movement, and dissipat ion of mesostruct ures. From this point of view the primary purpose of the paper is realized. However, there still remains the problem of explaining the life history of the mesostrnctures from a dynamical point of view"--Preface
The underlying concept of the paper is that the amount of precipitation required for the near-normal operation of the established economy of an area during some stated period is dependent on the average climate of the area and on the prevailing meteorological conditions both during and preceding the month or period in question. A method for computing this required precipitation is demonstrated.