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Every day decision making and decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. Main drawback of the existing decision theories is namely incapability to deal with imperfect information and modeling vague preferences. Actually, a paradigm of non-numerical probabilities in decision making has a long history and arose also in Keynes’s analysis of uncertainty. There is a need for further generalization – a move to decision theories with perception-based imperfect information described in NL. The languages of new decision models for human-centric systems should be not languages based on binary logic but human-centric computational schemes able to operate on NL-described information. Development of new theories is now possible due to an increased computational power of information processing systems which allows for computations with imperfect information, particularly, imprecise and partially true information, which are much more complex than computations over numbers and probabilities. The monograph exposes the foundations of a new decision theory with imperfect decision-relevant information on environment and a decision maker’s behavior. This theory is based on the synthesis of the fuzzy sets theory with perception-based information and the probability theory. The book is self containing and represents in a systematic way the decision theory with imperfect information into the educational systems. The book will be helpful for teachers and students of universities and colleges, for managers and specialists from various fields of business and economics, production and social sphere.
Every day decision making and decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. Main drawback of the existing decision theories is namely incapability to deal with imperfect information and modeling vague preferences. Actually, a paradigm of non-numerical probabilities in decision making has a long history and arose also in Keynes’s analysis of uncertainty. There is a need for further generalization – a move to decision theories with perception-based imperfect information described in NL. The languages of new decision models for human-centric systems should be not languages based on binary logic but human-centric computational schemes able to operate on NL-described information. Development of new theories is now possible due to an increased computational power of information processing systems which allows for computations with imperfect information, particularly, imprecise and partially true information, which are much more complex than computations over numbers and probabilities. The monograph exposes the foundations of a new decision theory with imperfect decision-relevant information on environment and a decision maker’s behavior. This theory is based on the synthesis of the fuzzy sets theory with perception-based information and the probability theory. The book is self containing and represents in a systematic way the decision theory with imperfect information into the educational systems. The book will be helpful for teachers and students of universities and colleges, for managers and specialists from various fields of business and economics, production and social sphere.
Uncertain computation is a system of computation and reasoning in which the objects of computation are not values of variables but restrictions on values of variables.This compendium includes uncertain computation examples based on interval arithmetic, probabilistic arithmetic, fuzzy arithmetic, Z-number arithmetic, and arithmetic with geometric primitives.The principal problem with the existing decision theories is that they do not have capabilities to deal with such environment. Up to now, no books where decision theories based on all generalizations level of information are considered. Thus, this self-containing volume intends to overcome this gap between real-world settings' decisions and their formal analysis.
Nowadays, voluminous textbooks and monographs in fuzzy logic are devoted only to separate or some combination of separate facets of fuzzy logic. There is a lack of a single book that presents a comprehensive and self-contained theory of fuzzy logic and its applications.Written by world renowned authors, Lofti Zadeh, also known as the Father of Fuzzy Logic, and Rafik Aliev, who are pioneers in fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets, this unique compendium includes all the principal facets of fuzzy logic such as logical, fuzzy-set-theoretic, epistemic and relational. Theoretical problems are prominently illustrated and illuminated by numerous carefully worked-out and thought-through examples.This invaluable volume will be a useful reference guide for academics, practitioners, graduates and undergraduates in fuzzy logic and its applications.
Real-world information is imperfect and is usually described in natural language (NL). Moreover, this information is often partially reliable and a degree of reliability is also expressed in NL. In view of this, the concept of a Z-number is a more adequate concept for the description of real-world information. The main critical problem that naturally arises in processing Z-numbers-based information is the computation with Z-numbers. Nowadays, there is no arithmetic of Z-numbers suggested in existing literature.This book is the first to present a comprehensive and self-contained theory of Z-arithmetic and its applications. Many of the concepts and techniques described in the book, with carefully worked-out examples, are original and appear in the literature for the first time.The book will be helpful for professionals, academics, managers and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences, artificial intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics.
This book presents the proceedings of the 10th Conference on Theory and Applications of Soft Computing, Computing with Words and Perceptions, ICSCCW 2019, held in Prague, Czech Republic, on August 27–28, 2019. It includes contributions from diverse areas of soft computing and computing with words, such as uncertain computation, decision-making under imperfect information, neuro-fuzzy approaches, deep learning, natural language processing, and others. The topics of the papers include theory and applications of soft computing, information granulation, computing with words, computing with perceptions, image processing with soft computing, probabilistic reasoning, intelligent control, machine learning, fuzzy logic in data analytics and data mining, evolutionary computing, chaotic systems, soft computing in business, economics and finance, fuzzy logic and soft computing in earth sciences, fuzzy logic and soft computing in engineering, fuzzy logic and soft computing in material sciences, soft computing in medicine, biomedical engineering, and pharmaceutical sciences. Showcasing new ideas in the field of theories of soft computing and computing with words and their applications in economics, business, industry, education, medicine, earth sciences, and other fields, it promotes the development and implementation of these paradigms in various real-world contexts. This book is a useful guide for academics, practitioners and graduates.
Every day decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. The principal problems with the existing decision theories are that they do not have capability to deal with situations in which probabilities and events are imprecise. In this book, we describe a new theory of decision making with imperfect information. The aim is to shift the foundation of decision analysis and economic behavior from the realm bivalent logic to the realm fuzzy logic and Z-restriction, from external modeling of behavioral decisions to the framework of combined states.This book will be helpful for professionals, academics, managers and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences, artificial intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics.
This book presents the proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Applications of Fuzzy Systems, Soft Computing, and Artificial Intelligence Tools, ICAFS-2020, held in Budva, Montenegro, on August 27–28, 2020. It includes contributions from diverse areas of fuzzy systems, soft computing, AI tools such as uncertain computation, decision making under imperfect information, deep learning and others. The topics of the papers include theory and application of soft computing, neuro-fuzzy technology, intelligent control, deep learning–machine learning, fuzzy logic in data analytics, evolutionary computing, fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence in engineering, social sciences, business, economics, material sciences and others.
This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.