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With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.
This paper summarizes the methods and types of indicators that are often employed, both insid and outside the IMF, to assess whether exchange rates are broadly in line with economic fundamentals.
The international monetary system, and the disparate systems that make it up, are complex and there are many fallacies surrounding the ways in which they work. This book provides a clear and rigorous understanding of these systems and their possible consequences.
This paper addresses several fundamental issues raised by recent developments in the world economy and considers their implications for the design and functioning of the international monetary system. We do not make any proposals. The four issues examined in the paper are: (1) Can the exchange rate regime do much to discipline fiscal policy?; (2) What are the extent and costs of reduced monetary independence under greater fixity of exchange rates?; (3) How can the equilibrium exchange rate best be determined?; and (4) Does a well functioning international monetary system require a clearly defined set of rules, an acknowledged leader, and an explicit anchor?
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009 the central banks of the advanced countries have taken unprecedented actions to reflate and stimulate their economies. There have been significant differences in the timing and pace of these actions. These independent monetary policy actions have had significant spillover effects on the economies and monetary policy strategies of other advanced countries. In addition the monetary policy actions and interventions of the advanced countries have had a significant impact on the emerging market economies leading to the charge of 'currency wars.' The perceived negative consequences of spillovers from the actions of national central banks has led to calls for international monetary policy coordination. The arguments for coordination based on game theory are the same today as back in the 1980s, which led to accords which required that participant countries follow policies to improve global welfare at the expense of domestic fundamentals. This led to disastrous consequences. An alternative approach to the international spillovers of national monetary policy actions is to view them as deviations from rules based monetary policy. In this view a return to rules based monetary policy and a rolling back of the " global great deviation" by each country's central bank would lead to a beneficial policy outcome without the need for explicit policy coordination. In this book we report the results from a recent conference which brought together academics, market participants, and policy makers to focus on these issues. The consensus of much of the conference was on the need for a classic rules based reform of the international monetary system.
In the two decades prior to publication of this 1994 book, international monetary relations had been characterised by latent instability, and then by severe tensions. Yet the issue of reforming the international monetary system does not appear on the agenda of the policy makers of the major countries involved. The International Monetary System tries to analyse this apparent contradiction. It brings together contributions from some of the most authoritative academic economists and monetary officials, and examines each of the fundamental functions of the international monetary system. There is broad support for improving present monetary arrangements with the aim of ensuring more stable conditions in monetary and financial markets and of promoting the orderly adjustment of payments disequilibria. For political reasons a fully-fledged reform exercise is unlikely, but very few experts seem to like the status quo. This book provides the reader with a comprehensive account of the institutional and policy changes required to manage an increasingly integrated and interdependent global monetary and financial system.