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This paper investigates the impact of fuel price increases on social unrests in addition to the macroeconomic, social and institutional factors driving this relationship. Using the IV fixed-effect estimator on a sample of 101 developing countries during 2001-2020, we find that changes in fuel prices are positively associated with the number of social unrests, mainly anti-government demonstrations. This impact is however amplified: (i) during economic downturns and periods of high exchange rate instability; (ii) when government spending is low, especially on health and education, thus suggesting that streamlining fuel subsides and diverting parts of the reform savings to the health and education sectors is an appropriate policy that could appease social tensions; (iii) in countries with high income inequality, low institutional quality and high level of corruption. The results are robust to a battery of tests, including the use of an instrumental variable approach to address reverse causality concerns given that social unrests could also prompt a freeze in fuel prices. We also find consistent results using either changes in diesel or gasoline prices. Overall, the findings of the paper provide support to the grievance and deprivation theory in explaining the association between fuel price increases and social unrests, but fail to find evidence for the resource theory and the theory of political opportunities.
This report provides a first broad assessment of the impact of the surge in food and fuel prices on the balance of payments, budgets, prices, and poverty of a large sample of countries. It reviews countries’ macroeconomic policy responses to date and also discusses Fund advice for managing the price increases. Policies should (i) ensure that food and finance reaches the most affected countries as quickly as possible, (ii) include targeted and scaled-up social measures, and (iii) avoid high costs in terms of macroeconomic instability or loss in future agricultural production. Collaborating with international partners, the Fund also stands ready to provide balance of payments assistance. As the paper presents an initial assessment of a still-evolving situation, the somewhat tentative nature of the analysis should be borne in mind.
This paper investigates the impact of domestic fuel price increases on export growth in a sample of 77 developing countries over the period 2000-2014. Using a fixed-effect estimator and the local projection approach, we find that an increase in domestic gasoline or diesel price adversely affects real non-fuel export growth, but only in the short run as the impact phases out within two years after the shock. The results also suggest that the negative effect of fuel price increase on exports is mainly noticeable in countries with a high-energy dependency ratio and countries where access to an alternative source of energy, such as electricity, is constrained, thus preventing producers from altering energy consumption mix in response to fuel price changes.

Fuel Prices

Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Trade and Industry Committee

Published: 2005-06

Total Pages: 574


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The Committee's report examines the recent price increases in gas supply and the resulting rises in electricity prices (as about 40 per cent of electricity generation in England and Wales is gas-fired), focusing on the effects of the price increases on all types of energy customers. The report seeks to assess whether the rises are a temporary response to short-term supply problems or the start of a long-term increase in UK energy prices, and to consider possible responses by Ofgem, the regulator of the gas and electricity markets, and the DTI to the problem. Topics discussed include: Ofgem's report into wholesale gas prices and reactions to it; the decline in production from the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS); gas storage and supply issues; the behaviour and transparency of the gas market and regulation issues; oil indexation in gas contracts; competition within European markets; vertical integration; the electricity market; new infrastructure projects; and the future of gas prices.