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The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
The Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019-2020 provides novel analytical insights, empirical evidence, and actionable recommendations for governments seeking to enhance investor confidence in times of uncertainty. The report's findings and policy recommendations are organized around "3 ICs" - they provide guidance to governments on how to increase investments' contributions to their country's development, enhance investor confidence, and foster their economies' investment competitiveness. The report presents results of a new survey of more than 2,400 business executives representing FDI in 10 large developing countries: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. The results show that over half of surveyed foreign businesses have already been adversely affected by policy uncertainty, experiencing a decrease in employment, firm productivity, or investment. Foreign investors report that supporting political environments, stable macroeconomic conditions, and conducive regulatory regimes are their top three investment decision factors. Moreover, the report's new global database of regulatory risk shows that predictability and transparency increase investor confidence and FDI flows. The report also assesses the impact of FD! on poverty, inequality, employment, and firm performance using evidence from various countries. It shows that FDI in developing countries yields benefits to their firms and citizens-including more and better-paid jobs-but governments need to be vigilant about possible adverse consequences on income distribution. The report is organized in S chapters: Chapter 1 presents the results of the foreign investor survey. Chapter 2 explores the differential performance and development impact of greenfield FDI, local firms acquired by multinational corporations {i.e. brownfield FDI), and domestically-owned firms using evidence from six countries. Chapter 3 assesses the impact of FDI on poverty, inequality, employment and wages, using case study evidence from Ethiopia, Turkey and Vietnam. Chapter 4 presents a new framework to measure FDI regulatory risk that is linked to specific legal and regulatory measures. Chapter S focuses on factors for increasing the effectiveness of investment promotion agencies.
Should our research and policy advice be guided by a modern version of capital fundamentalism, in which capital and investment are viewed as the primary determinants of economic development and long- run growth? No. Capital accumulation seems to be part of the process of economic development, not its igniting source.
This book offers a critical analysis of recent developments in the automotive industry of East-Central Europe (ECE). Economists, industry specialists and national governments have considered the rapid development of the automotive industry in ECE in the past twenty years an unqualified success. This rapid growth has been based on large inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) from Western Europe, North America, Japan and South Korea, and it significantly contributed to GDP growth, created thousands of new jobs, and completely transformed the previously existing automotive industry in the region. This volume offers an analysis that goes beyond uncritical celebratory accounts of this rapid growth. It is based on original, detailed firm-level research conducted by the author in Czechia and Slovakia between 2009 and 2015 that covered assembly firms and the networks of component suppliers. Theoretically and conceptually, the analysis will draw on the global production networks and global value chains perspectives. Drawing on the original empirical data and on additional available information, this volume concentrates on several important questions related to the development of the automotive industry in ECE in the 2000s:• The role of FDI in the rapid development of the automotive industry after 1990 and particularly in the 2000s.• The upgrading of the automotive industry in East-Central Europe through FDI• The position of ECE in the automotive industry research and development (R&D)• The effects of the 2008-2009 economic crisis in the automotive industry of ECE.• The role of state in the rapid development of the automotive industry in ECE in the 1990s and 2000s.• The effects of FDI on domestic firms in the form of linkages between foreign-owned and domestic firms and spillovers from foreign-owned to domestic firms.
This report assesses the potential for linkages between foreign direct investment (FDI) and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Czechia, and provides policy recommendations to foster productivity and innovation spillovers to the local economy. The report examines the quality of investment that the country attracts, the productive and innovative capacities of Czech SMEs, and a broad range of economic, business and policy conditions that can strengthen knowledge and technology diffusion from foreign multinationals to domestic enterprises. It also assesses Czechia’s institutional environment and policy mix across the areas of international investment, SMEs and entrepreneurship, innovation and regional development, noting areas for policy reform. The report includes a regional focus on the potential for FDI and SME linkages and spillovers in South Moravia and Usti.
The effect on developing countries of the arrival of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been a subject of controversy for decades in the development community. The debate over the relationship between FDI in developing countries and the progress of these countries towards human development is an ongoing and often heated one. Adopting an interdisciplinary perspective combining insights from international investment law, human rights law and economics, this book offers an original contribution to the debate. It explores how improvements ...
"Political democratization and economic globalization have been two of the most important global trends of the past few decades. But, how are they connected? Do the domestic political institutions affect a country's attractiveness to foreign investors? Can countries that democratize attract relatively more foreign investments? Drawing on three in-depth case studies of oil-rich countries and statistical analyses of 132 countries over three decades, Oksan Bayulgen demonstrates that the link between democratization and FDI is nonlinear. Both authoritarian regimes and consolidated democracies have institutional capabilities that, though different, are attractive to foreign investors. Democracies can provide long-term stability, and authoritarian regimes can offer considerable flexibility. The regimes that have started on the road to democracy, but have not yet completed it, tend to have political institutions that provide neither flexibility nor stability. These hybrid regimes, then, also find it relatively more difficult to construct a policy environment that is attractive to foreign investments. These findings have deep implications for the link between democratization and globalization, but also how globalization may affect political, social, and economic development"--Provided by publisher.
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.