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Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
As managers expand their international business operations, they are confronted by the puzzling and vexing world of foreign exchange (FX) rates. This book is designed as a resource that can help managers quickly understand and navigate the FX market. The text may be used as an introductory module in a course in international finance, whether the course is oriented to international markets, international investments, or international corporate finance. The primary intended audience is an applied MBA course aimed at executives, managers, and would-be managers. After an introduction to FX rates, the author covers the important topic FX rate valuation. It is important for managers to understand when an FX rate may be incorrectly valued, as this situation may have a bearing on corporate decisions on strategy, risk management, capital structure, and overseas investments and operations. He also discusses the mechanics of forward FX contracts and their use in managing the risk of future foreign currency cash flow and includes a case that unifies the ideas. The case company is faced with FX exposure in the revenues from a proposed new foreign customer. The decision maker applies the text material to estimate whether the FX rate is over-, under-, or correctly valued. The final decisions are whether to expand sales to the foreign market and whether to hedge the FX risk.
History of monetary system --Balance of payments and exchange rates --The foreign exchange markets --Exchange rate determination and forecasting --Exchange rates and international parity conditions --Foreign currency derivatives --Foreign exchange exposure and its management --Multinational corporations and international cost of capital --Multinational capital budgeting --Foreign direct investment and portfolio theory --International trade finance --Political risk and its management.
These seventeen essays provide an accessible and thorough reference for understanding the role of exchange rates in the international monetary system since 1973, when the rates were allowed to float. The essays analyze such issues as exchange rate movements, exchange risk premia, investor expectations of exchange rates and behavior of exchange rates in different systems. Frankel's sound empirical treatment of exchange rate questions shows that it is possible to produce work that is interesting from a purely intellectual viewpoint while contributing to practical knowledge of the real world of international economics and finance.The essays have been organized in a way that provides an introduction to the field of empirical international finance. Part I documents the steady reduction in barriers to international capital movement and leads logically to part II, which explains how exchange rates are determined. Both monetary and portfolio-based models are surveyed in part II, providing a clear transition to the topic of part III; the possible existence of an exchange risk premium. Part IV applies the tools discussed in earlier sections to explore various policy questions related to exchange rate expectations such as whether foreign exchange intervention matters and whether the European monetary system had become credible by 1991. Each part begins with a detailed introduction explaining not only the central issues of that section but also suggesting connections with other essays in the book.Jeffrey A. Frankel is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement.
This book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks (ANNs), creating and applying the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges.
The exchange rate is a crucial variable linking a nation's domestic economy to the international market. Thus choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth. Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry-policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades. Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.
A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas
Volatile exchange rates and how to manage them are a contentious topic whenever economic policymakers gather in international meetings. This book examines the broad parameters of exchange rate policy in light of both high-powered theory and real-world experience. What are the costs and benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates? How much of a role should the exchange rate play in monetary policy? Why don't volatile exchange rates destabilize inflation and output? The principal finding of this book is that using monetary policy to fight exchange rate volatility, including through the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime, leads to greater volatility of employment, output, and inflation. In other words, the "cure" for exchange rate volatility is worse than the disease. This finding is demonstrated in economic models, in historical case studies, and in statistical analysis of the data. The book devotes considerable attention to understanding the reasons why volatile exchange rates do not destabilize inflation and output. The book concludes that many countries would benefit from allowing greater flexibility of their exchange rates in order to target monetary policy at stabilization of their domestic economies. Few, if any, countries would benefit from a move in the opposite direction.
A comprehensive guide to managing global financial risk From the balance of payment exposure to foreign exchange and interest rate risk, to credit derivatives and other exotic options, futures, and swaps for mitigating and transferring risk, this book provides a simple yet comprehensive analysis of complex derivatives pricing and their application in risk management. The risk posed by foreign exchange transactions stems from the volatility of the exchange rate, the volatility of the interest rates, and factors unique to individual companies which are interrelated. To protect and hedge against adverse currency and interest rate changes, multinational corporations need to take concrete steps for mitigating these risks. Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk offers a thorough treatment of price, foreign currency, and interest rate risk management practices of multinational corporations in a dynamic global economy. It lays out the pros and cons of various hedging instruments, as well as the economic cost benefit analysis of alternative hedging vehicles. Written in a detailed yet user–friendly manner, this resource provides treasurers and other financial managers with the tools they need to manage their various exposures to credit, price, and foreign exchange risk. Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk covers various swaps in this geometrically growing field with notional principal in excess of $120 trillion. From caplet and corridors to call and put swaptions this book covers the micro structure of the swaps, options, futures, and foreign exchange markets. From credit default swap and transfer and convertibility options to asset swap switch and weather derivatives this book illustrates their simple pricing and application. To show real-world examples, each chapter includes a case study highlighting a specific problem, as well as a set of steps to solve it. Numerous charts accompanied with actual Wall Street figures provide the reader with the opportunity to comprehend and appreciate the role and function of derivatives, which are often misunderstood in the financial market. This detailed resource will guide the individual, government and multinational corporations safely through the maze of various exposures. A must-read for treasures, controllers, money mangers, portfolio managers, security analyst and academics, Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk represents an important collection of up-to-date risk management solutions. Ghassem A. Homaifar is a professor of financial economics at Middle Tennessee State University. He has Master of Science in Industrial Management from State University of New York at Stony Brook and PhD in Finance from University of Alabama in 1982. He is the author of numerous articles that have appeared in the Journal of Risk and Insurance, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Weltwirtschsftliches Archiv Review of World Economics, Advances in Futures and Options Research,Applied Financial Economics, Applied Economics, International Economics, and Global Finance Journal.