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The first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting – one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method – Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R – open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Learn traditional and cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and deep learning techniques and best practices for time series forecasting, including global forecasting models, conformal prediction, and transformer architectures Key Features Apply ML and global models to improve forecasting accuracy through practical examples Enhance your time series toolkit by using deep learning models, including RNNs, transformers, and N-BEATS Learn probabilistic forecasting with conformal prediction, Monte Carlo dropout, and quantile regressions Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in PDF format Book Description Predicting the future, whether it's market trends, energy demand, or website traffic, has never been more crucial. This practical, hands-on guide empowers you to build and deploy powerful time series forecasting models. Whether you’re working with traditional statistical methods or cutting-edge deep learning architectures, this book provides structured learning and best practices for both. Starting with the basics, this data science book introduces fundamental time series concepts, such as ARIMA and exponential smoothing, before gradually progressing to advanced topics, such as machine learning for time series, deep neural networks, and transformers. As part of your fundamentals training, you’ll learn preprocessing, feature engineering, and model evaluation. As you progress, you’ll also explore global forecasting models, ensemble methods, and probabilistic forecasting techniques. This new edition goes deeper into transformer architectures and probabilistic forecasting, including new content on the latest time series models, conformal prediction, and hierarchical forecasting. Whether you seek advanced deep learning insights or specialized architecture implementations, this edition provides practical strategies and new content to elevate your forecasting skills. What you will learn Build machine learning models for regression-based time series forecasting Apply powerful feature engineering techniques to enhance prediction accuracy Tackle common challenges like non-stationarity and seasonality Combine multiple forecasts using ensembling and stacking for superior results Explore cutting-edge advancements in probabilistic forecasting and handle intermittent or sparse time series Evaluate and validate your forecasts using best practices and statistical metrics Who this book is for This book is ideal for data scientists, financial analysts, quantitative analysts, machine learning engineers, and researchers who need to model time-dependent data across industries, such as finance, energy, meteorology, risk analysis, and retail. Whether you are a professional looking to apply cutting-edge models to real-world problems or a student aiming to build a strong foundation in time series analysis and forecasting, this book will provide the tools and techniques you need. Familiarity with Python and basic machine learning concepts is recommended.
To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.
This comprehensive edited volume is the first of its kind, designed to serve as a textbook for long-duration business analytics programs. It can also be used as a guide to the field by practitioners. The book has contributions from experts in top universities and industry. The editors have taken extreme care to ensure continuity across the chapters. The material is organized into three parts: A) Tools, B) Models and C) Applications. In Part A, the tools used by business analysts are described in detail. In Part B, these tools are applied to construct models used to solve business problems. Part C contains detailed applications in various functional areas of business and several case studies. Supporting material can be found in the appendices that develop the pre-requisites for the main text. Every chapter has a business orientation. Typically, each chapter begins with the description of business problems that are transformed into data questions; and methodology is developed to solve these questions. Data analysis is conducted using widely used software, the output and results are clearly explained at each stage of development. These are finally transformed into a business solution. The companion website provides examples, data sets and sample code for each chapter.
The international conference on Automation and Robotics-ICAR2011 is held during December 12-13, 2011 in Dubai, UAE. The proceedings of ICAR2011 have been published by Springer Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, which include 163 excellent papers selected from more than 400 submitted papers. The conference is intended to bring together the researchers and engineers/technologists working in different aspects of intelligent control systems and optimization, robotics and automation, signal processing, sensors, systems modeling and control, industrial engineering, production and management. This part of proceedings includes 82 papers contributed by many researchers in relevant topic areas covered at ICAR2011 from various countries such as France, Japan, USA, Korea and China etc. The session topic of this proceeding is signal processing and industrial engineering, production and management, which includes papers about signal reconstruction, mechanical sensors, real-time systems control system identification, change detection problems, business process modeling, production planning, scheduling and control, computer-based manufacturing technologies, systems modeling and simulation, facilities planning and management, quality control and management, precision engineering, intelligent design and manufacturing. The papers in this proceedings focus on industry engineering to promote efficiency and affect for the world, which typically showed their advanced research work recently in their various field. I am sure that discussing with many colleagues will give much more creative idea for each other on ICAR2011. All of papers with powerful evidence and detail demonstration involved the authors’ numerous time and energy will be proved valuable by their unexhausted exploring sprit. Sincere thanks to the committee and all the authors, in additionally, including anonymous reviewers from many fields and organizations. They pointed out us direction to go on research work for the world.
A brand new collection of insights and actionable techniques for world-class supply chain management… 2 authoritative books, now in a convenient e-format, at a great price! 2 authoritative eBooks deliver comprehensive resources for managing state-of-the-art supply chains in challenging global environments Master the latest techniques for overcoming your most difficult operations and supply chain management challenges! This unique 2 eBook package will help you address issues ranging from Lean/Six Sigma to transportation and warehousing, and anticipate emerging global issues – so you can transform them from risks into competitive advantages. The Encyclopedia of Operations Management is the perfect single-volume "field manual" for every supply chain or operations management practitioner and student. Nearly 1,500 well-organized, up-to-date definitions cover: accounting, customer service, distribution, e-business, economics, finance, forecasting, HR, industrial engineering, industrial relations, inventory management, healthcare management, Lean, logistics, maintenance engineering, management IS, marketing/sales, product development, operations research, organizational behavior/management, time management, production planning/control, purchasing, reliability, quality, service management, simulation, statistics, strategic management, systems engineering, supply chain management, theory of constraints, transportation, warehousing, and more. Next, in Global Macrotrends and Their Impact on Supply Chain Management, Chad W. Autry, Thomas J. Goldsby, John E. Bell prepare you to manage supply and demand in a world marked by demographic and economic shifts that will turn markets upside down. They offer a complete decision framework and practical tools, insights, and guidance for systematically mitigating new risks and building long-term competitive advantage. This book focuses squarely on emerging societal, technological, geopolitical, and environmental macro trends, helping you assess the impacts of population growth, migration, urbanization; socioeconomic change, global connectivity, environmental issues, geopolitics, growing scarcity, transportation congestion, aging infrastructure, and emerging supply-demand imbalances. It also provides comprehensive mitigation strategies based on logistics, resource recovery, resource protection, and demand/supply shaping. This collection will be an indispensable resource for all supply chain, logistics, sourcing, and operations management executives, managers, and professionals; and for all operations/supply chain research professionals, instructors, and graduate students. From world-renowned supply chain management experts Arthur V. Hill, Chad W. Autry, Thomas J. Goldsby, and John E. Bell
A brand new collection of state-of-the-art operations management tools and tactics… 3 authoritative books, now in a convenient e-format, at a great price! 3 authoritative eBooks bring together today’s most valuable new operations management techniques and solutions! Apply today’s most innovative operations management techniques to improve performance and value in any organization -- even the most complex or constrained! In High Performance Operations, Hillel Glazer shows how to optimize business performance and profitability while maintaining strong governance and compliance. Glazer demonstrates how to integrate lean and systems thinking, and systematically incorporating compliance into planning for overall performance, value, and profitability, rather than viewing it as an end in itself. Learn how to clarify competing interests and implement pre-conditions for success; use systems thinking to promote operational excellence; eliminate single points of failure; establish proof-of-performance; scale your successes, and get more of "what went right"! The Encyclopedia of Operations Management is the perfect single-volume "field manual" for every OM or supply chain professional. Nearly 1,500 well-organized, up-to-date definitions cover every facet of supply chain design, planning, management, and optimization. For the first time, this remarkable reference brings together up-to-the-minute information about topics ranging from accounting and customer service to transportation and warehousing. Next, in The Operations Manager's Toolbox , Randal Wilson helps you use proven project management (PM) tools and techniques to supercharge efficiency, free up resources, eliminate unnecessary meetings, and get more done faster. Wilson shows how to apply PM to complete crucial "smaller" tasks that can deliver rapid and sizable improvements. You’ll learn how to plan, implement, and measure the success of high-impact changes, and organize key tasks so they actually get done. Discover specific techniques for eliminating waste in engineering, manufacturing, distribution, and inventory. Next, learn how to use PM to manage teams, schedules, budgets, and resources more effectively, and systematically predict and mitigate operational risks. Whatever your role in operations management, this unique eBook collection will help you perform far more effectively – in your organization, and in your career! From world-renowned operations management experts Hillel Glazer, Arthur V. Hill, and Randal Wilson
A brand new collection of world-class supply chain design solutions… 3 authoritative books, now in a convenient e-format, at a great price! 3 authoritative eBooks deliver state-of-the-art guidance for designing and optimizing highly competitive global supply chains! This unique 3 eBook package will help you design state-of-the-art supply chains that deliver rapid, quantifiable, and sustainable competitive advantage. The Encyclopedia of Operations Management is the perfect single-volume "field manual" for every supply chain or operations management practitioner and student. Nearly 1,500 well-organized, up-to-date definitions cover every facet of supply chain design, planning, management, and optimization. Next, in Reinventing the Supply Chain Life Cycle, Marc J. Schniederjans and Stephen B. LeGrand show how to optimize supply chains throughout their entire lifecycle: creation, growth, maturity, and decline! Reflecting up-to-the-minute "in-the-trenches" experience and pioneering research, this book illuminates the complex transformational processes associated with managing complex supply chains that incorporate multiple products and services within ever-changing networks. They walk you through: starting, creating, and building new supply chains; realigning them for growth; adjusting to dynamic change, readjusting networks, building flexibility, and managing new risks. Next, they offer practical, realistic guidance for realigning "mature" supply chains, innovating, controlling costs; and smoothly managing declining demand. Throughout, they offer invaluable insights, tools, and examples for negotiation, performance measurement, anticipating change, improving agility, meeting commitments to social responsibility and the law; and more. Finally, in Supply Chain Network Design, four leading IBM and Northwestern University experts show how to use strategic supply chain network design to achieve dramatic new savings. They integrate rigorous principles and practical applications to help you select the right number, location, territory, and size of warehouses, plants, and production lines; and optimize the flow of all products through even the most complex global supply chain. You’ll find better ways to decide what (and where) to manufacture internally; and which products to outsource (and to whom). You’ll get help managing cost vs. service-level tradeoffs; using analytics to improve decision-making; and re-optimizing regularly for even more savings. Whatever your role in supply chain design, this collection will help you systematically optimize performance, customer value, and profitability. From world-renowned supply chain experts Arthur V. Hill, Marc J. Schniederjans, Stephen B. LeGrand, Michael Watson, Sara Lewis, Peter Cacioppi, and Jay Jayaraman
This book is a comprehensive guide that explores the intersection of artificial intelligence and forecasting, providing the latest insights and trends in this rapidly evolving field. The book contains fourteen chapters covering a wide range of topics, including the concept of AI, its impact on economic decision-making, traditional and machine learning-based forecasting methods, challenges in demand forecasting, global forecasting models, meta-learning and feature-based forecasting, ensembling, deep learning, scalability in industrial and optimization applications, and forecasting performance evaluation. With key illustrations, state-of-the-art implementations, best practices, and notable advances, this book offers practical insights into the theory and practice of AI-based forecasting. This book is a valuable resource for anyone involved in forecasting, including forecasters, statisticians, data scientists, business analysts, or decision-makers.