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Forecasting models – an overview with the help of R software Preface Forecasting models involves predicting the future values of a particular series of data which is mainly based on the time domain. Forecasting models are widely used in the fields such as financial markets, demand for a product and disease outbreak. The objective of the forecasting model is to reduce the error in the forecasting. Most of the Forecasting models are based on time series, a statistical concept which involves Moving Averages, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA), Exponential smoothing and Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) Models. Forecasting models which we deal in this book will be explorative forecasting models which take into account the past data to predict the future values. Current day forecasting models uses advanced techniques such as Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms which are more robust and can handle high volume of data. This book starts with the overview of forecasting and time series concepts and moves on to build forecasting models using different time series models. Examples related to forecasting models which are built based on Machine learning also covered. The book uses R statistical software package, an open source statistical package to build the forecasting models. Editor International Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics www.ijsmi.com/book.php https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07VFY53B1
Bayesian methodology differs from traditional statistical methodology which involves frequentist approach. Bayesian methodology was introduced by Thomas Bayes (Statistician and minister at the Presbyterian Chapel) during the 18th Century. Bayesian methodology is now widely being used due to its simple, straightforward and interpretable characteristics of probability values and the efficiency of modern day computer systems. Bayesian methodology is now being used in the field of clinical research, clinical trials, epidemiology, econometrics, statistical process control, marketing research and statistical mechanics. It also used in the emerging field such as data science (machine learning and deep learning) and big data analytics. The book provides an overview of Bayesian methodology, its uses in different fields with the help of R statistical open source software. Editor International Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics www.ijsmi.com/book.php
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Learn how to use R to turn raw data into insight, knowledge, and understanding. This book introduces you to R, RStudio, and the tidyverse, a collection of R packages designed to work together to make data science fast, fluent, and fun. Suitable for readers with no previous programming experience, R for Data Science is designed to get you doing data science as quickly as possible. Authors Hadley Wickham and Garrett Grolemund guide you through the steps of importing, wrangling, exploring, and modeling your data and communicating the results. You'll get a complete, big-picture understanding of the data science cycle, along with basic tools you need to manage the details. Each section of the book is paired with exercises to help you practice what you've learned along the way. You'll learn how to: Wrangle—transform your datasets into a form convenient for analysis Program—learn powerful R tools for solving data problems with greater clarity and ease Explore—examine your data, generate hypotheses, and quickly test them Model—provide a low-dimensional summary that captures true "signals" in your dataset Communicate—learn R Markdown for integrating prose, code, and results
This is the second book in the Deep Learning models series by the author. Deep learning models are widely used in different fields due to its capability to handle large and complex datasets and produce the desired results with more accuracy at a greater speed. In Deep learning models, features are selected automatically through the iterative process wherein the model learns the features by going deep into the dataset and selects the features to be modeled. In the traditional models the features of the dataset needs to be specified in advance. The Deep Learning algorithms are derived from Artificial Neural Network concepts and it is a part of broader Machine Learning Models. The book starts with the Introduction part which is adopted from Author’s Deep Learning Models and its application: An overview with the help of R software book and move on to the Python’s important data processing packages such Numpy, and Pandas. Book then explores the Deep Learning models with the help of packages such as Pytorch, Tensor Flow and Keras and their applications in image processing, stock market prediction, recommender systems and natural language processing. Editor International Journal of Statistics and Medical Informatics www.ijsmi.com/book.php ISBN: 9798558877953 E-Books: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08MQTM1ZP Paperbacks: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08MSQ3R8R
Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
Time series data analysis is increasingly important due to the massive production of such data through the internet of things, the digitalization of healthcare, and the rise of smart cities. As continuous monitoring and data collection become more common, the need for competent time series analysis with both statistical and machine learning techniques will increase. Covering innovations in time series data analysis and use cases from the real world, this practical guide will help you solve the most common data engineering and analysis challengesin time series, using both traditional statistical and modern machine learning techniques. Author Aileen Nielsen offers an accessible, well-rounded introduction to time series in both R and Python that will have data scientists, software engineers, and researchers up and running quickly. You’ll get the guidance you need to confidently: Find and wrangle time series data Undertake exploratory time series data analysis Store temporal data Simulate time series data Generate and select features for a time series Measure error Forecast and classify time series with machine or deep learning Evaluate accuracy and performance
Build efficient forecasting models using traditional time series models and machine learning algorithms. Key FeaturesPerform time series analysis and forecasting using R packages such as Forecast and h2oDevelop models and find patterns to create visualizations using the TSstudio and plotly packagesMaster statistics and implement time-series methods using examples mentionedBook Description Time series analysis is the art of extracting meaningful insights from, and revealing patterns in, time series data using statistical and data visualization approaches. These insights and patterns can then be utilized to explore past events and forecast future values in the series. This book explores the basics of time series analysis with R and lays the foundations you need to build forecasting models. You will learn how to preprocess raw time series data and clean and manipulate data with packages such as stats, lubridate, xts, and zoo. You will analyze data and extract meaningful information from it using both descriptive statistics and rich data visualization tools in R such as the TSstudio, plotly, and ggplot2 packages. The later section of the book delves into traditional forecasting models such as time series linear regression, exponential smoothing (Holt, Holt-Winter, and more) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the stats and forecast packages. You'll also cover advanced time series regression models with machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine using the h2o package. By the end of this book, you will have the skills needed to explore your data, identify patterns, and build a forecasting model using various traditional and machine learning methods. What you will learnVisualize time series data and derive better insightsExplore auto-correlation and master statistical techniquesUse time series analysis tools from the stats, TSstudio, and forecast packagesExplore and identify seasonal and correlation patternsWork with different time series formats in RExplore time series models such as ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and moreEvaluate high-performance forecasting solutionsWho this book is for Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R is ideal for data analysts, data scientists, and all R developers who are looking to perform time series analysis to predict outcomes effectively. A basic knowledge of statistics is required; some knowledge in R is expected, but not mandatory.
The Book of R is a comprehensive, beginner-friendly guide to R, the world’s most popular programming language for statistical analysis. Even if you have no programming experience and little more than a grounding in the basics of mathematics, you’ll find everything you need to begin using R effectively for statistical analysis. You’ll start with the basics, like how to handle data and write simple programs, before moving on to more advanced topics, like producing statistical summaries of your data and performing statistical tests and modeling. You’ll even learn how to create impressive data visualizations with R’s basic graphics tools and contributed packages, like ggplot2 and ggvis, as well as interactive 3D visualizations using the rgl package. Dozens of hands-on exercises (with downloadable solutions) take you from theory to practice, as you learn: –The fundamentals of programming in R, including how to write data frames, create functions, and use variables, statements, and loops –Statistical concepts like exploratory data analysis, probabilities, hypothesis tests, and regression modeling, and how to execute them in R –How to access R’s thousands of functions, libraries, and data sets –How to draw valid and useful conclusions from your data –How to create publication-quality graphics of your results Combining detailed explanations with real-world examples and exercises, this book will provide you with a solid understanding of both statistics and the depth of R’s functionality. Make The Book of R your doorway into the growing world of data analysis.
This book gives you a step-by-step introduction to analysing time series using the open source software R. Each time series model is motivated with practical applications, and is defined in mathematical notation. Once the model has been introduced it is used to generate synthetic data, using R code, and these generated data are then used to estimate its parameters. This sequence enhances understanding of both the time series model and the R function used to fit the model to data. Finally, the model is used to analyse observed data taken from a practical application. By using R, the whole procedure can be reproduced by the reader. All the data sets used in the book are available on the website http://staff.elena.aut.ac.nz/Paul-Cowpertwait/ts/. The book is written for undergraduate students of mathematics, economics, business and finance, geography, engineering and related disciplines, and postgraduate students who may need to analyse time series as part of their taught programme or their research.