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After a long secular decline in the 20th century, food prices spiked sharply in 2007-08, 2010-11 and again in 2021-22. While often termed “food crises”, economists disagree on whether rising food prices increase or decrease poverty: poor people have high food expenditure shares but also produce and sell food, and higher food prices trigger food supply responses and growth in rural wages. One limitation of previous econometric studies is their focus on medium-run multi-year impacts, even though simulation analyses typically find negative impacts in the short run. In this study we therefore construct and analyze a novel short run panel of annual poverty and food price data for 33 middle income countries (MICs) over 2000-2019. Using standard panel data techniques, we find that increases in the real price of food predict reductions in $3.20/day poverty in less urbanized countries but increases in poverty in the most urbanized MICs.
This paper uses a sample of 73 developing countries to estimate the change in the cost of alleviating urban poverty brought about by the recent increase in food prices. This cost is approximated by the change in the poverty deficit, that is, the variation in financial resources required to eliminate poverty under perfect targeting. The results show that, for most countries, the cost represents less than 0.1 percent of gross domestic product. However, in the most severely affected, it may exceed 3 percent. In all countries, the change in the poverty deficit is mostly due to the negative real income effect of those households that were poor before the price shock, while the cost attributable to new households falling into poverty is negligible. Thus, in countries where transfer mechanisms with effective targeting already exist, the most cost-effective strategy would be to scale up such programs rather than designing tools to identify the new poor.
The recent spike in food prices has led to a renewal of interest in agricultural issues and in the long-term drivers of food prices. Urbanization has been mentioned as one possible cause of higher food prices. In this paper we examine some of the links through which urbanization is considered to be contributing to higher food prices and conclude that in most cases urbanization is being conflated with other long-term processes, such as economic growth, population growth and environmental degradation, which can more fruitfully be seen as related but separate processes. We discuss long- and-short term factors affecting food prices, and conclude that the one important way in which urbanization in poor countries may affect food prices, at least potentially, is that it increases the number of households who depend on commercial food supplies, rather than own production, as their main source and hence are likely to hoard food if they fear future price increases. The best policy option for managing this is larger food reserves. Attempts to curb urbanization, on the other hand, would be ill advised.
Conceptual issues and policy focus; Urbanization in the developing world: implications for growth and poverty; Urban food insecurity and malnutrition; Policy choices and research implications; Policy research priorities.
Standard microeconomic methods consistently suggest that, in the short run, higher food prices increase poverty in developing countries. In contrast, macroeconomic models that allow for an agricultural supply response and consequent wage adjustments suggest that the poor ultimately benefit from higher food prices. In this paper we use international data to systematically test the relationship between changes in domestic food prices and changes in poverty. We find robust evidence that in the long run (one to five years) higher food prices reduce poverty and inequality. The magnitudes of these effects vary across specifications and are not precisely estimated, but they are large enough to suggest that the recent increase in global food prices has significantly accelerated the rate of global poverty reduction.
The Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 directed the U.S. Dept. of Agr. to conduct a 1-year study to assess the extent of areas with limited access to affordable and nutritious food, identify characteristics and causes of such areas, consider how limited access affects local populations, and outline recommend. to address the problem. This report presents the findings of the study, which include results from two conferences of national and internat. authorities on food deserts and a set of research studies. It also includes reviews of existing literature, a national-level assessment of access to large grocery stores and supermarkets, analysis of the economic and public health effects of limited access, and a discussion of existing policy interventions. Illus.