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Volatile exchange rates and how to manage them are a contentious topic whenever economic policymakers gather in international meetings. This book examines the broad parameters of exchange rate policy in light of both high-powered theory and real-world experience. What are the costs and benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates? How much of a role should the exchange rate play in monetary policy? Why don't volatile exchange rates destabilize inflation and output? The principal finding of this book is that using monetary policy to fight exchange rate volatility, including through the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime, leads to greater volatility of employment, output, and inflation. In other words, the "cure" for exchange rate volatility is worse than the disease. This finding is demonstrated in economic models, in historical case studies, and in statistical analysis of the data. The book devotes considerable attention to understanding the reasons why volatile exchange rates do not destabilize inflation and output. The book concludes that many countries would benefit from allowing greater flexibility of their exchange rates in order to target monetary policy at stabilization of their domestic economies. Few, if any, countries would benefit from a move in the opposite direction.
''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Recoge: 1. Introduction-2. Summary of recommendations-3. Standars for crisis prevention-4. Banks and capital flows-5. Bailing in the private sector-6. What won't work-7. What the IMF should do (and what we should do about the IMF).
This book describes the remarkable path which led to the Swiss Franc becoming the strong international currency that it is today. Ernst Baltensperger and Peter Kugler use Swiss monetary history to provide valuable insights into a number of issues concerning the organization and development of monetary institutions and currency that shaped the structure of financial markets and affected the economic course of a country in important ways. They investigate a number of topics, including the functioning of a world without a central bank, the role of competition and monopoly in money and banking, the functioning of monetary unions, monetary policy of small open economies under fixed and flexible exchange rates, the stability of money demand and supply under different monetary regimes, and the monetary and macroeconomic effects of Swiss Banking and Finance. Swiss Monetary History since the Early 19th Century illustrates the value of monetary history for understanding financial markets and macroeconomics today.
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Principles of International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics: Theories, Applications, and Policies presents a macroeconomic framework for understanding and analyzing the global economy from the perspectives of emerging economies and developing countries. Unlike most macroeconomic textbooks, which typically emphasize issues about developed countries while downplaying issues related to developing countries, this book emphasizes problems in emerging economies, including those in Latin American countries. It also explains recent developments in international finance that are essential to a thorough understanding of the effects and implications of the recent financial crisis. - Concentrates on developing country perspectives on International Finance and the Economy, including those in Latin American countries - Provides case studies and publicly available data allowing readers to explore theories and their applications - Explains recent developments in international finance that are essential to a thorough understanding of the effects and implications of the recent financial crisis - Proposes a unified mathematical model accessible to those with basic mathematical skills
These eleven essays written over the past fifteen years continue and develop Richard Cooper's central theme of interdependence, reflecting his experience in government in the Council of Economic Advisers and as Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs. They focus in particular on the opportunities and constraints for national economic policy in an environment where goods, services, capital, and even labor are increasingly mobile. The first four chapters are informal, discursive treatments of economic and foreign policies in the face of growing interdependence among nations. The remaining chapters cover such specialist topics as optimal regional integration, the integration of world capital markets, the impact of greater interdependence on the effectiveness of domestic economic policy, the comparison of monetary and fiscal policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates, currency evaluation in developing countries, and the appropriate size and composition of a developing country's external debt. A concluding chapter surveys the preceding essays in terms of coordinating macroeconomic policymaking in an interdependent world economy. Richard N. Cooper is Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economy at Harvard University.