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Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.
This collection, written by highly-placed practitioners and academic economists, provides a picture of how economic modellers and policy makers interact. The book provides international case studies of particular interactions between models and policy making, and argues that the flow of information is two-way.
This book gives a comprehensive description of macroeconometric modeling and its development over time. The first part depicts the history of macroeconometric model building, starting with Jan Tinbergen's and Lawrence R. Klein's contributions. It is unique in summarizing the development and specific structure of macroeconometric models built in North America, Europe, and various other parts of the world. The work thus offers an extensive source for researchers in the field. The second part of the book covers the systematic characteristics of macroeconometric models. It includes the household and enterprise sectors, disequilibria, financial flows, and money market sectors.
Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling discusses several state-of-the-art developments in the modelling approach to market behaviour in macroeconomic modelling. Leading experts in this field, deal with the implications of market imperfections in commodity markets, capital markets and labour markets for macroeconomic modelling and stabilization policy. They demonstrate that incorporating market imperfections leads to very different policy recommendations than those derived from the standard perfect competition model.
In order to analyze the economic effects of various policy proposals for reforming the welfare state a model has been developed called MIMIC. The structure of this model is presented in the first part of this book. The model combines various modern labour market theories with a detailed description of relevant labour market institutions in an applied general equilibrium context. The second part of the volume contains an elaborate presentation of the simulation results of MIMIC, such as various tax policies, a reduction in benefits or the official minimum wage, individualization of the tax and social security system and the introduction of negative income tax. The model has proved to be a unique instrument for policy evaluation for the Netherlands.
Essays on Money, Banking and Regulation honors the interests and achievements of the Dutch economist Conrad Oort. The book is divided into four parts. Part 1 - Fiscal and monetary policy - reviews a variety of topics ranging from the measurement of money to the control and management of government expenditures. Part 2 - International institutions and international economic policy - looks at the international dimension of monetary and fiscal policy, with extensive discussion of the International Monetary Fund and the European Monetary Union. Part 3 - The future of international banking and the financial sector in the Netherlands - is an insider's view of the strategic choices facing financial institutions in the near future. Finally, Part 4 - Taxation and reforms in the Dutch tax system - is closest to Oort's research and practice since he has become known as an architect of the 1990 Dutch tax reform; this part is dedicated in particular to the tax reforms suggested by Oort.
Delivering IT projects on time and within budget while maintaining privacy, security, and accountability is one of the major public challenges of our time. The Handbook of Public Information Systems, Second Edition addresses all aspects of public IT projects while emphasizing a common theme: technology is too important to leave to the technocrats.