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This paper makes an empirical examination of the relationship between fiscal balance and structural reforms using panel data from 25 transition economies. The results indicate that price liberalisation has a positive impact on fiscal performance, while privatisation and restructuring, via unemployment, affect the fiscal balance negatively. These findings are somewhat in contrast with earlier empirical work and theoretical transition economics that maintain fiscal pressures are most severe in fast-reforming countries. The analysis further suggests that countries with better fiscal positions may have benefited from favourable initial conditions. Published in: Economics of Transition vol 9, no 1 (2001) pp. 29-52, ISSN 0967-0750.
This paper provides an empirical examination of the relationship between fiscal balance and structural reforms using panel data from 25 transition economies. The results indicate that privatization and restructuring, via unemployment, affect the fiscal balance negatively. This finding provides support for ideas in theoretical transition economics that maintain that fiscal pressures are most severe in fast-reforming countries. In contrast, price liberalization has a robust positive impact on fiscal performance. In addition, the results differ somewhat over different countries and transition time.
This book explores the problems of fiscal policy as an instrument of economic and social development in the modern environment, primarily focusing on the transition economies of Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Evaluating the transformational experience in these countries, this work meets a need for a critical analysis in the aftermath of the 1990s market liberalization reforms, of current trends and to outline the roadmap for future development.
While output declined in virtually all transition economies in the initial years, the speed and extent of the recovery that followed has varied widely across these countries. The contrast between the more and less successful transitions, the latter largely in the former Soviet Union, raises many questions about the relative roles played by adverse initial conditions, external factors, and reform strategies. This paper summarizes the macroeconomic performance of the transition economies. We first review the initial conditions confronting these economies, the reform strategy that was proposed, and the associated controversies that arose a decade ago. We then account for the widely different outcomes, highlighting the role of exogenous factors and the macroeconomic and structural policies adopted by the countries. We find that both stabilization policies and structural reforms, particularly privatization, contributed to the growth recovery. We also conclude that the faster is the speed of reforms, the quicker is the recovery and the higher is growth.
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Product and labor market reforms are needed to lift persistently sluggish growth in advanced economies. But reforms have progressed slowly because of concerns about their distributive and short-term economic effects. Our analysis, based on new empirical and numerical analysis and country case-studies shows that most labor and product market reforms can improve public debt dynamics over the medium-term. This because reforms raise output by boosting employment and/or labor productivity. But the effect of some labor market reforms on budgetary outcomes and fiscal sustainability depends critically on business cycle conditions. Our evidence also suggests that some temporary and well-designed up-front fiscal stimulus can help enhance the economic impact of reforms. In the past, countries have used fiscal incentives in the past to facilitate reforms by alleviating transition and social costs. But strong ownership of reforms was crucial for their successful implementation.
This paper analyzes fiscal reforms in transition economies during the decade leading up to 1998. The paper argues that macroeconomic stabilization, price liberalization and privatization—the core reforms visualized by the shock therapy approach—are necessary but not sufficient conditions for a complete transition to a market economy. Further deep changes—such as the creation of new fiscal institutions, changes in incentives and processes, and changes in the role of government—are needed.