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This work was written during my visits at CORE (Belgium), at the Faculty of Economics and Politics in Cambridge (England), and at the Department of Mathematics at the ETH in ZUrich. I wish to thank J.H. Dr~ze (CORE) for most help ful suggestions, and I am indebted to H. BUhlmann (ETH) for his advice and for encouragement. The comments by M. Granzio1, M. Janssen and by anonymous referees were very useful. However, I assume the responsibility for remaining errors. I am grateful to R. Boller, I. Lather and M. Urfer for their careful typing of the manuscript. Support by the SWiss National Science Foundation is acknowledged. An earlier version of this work was presented at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society 1981 in Amsterdam. In 1981 it was accepted as a "Habi1itations schrift" in Mathematical Economics by the Department of Mathematics at the ETH in ZUrich. CONTENTS Introduction 1 Part I: The General Model 8 1.1. Formulation of the General Model 8 1.1.1. General Properties 8 1.1.2. The Consumer 10 1.1.3. The Producer 14 1.1.4. The Public Sector 16 Equilibrium 1.2.
This chapter discusses various past and future aspects of the global economy. There has been a huge transformation of the global economy in the last several years. Articles on the future of energy in the global economy by Jeffrey Ball and on measuring inequality by Jonathan Ostry and Andrew Berg are also illustrated. Since the 2008 global crisis, global economists must change the way they look at the world.
This work was written during my visits at CORE (Belgium), at the Faculty of Economics and Politics in Cambridge (England), and at the Department of Mathematics at the ETH in ZUrich. I wish to thank J.H. Dr~ze (CORE) for most help ful suggestions, and I am indebted to H. BUhlmann (ETH) for his advice and for encouragement. The comments by M. Granzio1, M. Janssen and by anonymous referees were very useful. However, I assume the responsibility for remaining errors. I am grateful to R. Boller, I. Lather and M. Urfer for their careful typing of the manuscript. Support by the SWiss National Science Foundation is acknowledged. An earlier version of this work was presented at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society 1981 in Amsterdam. In 1981 it was accepted as a "Habi1itations schrift" in Mathematical Economics by the Department of Mathematics at the ETH in ZUrich. CONTENTS Introduction 1 Part I: The General Model 8 1.1. Formulation of the General Model 8 1.1.1. General Properties 8 1.1.2. The Consumer 10 1.1.3. The Producer 14 1.1.4. The Public Sector 16 Equilibrium 1.2.
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Back to the future: a heterodox economist rewrites Keynes's General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money to serve as the basis for a macroeconomics for the twenty-first century. John Maynard Keynes's General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money was the most influential economic idea of the twentieth century. But, argues Stephen Marglin, its radical implications were obscured by Keynes's lack of the mathematical tools necessary to argue convincingly that the problem was the market itself, as distinct from myriad sources of friction around its margins. Marglin fills in the theoretical gaps, revealing the deeper meaning of the General Theory. Drawing on eight decades of discussion and debate since the General Theory was published, as well as on his own research, Marglin substantiates Keynes's intuition that there is no mechanism within a capitalist economy that ensures full employment. Even if deregulating the economy could make it more like the textbook ideal of perfect competition, this would not address the problem that Keynes identified: the potential inadequacy of aggregate demand. Ordinary citizens have paid a steep price for the distortion of Keynes's message. Fiscal policy has been relegated to emergencies like the Great Recession. Monetary policy has focused unduly on inflation. In both cases the underlying rationale is the false premise that in the long run at least the economy is self-regulating so that fiscal policy is unnecessary and inflation beyond a modest 2 percent serves no useful purpose. Fleshing out Keynes's intuition that the problem is not the warts on the body of capitalism but capitalism itself, Raising Keynes provides the foundation for a twenty-first-century macroeconomics that can both respond to crises and guide long-run policy.
John Maynard Keynes is the great British economist of the twentieth century whose hugely influential work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and * is undoubtedly the century's most important book on economics--strongly influencing economic theory and practice, particularly with regard to the role of government in stimulating and regulating a nation's economic life. Keynes's work has undergone significant revaluation in recent years, and "Keynesian" views which have been widely defended for so long are now perceived as at odds with Keynes's own thinking. Recent scholarship and research has demonstrated considerable rivalry and controversy concerning the proper interpretation of Keynes's works, such that recourse to the original text is all the more important. Although considered by a few critics that the sentence structures of the book are quite incomprehensible and almost unbearable to read, the book is an essential reading for all those who desire a basic education in economics. The key to understanding Keynes is the notion that at particular times in the business cycle, an economy can become over-productive (or under-consumptive) and thus, a vicious spiral is begun that results in massive layoffs and cuts in production as businesses attempt to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand. Thus, full employment is only one of many or multiple macro equilibria. If an economy reaches an underemployment equilibrium, something is necessary to boost or stimulate demand to produce full employment. This something could be business investment but because of the logic and individualist nature of investment decisions, it is unlikely to rapidly restore full employment. Keynes logically seizes upon the public budget and government expenditures as the quickest way to restore full employment. Borrowing the * to finance the deficit from private households and businesses is a quick, direct way to restore full employment while at the same time, redirecting or siphoning
The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.
This broad survey of unemployment will be a major source of reference for both scholars and students.