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Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: Very good, Bahir Dar University, course: Economic Policy analysis, language: English, abstract: The main objective of the study is to examine the effect of budget deficit on monetary aggregates and the foreign sector of Ethiopia using the Vector Error Correction Model over the period 1970/71 to 2010/11. Estimation result shows the existence of a fairly significant relationship between fiscal deficit, monetary aggregates and the foreign sector in Ethiopia. Budget deficit is at the root of monetary expansion. Monetary expansion intern contributes positively to rising inflation and overvalued exchange rate. The Inflation and overvalued exchange rate intern contributes to the low performances of the foreign sector through adversely affecting export incentive. Fiscal deficit for small open economy like Ethiopia is also sign of stimulated domestic import demand, because government not only spends on goods and services produced in domestic economy. Thus, the result is in favor of the twin deficit hypothesis therefore fiscal restraint bucked by export diversification will improve the performance of the foreign sector and status of inflation.
Master's Thesis from the year 2017 in the subject Economics - Finance, , language: English, abstract: Fiscal policy is one of the macroeconomic policies which play a decisive role on economic growth; especially in developing economies which have many economic and social bottlenecks. This study examines the impacts of fiscal policy shock on Ethiopian economy; through applying static compatible general equilibrium (Stage CGE) model which allows quantifying the impacts of fiscal instrument shock on the economy and welfare of households. Fiscal problems like small tax revenue and consistent fiscal deficit put its own major influences on developing economies performance. The study uses 2009/10 Ethiopian SAM as an input for the model and applies three simulation scenarios. In the first simulation, tariff cut affects GDP and household welfare negatively. In the second simulation increasing direct tax has negative impact on total GDP. The other alternative simulation scenario is reducing direct tax and which give a positive change on the total GDP. In general, the government should reduce direct tax to improve economic performance. In addition, liberalizing tariff is not advisable for Ethiopian economy.
This study examines the response of monetary authority to macroeconomic shocks by employing a VECM Cointegration VAR model that considers domestic credit as the most appropriate indicator of monetary policy performance. The main findings of the study are as follows: Both net foreign asset and GDP are statistically significant and positively influence domestic credit in the long run dynamics model. It is only consumer price index that has a positive impact in the short run dynamics. All other explanatory variables negatively influence domestic credit in the short-run dynamics model. The effect of monetization of fiscal deficit on monetary policy depends on the endogeneity and exogeneity of fiscal deficits in the long run dynamics model. Moreover, the speed of adjustment or feedback effect towards long run equilibrium takes many years to make a full adjustment when there is a shock to the system. However, the speed of adjustment is inconsistent comparing with the short run dynamic analysis in this regard. The sterilization coefficient reveals incomplete sterilization activities while the offset coefficient tells us a high degree of monetary control with low degree of capital mobility. Therefore, the study recommends that the monetary authority should exercise its full discretionary power and focuses on financial sector development, secondary market and economic monetization in order to timely respond to macroeconomic shocks through market-based policy instruments.
Ethiopia showed commendable performance under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) Arrangement. Executive Directors appreciated this development, and emphasized the need to strengthen fiscal and monetary policies, enhance revenues, strengthen public expenditure management, and introduce poverty-related activities. They welcomed the restructuring plan for the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, and stressed the need to strengthen the organizational structure and finances of the National Bank of Ethiopia. They agreed that Ethiopia has successfully completed the fifth review under the PRGF program, and approved further financial assistance.
After decades of rapid growth and improvements in living standards, a series of shocks led to severe economic pressures, and the public investment-led growth model has reached its limits. Domestic conflict, the pandemic, droughts, and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as significant exchange rate overvaluation and insufficient macroeconomic policy adjustment, compounded building vulnerabilities resulting in high inflation, falling exports, foreign exchange shortages, erosion of international reserves, and unsustainable external debt. Reflecting their ambition to transform the economic model towards private sector-led development, and recognizing the urgent need for reform, the authorities developed the Home-Grown Economic Reform Agenda. This ambitious plan aims at tackling the drivers of economic imbalances including through moving to a market-determined exchange rate, modernizing the monetary policy framework, tackling fiscal revenues, and reforming state-owned enterprises.
Master's Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, Addis Ababa University (Addis Ababa University), course: Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper was to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia using time series annual data form 1970/71-2010/11. In this study, effort has been made to identify the long run and short run determinants of national saving in Ethiopia using an ARDL bounds testing approach and ECM to capture both short run and long run relationships. Estimated results revealed that financial development (FD) and Current account deficit (CAD) are significant determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia in the long run. But gross national disposable income (LGNDI), dependency ratio (DR), budget deficit (BD) and inflation, approximated by consumer price index (CPI), found to be statistically insignificant determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia in the long run. However, in the short run, except consumer price index (CPI) and dependency ratio (DR) the rest of the explanatory variables such as gross national disposable income (LGNDI), financial development (FD), current account deficit (CAD) and budget deficit (BD) found to have statistically significant meaning in explaining gross national saving in Ethiopia. The speed of adjustment has value 0.66978 with negative sign, which showed the convergence of saving model towards long run equilibrium. The overall findings of the study underlined the importance of raising the level of income in a sustainable manner, minimizing the adverse impacts of budget deficit and inflation rate and creating competitive environment in the financial sector.
Ethiopia has successfully implemented policies to reduce inflation and rebuild external reserves. Fiscal policy aims to continue the strong focus on physical and social infrastructure investment while raising the revenue effort. The recent reframing of monetary policy to adopt a reserve money nominal anchor holds out the prospect for the end of financial repression. While the External Shocks Facility-supported program has achieved its objectives of macroeconomic stabilization and a rebuilding of external reserves, much remains to be done to sustain and accelerate growth.