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The IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is used to examine the scope for structural reforms in the euro area to offset the negative impact of fiscal consolidation required to put public debt back on a sustainable path. The results suggest that structural reforms in core countries could quite reasonably be expected to offset the near term negative impact on activity arising from the required fiscal consolidation that uses a plausible mix of instruments to achieve the permanent improvement in the deficit. However, for the periphery, where the required consolidation is roughly twice as large as that required in the core, the results suggest that it would take several years before structural reforms could return the level of output back to its pre-consolidation path.
The IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is used to examine the scope for structural reforms in the euro area to offset the negative impact of fiscal consolidation required to put public debt back on a sustainable path. The results suggest that structural reforms in core countries could quite reasonably be expected to offset the near term negative impact on activity arising from the required fiscal consolidation that uses a plausible mix of instruments to achieve the permanent improvement in the deficit. However, for the periphery, where the required consolidation is roughly twice as large as that required in the core, the results suggest that it would take several years before structural reforms could return the level of output back to its pre-consolidation path.
In recent years the countries of southern Europe have undergone, with varying intensity, a serious and prolonged economic crisis. Most have had to implement comprehensive economic adjustment programmes, including a wide range of structural reforms. Economic Crisis and Structural Reforms in Southern Europe examines these reforms, drawing policy lessons from their successes and failures. This book employs two basic strands of analysis: issues of policy design, and political economy considerations. It considers the choice of timing and sequencing of reforms, the choice of the appropriate policy instruments, the pressure of interest groups and the political calculations involved in reforms. Featuring chapters in which contributors explore both national cases of specific structural reforms, and a comparative approach in order to evaluate similar reforms across countries, this important and topical work explores ongoing issues within the economy. Focusing on the challenges of designing and implementing structural reforms under conditions of crisis, this book will be of interest to policy makers and researchers from national and international organizations as well as academics and members of research institutes interested in the economics and politics of the Eurozone crisis.
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
This book discusses the unprecedented impact of the financial and economic crisis on government finances and economic performance across Europe, which has raised skepticism on the ability of the current course of integration to promote prosperity. Correspondingly, the European Union is about to contract for the first time in its history. This timely book covers the economic issues that challenge the future of integration in Europe. The chapters are authored by international experts and examine current and emerging challenges and trends for the European Union: economic convergence, monetary policy, competition law, transport policy, the informal sector, employment, recovery and enlargement. Four chapters focus on Greece, which has been the greatest challenge faced by European institutions in the context of the sovereign debt crisis, and one chapter discusses the possible costs of Brexit. The reader will benefit from understanding the key economic challenges, which, if effectively addressed, will lead to deepening the union, or in contrast to a multi-speed Europe.
State guarantees commonly function as financial panacea, allowing states to consolidate banking systems and create intergovernmental funds. Rules surrounding state guarantees were relaxed during the 2007-2008 financial crisis, allowing states to use them for financing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and workers' severance payments. Despite many multi-level interventions in many areas after the financial crisis, from international treaties to EU regulations, no specific regulation has been put in place to control state guarantees. This book addresses the subject of state guarantees in the Eurozone, and questions the stability of the instruments implemented so far by states and by the European Union. Using a methodology combining law and finance, it examines the tools adopted by European institutions and Member States in the EU's evolving institutional context, in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the tools themselves as well as of the new European institutional framework. It also addresses the unconventional measures adopted by the European Central Bank, its role as safeguard for European state guarantees and its interaction with the European Union and national courts. In From Saviour to Guarantor the authors suggest that the absence of specific regulatory interventions and the variety and vagueness of existing rules has resulted in state guarantees further destabilising public international finance.
In the December 2013 IMF Research Bulletin, the Research Summaries look at “Reforming Dual Labor Markets in Advanced Economies” (Giovanni Ganelli) and “Rating Through-The-Cycle: What Does the Concept Imply for Rating Stability Accuracy” (John Kiff, Michael Kisser, and Liliana Schumacher). The Q&A discusses Seven Questions on Financial Crises (Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia). This issue also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and IMF Staff Discussion Notes, as well as Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. The top-viewed articles from recent of issues of “IMF Economic Review” are featured.
Going for Growth is the OECD’s regular report on structural reforms in policy areas that have been identified as priorities to boost incomes in OECD and selected non-OECD countries (Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Latvia, Russian Federation and South Africa).
In this book, leading experts take a long-term view of the trends and policies of most relevance in achieving the structural readjustment required by the current crisis, which for too long has been viewed merely as an economic recession. A wide variety of issues are addressed, including the implications of the massive movement of wealth from advanced countries to emerging ones and the increasing income inequality evident within many countries. Prospects for growth toward the mid-century and beyond are discussed, with consideration of lessons from the past and the impact of various constraints, including corruption. The policies and reforms required to restore economic dynamism within the EU and more generally, to foster the “Good Economy” are discussed, recognizing the need for measures to promote innovation, entrepreneurship, well-being and high levels of environmental performance. The book comprises a selection of contributions presented at the XXV Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar. For the past quarter of a century, this seminar has brought together leading experts to engage in debates on pressing economic questions. This book, based on the most recent gathering, will be of interest to all who are concerned about the challenges to growth, well-being and social inclusion that will have to be confronted in the coming decades.