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Economic growth in all developing countries is guided, and often accelerated, by generally intrusive policies implemented by governments intent on playing an active role in furthering development. As economies have grown and become more complex, however, even small market distortions are magnified, and the tendency is to rely more heavily on the market for continued growth. In this volume, leading experts in economic development examine the variety of issues that arise as governments in some of the newly industrializing countries of Southeast Asia, such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, grapple with this difficult process of liberalization. This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1991.
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Can knowledge of financial policies in developing countries over four decades help the socialist economies of Asia and Eastern Europe become open market economies in the 1990s? In all these countries the loss of fiscal and monetary control has often resulted in high inflation that undermines the liberalization process itself. In the second edition of The Order of Economic Liberalization, Ronald McKinnon builds on his influential work on the liberalization of financial markets in less developed countries and outlines the progression necessary to move from a "repressed" to an open economy. New to this edition are chapters that contrast the gradual Chinese approach to liberalizing domestic and foreign trade with the "big bang" approach followed by some Eastern European countries and republics of the former Soviet Union. Financial control and macroeconomic stability, McKinnon argues, are more critical to a successful transition than is any crash program to privatize state-owned industrial assets and the banking system.
In recent years, the appropriate level and structure of interest tates have come to be seen as major issues in connection with stabilization programs undertaken by members. These issues arise from consideration both on the demand side, as interest rates affect the magnitude of aggregate demand, and on the supply side, as they influence the volume and quality of investment and, thus, the growth of output.
Full convertibility on the capital account brings with it the danger of real appreciation of the domestic currency as a consequence of additonal net capital imports. The real appreciation, in its turn, disfavours exports. At the end of the 1970s, Singapore and Malaysia had liberalized almost completely their international capital flows. Both countries experienced approximately the same growth and inflation rate. During the first hald of the 1980s, both currencies went through a considerable appreciation of their real efective exchange rates, since at that particular period both pegged their currencies to the U.S. dollar. In 1985, both were "an island of recession" when industrialized Asian and other developing countries passed through an economic boom. The recession was an outcome of their domestic stabilization policies. Singapore, which developed towards an international financial centre, had to assure the "quality" of its domestic currency in order to overcome the regualtory and fiscal advantages of Asian dollar deposits. The Singapore dollar became misaligned since financial priorities overruled commercial considerations. In contrast, Malaysia's real effective appreciation was the outcome of its huge government expenditures since it fell into the trap of the Dutch disease after the commodity price boom of 1979/80.
Financial repression (legal restrictions on interest rates, credit allocation, capital movements, and other financial operations) was widely used in the past but was largely abandoned in the liberalization wave of the 1990s, as widespread support for interventionist policies gave way to a renewed conception of government as an impartial referee. Financial repression has come back on the agenda with the surge in public debt in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, and some countries have reintroduced administrative ceilings on interest rates. By distorting market incentives and signals, financial repression induces losses from inefficiency and rent-seeking that are not easily quantified. This study attempts to assess some of these losses by estimating the impact of financial repression on growth using an updated index of interest rate controls covering 90 countries over 45 years. The results suggest that financial repression poses a significant drag on growth, which could amount to 0.4-0.7 percentage points.
Financial sector liberalization can spur economic growth and development, but reforms to liberalize the financial sector can also entail risks if they are not properly designed and implemented. One of the central questions for countries reforming their financial systems is how to sequence the reforms so as to maximize the benefits of liberalization and contain its risks. Edited by R. Barry Johnston and V. Sundararajan of the IMF's Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department, this book attempts to answer this and related questions by drawing lessons from financial sector reforms in selected countries. In particular, the book surveys financial sector reforms in Indonesia, Thailand, and Korea between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s.
In 1978, China embarked on a gradual but far-reaching reform of its economic system. This paper focuses on the achievements so far in reforming the financial sector, the legal framework for financial transactions, the payments system, and the monetary policy and foreign exchange system. It also analyzes the tasks ahead to achieve the goals set in these areas for the year 2000.
We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows—financial globalization. Both country- and industry-level results suggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing to significant increases in inequality—that is, they pose an equity–efficiency trade-off. Behind this average lies considerable heterogeneity in effects depending on country characteristics. Liberalization increases output in countries with high financial depth and those that avoid financial crises, while distributional effects are more pronounced in countries with low financial depth and inclusion and where liberalization is followed by a crisis. Difference-indifference estimates using sectoral data suggest that liberalization episodes reduce the share of labor income, particularly for industries with higher external financial dependence, those with a higher natural propensity to use layoffs to adjust to idiosyncratic shocks, and those with a higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. The sectoral results underpin a causal interpretation of the findings using macro data.