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Panel data for 63 countries in 1960-97 reveal no robust relationship between the development of financial intermediaries and the volatility of growth.
This paper contributes to the literature by looking at the possible relevance of the structure of the financial system—whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets—for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased policy attention on strengthening growth resilience. With low-income countries (LICs) being the most vulnerable to large and frequent terms of trade shocks, the paper focuses on a sample of 38 LICs over the period 1978-2012 and finds that banking sector development acts as a shock-absorber in poor countries, dampening the transmission of terms of trade shocks to growth volatility. Expanding the sample to 121 developing countries confirms this result, although this role of shock-absorber fades away as economies grow richer. Stock market development, by contrast, appears neither to be a shock-absorber nor a shock-amplifier for most economies. These findings are consistent across a range of econometric estimators, including fixed effect, system GMM and local projection estimates.
"This paper reviews, appraises, and critiques theoretical and empirical research on the connections between the operation of the financial system and economic growth. While subject to ample qualifications and countervailing views, the preponderance of evidence suggests that both financial intermediaries and markets matter for growth and that reverse causality alone is not driving this relationship. Furthermore, theory and evidence imply that better developed financial systems ease external financing constraints facing firms, which illuminates one mechanism through which financial development influences economic growth. The paper highlights many areas needing additional research"--NBER website
Panel data for 63 countries in 1960-97 reveal no robust relationship between the development of financial intermediaries and the volatility of growth. Beck, Lundberg, and Majnoni extend the recent literature on the link between financial development and economic volatility by focusing on the channels through which the development of financial intermediaries affects economic volatility. Their theoretical model predicts that well-developed financial intermediaries dampen the effect of real sector shocks on the volatility of growth while magnifying the effect of monetary shocks - suggesting that, overall, financial intermediaries have no unambiguous effect on growth volatility.The authors test these predictions in a panel data set covering 63 countries over the period 1960-97, using the volatility of terms of trade to proxy for real volatility, and the volatility of inflation to proxy for monetary volatility. They find no robust relationship between the development of financial intermediaries and growth volatility, weak evidence that financial intermediaries dampen the effect of terms of trade volatility, and evidence that financial intermediaries magnify the impact of inflation volatility in low- and middle-income countries.This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the links between the financial system and economic growth.
Using cases on individual countries, Economic Development in the Middle East and North Africa offers diverse theoretical and empirical evidence on a variety of issues facing policymakers, investors, and other stakeholders in the region.
This two-volume collection brings together major contributions to the study of finance and growth. It includes conceptual and empirical papers that use a range of methodologies to discover the connections between financial systems - including financial contracts, markets, and intermediaries - and the functioning of the economy - including economic growth, entrepreneurship, technological innovation, poverty alleviation, the distribution of income, and the structure and volatility of economies. It also discusses contributions to the study of the legal, political, institutional, social capital and policy determinants of financial development. With an original introduction by the editors, this collection is an important resource for students, academics and practitioners.
CD-ROM contains: World Bank data.
CD-ROM contains: Research and background information for the report.
The first part of this paper reviews the literature on the relation between finance and growth. The second part of the paper reviews the literature on the historical and policy determinants of financial development. Governments play a central role in shaping the operation of financial systems and the degree to which large segments of the financial system have access to financial services. The paper discusses the relationship between financial sector policies and economic development.
This paper examines whether there is a threshold above which financial development no longer has a positive effect on economic growth. We use different empirical approaches to show that there can indeed be "too much" finance. In particular, our results suggest that finance starts having a negative effect on output growth when credit to the private sector reaches 100% of GDP. We show that our results are consistent with the "vanishing effect" of financial development and that they are not driven by output volatility, banking crises, low institutional quality, or by differences in bank regulation and supervision.