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Over the period 1972-1986, the correlations of GDP, employment and investment between the United States and an aggregate of Europe, Canada and Japan were respectively 0.76, 0.66, and 0.63. For the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower: 0.26, 0.03 and -0.07 (real regionalization). At the same time, U.S. international asset trade has significantly increased. For example, between 1972 and 1999, United States gross FDI and equity assets in the same group of countries rose from 4 to 23 percent of the U.S. capital stock (financial globalization). We document that the correlation of real shocks between the U.S. and the rest of the world has declined. We then present a model in which international financial market integration occurs endogenously in response to less correlated shocks. Financial integration further reduces the international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and endogenous financial market development are needed to account for all the changes in the international business cycle.
Over the period 1972-1986, the correlations of GDP, employment and investment betweenthe United States and an aggregate of Europe, Canada and Japan were respectively 0.76,0.66, and 0.63. For the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower: 0.26,0.03, and -0.07 (real regionalization). At the same time, U.S. international asset trade has significantly increased. For example, between 1972 and 1999, United States gross FDI and equity assets in the same group of countries rose from 4 to 23 percent of the U.S. capital stock (financial globalization). We argue that these two trends are intimately related. We document that the correlation of real shocks between the U.S. and the rest of the world has declined. We then present a model in which international financial market integration occurs endogenously in response to less correlated shocks. Financial integration further reduces the international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and endogenous financial market development are needed to account for all the changes inthe international business cycle.
Originally published in 1998. This collection of outstanding essays explores the importance of regionalization and globalization to the world economy. International contributions explore the process of regionalization in the Pacific Area, The Americas, Africa and Europe, and question whether the world economy is characterized by increasing regionalization, rather than globalization. The book is an excellent contribution to debate on development economics. It investigates how the processes of globalization and regionalization, driven by liberalization of trade and capital markets, weaken nationally established monopolies and protected industries and it looks at the challenge to Third World nations and the countries of the former socialist bloc.
Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960–2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles especially in regions that experienced a sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has declined over the same period. In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the emergence of regional business cycles.
In the future, some regions of the world will probably experience vigorous economic growth, while others struggle to survive. Unless the United States recognizes these probabilities and the implications of them, standards of living in this country will continue to decline. This is the warning Hazel Johnson gives in this book--an analysis of global economic trends and capital flows that reveals strong regional patterns of development. The book was written when the appeal of globalization was almost irresistible: communism was being overthrown and global market economies seemed inevitable. But Johnson detected factors that would prevent globalization, for example: a closed Japanese society that focused on winning the economic war, a Germany that would overextend itself to achieve reunification, and a Latin America whose problems would be felt more by the United States than by any other developed country. Analysts are only now beginning to face these realities. Most notably, Lester Thurow (Head to Head, 1992) has acknowledged all these factors and concludes (subsequent to the publication of Johnson's book) that regional trading blocks will, in fact, emerge. Johnson's volume is unique in viewing the world in its entirety rather than treating one country or region at a time, and in presenting events in a historical context to explain current and probable future economic relationships among countries. The work is compelling because it dares to examine the economic behavior of countries with a critical rather than a diplomatic eye. It should be of interest to scholars and policymakers in international finance and trade, as well as those studying development and international economics.
Cross-border regions are newly emerging social spaces stretching across national borders. Globalization makes national borders more permeable and leads to a rearrangement of economic and political interactions. This is particularly pronounced within supra-regional blocs featuring specific internal border regimes. The ensuing opportunities are increasingly seized to create border-spanning discourses and institutions. This is illustrated in the book by a range of experts analyzing cross-border regions in Europe, America, East Asia and Africa.
Over the period 1972-1986, the correlations of GDP, employment and investment between the United States and an aggregate of Europe, Canada and Japan were respectively 0.76, 0.66, and 0.63. For the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower: 0.26, 0.03 and -0.07 (real regionalization). At the same time, U.S. international asset trade has significantly increased. For example, between 1972 and 1999, United States gross FDI and equity assets in the same group of countries rose from 4 to 23 percent of the U.S. capital stock (financial globalization). We document that the correlation of real shocks between the U.S. and the rest of the world has declined. We then present a model in which international financial market integration occurs endogenously in response to less correlated shocks. Financial integration further reduces the international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and endogenous financial market development are needed to account for all the changes in the international business cycle.
Examines the political and economic changes that have reshaped the political geography of certain regions. This book deals with the concept of global bloc formation, examining the impacts that political-economic conditions and relationships in and between nations have on demographic and economic flows.