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When Mexico's peso crisis occurred in December 1994, all of Latin America experienced the 'tequila effect'. In January 1998, after seven months of financial turmoil in East Asia, Alan Greenspan, the normally reticent Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, noted that such 'vicious cycles ... may, in fact, be a defining characteristic of the new high-tech international financial system'. This book examines the impact of the new, highly liquid, portfolio capital flows on governments, opposition politicians, business and the work-force in such emerging market countries as Mexico, Brazil, Russia, India, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. The contributors lament the economic and political strains on often fragile governments forced by global markets to reduce expenditures and employment drastically in order to defend their currencies. Possible silver linings of financial globalization include the discrediting of incumbent authoritarian regimes and external reinforcement for sound macroeconomicpolicies.
When Mexico's peso crisis occurred in December 1994, all of Latin America experienced the 'tequila effect'. In January 1998, after seven months of financial turmoil in East Asia, Alan Greenspan, the usually reticent Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, noted that such 'vicious cycles...may, in fact, be a defining characteristic of the new high-tech international financial system'. This book examines the impact of the new, highly liquid portfolio capital flows on governments, opposition, politicians, business and the workforce in such emerging market countries as Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. Hailed as 'exemplary and innovative', 'fine-grained and accessible' and 'a must read', this collection of original essays in newly available in paperback.
Financial globalization offers both risks and benefits for countries of the semi-periphery orthe so-called "emerging markets". Politics within the national space matters, yet acquires a new meaning, in the age of financial globalization. "Weak democracies" are characterized by limited accountability and transparency of the state and other key political institutions. Such democracies tend to suffer from populist cycles, which result in low capacity to carry out economic reform. Financial globalization, in turn, magnifies populist cycles and renders their consequences more severe. Hence "weak democracies" are confronted with the predominantly negative side of financial globalization which includes over-dependence on short-term capital flows, speculative attacks and recurrent financial crises leading to slow growth and a more regressive income distributional profile. The relevance of these set of propositions are illustrated with reference to the case of Turkey which, indeed, experienced recurrent financial crises in the post-capital account liberalization era with costly consequences for the real economy. Two general conclusions follow. Firstly, there is a need to strengthen democracy in the developing world. Secondly, since this is hard to accomplish over a short space of time serious question marks are raised concerning the desirability of early exposure to financial globalization given the current state of the world.
Discusses how democracy and national self-determination cannot be pursued simultaneously with economic globalization and instead promotes customizable globalization with international rules to achieve balanced prosperity.
For a century, economists have driven forward the cause of globalization in financial institutions, labour markets, and trade. Yet there have been consistent warning signs that a global economy and free trade might not always be advantageous. Where are the pressure points? What could be done about them? Dani Rodrik examines the back-story from its seventeenth-century origins through the milestones of the gold standard, the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the Washington Consensus, to the present day. Although economic globalization has enabled unprecedented levels of prosperity in advanced countries and has been a boon to hundreds of millions of poor workers in China and elsewhere in Asia, it is a concept that rests on shaky pillars, he contends. Its long-term sustainability is not a given. The heart of Rodrik’s argument is a fundamental 'trilemma': that we cannot simultaneously pursue democracy, national self-determination, and economic globalization. Give too much power to governments, and you have protectionism. Give markets too much freedom, and you have an unstable world economy with little social and political support from those it is supposed to help. Rodrik argues for smart globalization, not maximum globalization.
The end of the Cold War, the "third wave" of democratization, and economic globalization have presented the newly industrialized countries of East Asia and the liberal democracies of Latin America with increasingly similar international opportunities and constraints. During the 1980s, Latin America made great strides in democratization, while East Asia led the world in economic growth. Are the two regions now converging toward a model that combines economic and political liberalization? Many developments in both regions indicate that this is a serious possibility. Although significant countertrends do exist, there is now increased scope for mutual support and encouragement among aspiring democratic forces both within and between these two regions. This book examines these interrelated issues, paying special attention to the effects of the East Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 and its subsequent impact on Latin America. Contributors: Ananya Basu, World Bank; Francis Fukuyama, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University.; Stephan Haggard, University of California-San Diego; Elizabeth M. King, World Bank; Sanjay Marwah, George Mason University; Sylvia Maxfield, Harvard University; Eduardo Silva, University of Missouri-St. Louis and University of Miami; Gordon Redding, University of Hong Kong; Tun-jen Cheng, College of William and Mary; Yun-han Chu, National Taiwan University; Laurence Whitehead, Oxford University.
Existing approaches to financial globalization have often assumed that global capital markets are a monolithic entity consisting of homogeneous investors with the same interests and information. This project challenges this assumption by disaggregating the market responses of international and local portfolio investors to political events in emerging markets. I argue that, despite the increasing globalization of capital, domestic financial investors remain key in financial market-government relations. First, local investors lead the way in market responses to political events. Less well-informed foreign investors take cues from better-informed domestic investors, following the lead of locals who are "on the ground." Second, domestic investors respond more vigorously to political events, as insufficient international risk sharing makes them especially sensitive to local political risk. These two factors put local investors at the forefront of capital market responses to political events. I test this argument empirically using pricing data for closed-end country funds and capital flow data for onshore and offshore investment funds -- which afford a unique opportunity to examine interactions between international and local investors. Multivariate time series analyses of financial contagion and event study estimates of the impact of national elections on financial markets find that local investors are particularly sensitive to political uncertainty and that political shocks propagate from local to international markets. The findings demonstrate that a model that places local investors front and center improves our understanding of financial market discipline in the emerging world.
Emerging Market Economies: Globalization and Development is the result of a comprehensive international research project co-ordinated within the TIGER (Transformation, Integration and Globalization Economic Research). It deals with economic, social and political implications of globalization for the development of emerging market economies and is authored by a host of international scholars from the USA, Chile, Tanzania, the UK, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Romania, China and Japan. globalization on the markets for capital, goods and labour and for the growth and development in emerging markets including post-communist countries. The study includes a number of comprehensive and compatible works which deal especially with the chances for and mechanism of catching-up on these emerging markets.
In an age of financial globalization, are markets and democracy compatible? For developing countries, the dramatic internationalization of financial markets over the last two decades deepens tensions between politics and markets. Notwithstanding the rise of left-leaning governments in regions like Latin America, macroeconomic policies often have a neoliberal appearance. When is austerity imposed externally and when is it a domestic political choice? By combining statistical tests with extensive field research across Latin America, this book examines the effect of financial globalization on economic policymaking. Kaplan argues that a country's structural composition of international borrowing and its individual technocratic understanding of past economic crises combine to produce dramatically different outcomes in national policy choices. Incorporating these factors into an electoral politics framework, the book then challenges the conventional wisdom that political business cycles are prevalent in newly democratizing regions. This book is accessible to a broad audience and scholars with an interest in the political economy of finance, development and democracy, and Latin American politics.
What explains the spread of both democracy and financial openness at this time in history, given the constraining impact of financial market integration on national policy autonomy? International policy coordination is part of the answer, but not all. Also important is the presence of cost-effective redistributive schemes that provide insurance against the risk of financial instability.