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We design a laboratory experiment to test the importance of wealth as a channel for financial contagion across markets with unrelated fundamentals. Specifically, in a sequential global game, we analyze the decisions of a group of investors that hold assets in two markets. We consider two treatments that vary the level of diversification of these assets across markets, which allows us to disentangle the wealth effect from other sources of financial contagion. We provide evidence of contagion due to a wealth effect when investors have completely diversified portfolios. In this treatment, for certain ranges of fundamentals, we show that a coordination failure in the first market reduces investors' wealth, which makes them more likely to withdraw their investments in the second market, thereby increasing the probability of a crisis.
This paper models financial contagion as a wealth effect of financial intermediaries in a market with two risky assets and three types of traders: noise traders who trade in one market, financial intermediaries who partially arbitrage away noise trading, and long-term investors who provide liquidity. Contagion is characterized as decreased liquidity, increased volatility in both markets, and increased correlation between returns on the two assets occurring simultaneously with financial intermediaries suffering losses on positions. When financial intermediaries have reduced capital as a result of trading losses, they have a reduced capacity for bearing risks. This motivates them to liquidate positions in both markets, resulting in reduced market liquidity, increased price volatility in both markets, and increased correlation. Through this mechanism, the wealth effect leads to contagion. Financial intermediaries are assumed to follow consumption and portfolio rules which make them look like a log-utility investor: the volatility of their portfolio equals the Sharpe ratio available in the market and the dividend rate (i.e., consumption rate) equals the rate of time preference. They trade in two markets with independent fundamentals and constant dollar total risk. As the financial intermediaries partially arbitrage away the effects of noise trading in one market, they take large risky arbitrage positions. Long-term investors provide some liquidity, which makes it possible for financial intermediaries to liquidate positions when they suffer losses. The equilibrium has two state variables, the wealth of financial intermediaries and noise trading. A system of two simultaneous partial differential equations is solved numerically using a projection method. This model cautions risk managers to evaluate risks using information about the capitalization and positions of other market participants.
"Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations covers a lot of territory. It is, of course, terribly important to analyze case histories to discover potential triggers, mechanisms of transmission, and viable ways to contain the damage of financial contagion. The problem is, as these articles amply demonstrate, that there’s always a new virus or a mutation of a former one lurking in some corner of the financial world. We don’t know what it is or where it is. And, even if we had some inkling, there’s almost never enough time to develop a financial flu shot." --SeekingAlpha.com The latest insights on financial contagion and how both nations and investors can effectively deal with it. The domino-style structure in which the financial system exists is a perilous one. Although historically, the financial system has been able to deal with major shocks, the fact remains that our financial system is not as secure as it should be. Recent years have brought about too many examples of contagion and systemic risk. That is why Financial Contagion is such an important read. In it, the serious concerns that revolve around our fragile economic system are investigated, researched, and explained. Throughout the book, Kolb offers valuable insights on this dilemma as he compiles the history of financial contagion, highlights the latest research on systemic failure and interrelated markets, and analyzes the risks and consequences we face moving forward. Examines the importance of careful regulation and what must be done to stabilize the global financial system Includes contributed chapters from both academics and experienced professionals, offering a variety of perspectives and a rich interplay of ideas Details how close we are to witnessing a financial contagion that could devastate the world economy We have been harshly reminded of how fragile our economic ecosystem is. With Financial Contagion, you'll hold a better understanding of what needs to be done to strengthen our system and safeguard our financial future.
Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: In recent years academics and policy makers have become more and more interested in the phenomenon of contagion, a concept involving the transmission of a financial crisis from one country to one or more other countries. During the 1990s world capital markets witnessed a number of financial crises. In 1992 the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis hit the European continent. Several countries in Latin America have been rocked during the 1994-95 Tequila crisis, and the Asian Flu spread through East Asian countries in 1997-98 with dramatic social implications. Later in 1998 the famous hedge fund Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) had to file for bankruptcy and the Russian debt failure shocked international capital markets and increased volatility on a global scale. The crisis spread to as far as Brazil in early 1999 and developed markets have become victims as well. The question asked by academics and policy makers is how countries should behave in order to avoid contagion. To answer this question it is necessary to understand the different channels of contagion in greater detail and how a crisis can be transmitted from one country to another. The objective of this paper is to highlight those channels and to present a number of models and theories of contagion, which have recently been developed by academics. In general, there are several strands of theories in the literature that try to explain the transmission of crises. During the mid and late 1990s fundamental-based contagion and spillovers became popular among researchers and policy makers. Furthermore, financial linkages have been known to contribute to contagion. In contrast, in recent years, portfolio flows of international investors moved into the focus of academics. The advocates of fundamental-based contagion and spillovers argue that trade linkages between countries are responsible for contagion. For instance, a devaluation of a country's currency may lead to a negative change in fundamentals of its trading partners. On the other hand, contagion due to financial linkages is mainly explained by the fact that countries share the same banks and therefore have common creditors. A crisis in one country then leads to a deteriorating balance sheet of those common creditors. This in turn may force banks to withdraw money out of other countries in order to avoid further losses, a fact that leads to contagious sellouts. The role of international portfolio flows, which is [...]
No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.
"Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations covers a lot of territory. It is, of course, terribly important to analyze case histories to discover potential triggers, mechanisms of transmission, and viable ways to contain the damage of financial contagion. The problem is, as these articles amply demonstrate, that there’s always a new virus or a mutation of a former one lurking in some corner of the financial world. We don’t know what it is or where it is. And, even if we had some inkling, there’s almost never enough time to develop a financial flu shot." --SeekingAlpha.com The latest insights on financial contagion and how both nations and investors can effectively deal with it. The domino-style structure in which the financial system exists is a perilous one. Although historically, the financial system has been able to deal with major shocks, the fact remains that our financial system is not as secure as it should be. Recent years have brought about too many examples of contagion and systemic risk. That is why Financial Contagion is such an important read. In it, the serious concerns that revolve around our fragile economic system are investigated, researched, and explained. Throughout the book, Kolb offers valuable insights on this dilemma as he compiles the history of financial contagion, highlights the latest research on systemic failure and interrelated markets, and analyzes the risks and consequences we face moving forward. Examines the importance of careful regulation and what must be done to stabilize the global financial system Includes contributed chapters from both academics and experienced professionals, offering a variety of perspectives and a rich interplay of ideas Details how close we are to witnessing a financial contagion that could devastate the world economy We have been harshly reminded of how fragile our economic ecosystem is. With Financial Contagion, you'll hold a better understanding of what needs to be done to strengthen our system and safeguard our financial future.
The effects of financial contagion during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have been extensively studied in the finance literarure. One of the key issues is the devastating effect of the crisis on wealth and asset prices. However, one key difference between this crisis and other crises in the past was the resilience (immunity) or the short term effect of the crisis on emerging markets. Dooley and Hutchison (2009) were the first ones to find evidence in support of the decoupling hypothesis of emerging markets during the early phases of the crisis. Since then the hypothesis have been tested by other researchers (for recent surveys see: Beirne and Gieck, 2014; Koksal and Orhan, 2013).
One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors' risk aversion. We first present a simple model on how heterogeneous changes in investors' risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, we empirically show that, when funds' returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were "overweight," increasing their exposure to countries in which they were "underweight." Based on this insight, we construct a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. This index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.
"When Greenspan talks, markets listen, " ("The New York Times"). This in-depth analysis of the words of Alan Greenspan includes highlights of his most influential speeches, and demonstrates his uncanny, far-reaching power to impact markets on a global scale.
The politics of major banking crises has been transformed since the nineteenth century. Analyzing extensive historical and contemporary evidence, Chwieroth and Walter demonstrate that the rising wealth of the middle class has generated 'great expectations' among voters that the government is responsible for the protection of this wealth. Crisis policy interventions have become more extensive and costly - and their political aftermaths far more fraught - because of democratic governance, not in spite of it. Using data from numerous democracies over two centuries, and detailed studies of Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United States, this book breaks new ground in exploring the consequences of the emerging mass political demand for financial stabilization. It shows why great expectations have induced rising financial fragility, more financial sector bailouts and rising political instability and discontent in contemporary democracies, providing new insight to anyone concerned with contemporary policy and politics.