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Remarkable puzzlers, graded in difficulty, illustrate elementary and advanced aspects of probability. These problems were selected for originality, general interest, or because they demonstrate valuable techniques. Also includes detailed solutions.
This book is based on the view that cognitive skills are best acquired by solving challenging, non-standard probability problems. Many puzzles and problems presented here are either new within a problem solving context (although as topics in fundamental research they are long known) or are variations of classical problems which follow directly from elementary concepts. A small number of particularly instructive problems is taken from previous sources which in this case are generally given. This book will be a handy resource for professors looking for problems to assign, for undergraduate math students, and for a more general audience of amateur scientists.
We, the authors of this book, are three ardent devotees of chance, or some what more precisely, of discrete probability. When we were collecting the material, we felt that one special pleasure of the field lay in its evocation of an earlier age: many of our 'probabilistic forefathers' were dexterous solvers of discrete problems. We hope that this pleasure will be transmitted to the readers. The first problem-book of a similar kind as ours is perhaps Mosteller's well-known Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability (1965). Possibly, our book is the second. The book contains 125 problems and snapshots from the world of prob ability. A 'problem' generally leads to a question with a definite answer. A 'snapshot' is either a picture or a bird's-eye view of some probabilistic field. The selection is, of course, highly subjective, and we have not even tried to cover all parts of the subject systematically. Limit theorems appear only seldom, for otherwise the book would have become unduly large. We want to state emphatically that we have not written a textbook in probability, but rather a book for browsing through when occupying an easy-chair. Therefore, ideas and results are often put forth without a machinery of formulas and derivations; the conscientious readers, who want to penetrate the whole clockwork, will soon have to move to their desks and utilize appropriate tools.
This guide provides a wide-ranging selection of illuminating, informative and entertaining problems, together with their solution. Topics include modelling and many applications of probability theory.
Approximately 1,000 problems — with answers and solutions included at the back of the book — illustrate such topics as random events, random variables, limit theorems, Markov processes, and much more.
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairly decent mathematical background in elementary algebra to this world of probabil ity, to the way of thinking typical of probability, and the kinds of problems to which probability can be applied. I have used examples from a wide variety of fields to motivate the discussion of concepts.
For the first two editions of the book Probability (GTM 95), each chapter included a comprehensive and diverse set of relevant exercises. While the work on the third edition was still in progress, it was decided that it would be more appropriate to publish a separate book that would comprise all of the exercises from previous editions, in addition to many new exercises. Most of the material in this book consists of exercises created by Shiryaev, collected and compiled over the course of many years while working on many interesting topics. Many of the exercises resulted from discussions that took place during special seminars for graduate and undergraduate students. Many of the exercises included in the book contain helpful hints and other relevant information. Lastly, the author has included an appendix at the end of the book that contains a summary of the main results, notation and terminology from Probability Theory that are used throughout the present book. This Appendix also contains additional material from Combinatorics, Potential Theory and Markov Chains, which is not covered in the book, but is nevertheless needed for many of the exercises included here.
An intuitive, yet precise introduction to probability theory, stochastic processes, statistical inference, and probabilistic models used in science, engineering, economics, and related fields. This is the currently used textbook for an introductory probability course at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, attended by a large number of undergraduate and graduate students, and for a leading online class on the subject. The book covers the fundamentals of probability theory (probabilistic models, discrete and continuous random variables, multiple random variables, and limit theorems), which are typically part of a first course on the subject. It also contains a number of more advanced topics, including transforms, sums of random variables, a fairly detailed introduction to Bernoulli, Poisson, and Markov processes, Bayesian inference, and an introduction to classical statistics. The book strikes a balance between simplicity in exposition and sophistication in analytical reasoning. Some of the more mathematically rigorous analysis is explained intuitively in the main text, and then developed in detail (at the level of advanced calculus) in the numerous solved theoretical problems.
Developed from celebrated Harvard statistics lectures, Introduction to Probability provides essential language and tools for understanding statistics, randomness, and uncertainty. The book explores a wide variety of applications and examples, ranging from coincidences and paradoxes to Google PageRank and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Additional application areas explored include genetics, medicine, computer science, and information theory. The print book version includes a code that provides free access to an eBook version. The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces. The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment.
Winner of the 2012 PROSE Award for Mathematics from The American Publishers Awards for Professional and Scholarly Excellence. "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library." —Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexing Paradox, the book clearly outlines the puzzles and problems of probability, interweaving the discussion with rich historical detail and the story of how the mathematicians involved arrived at their solutions. Each problem is given an in-depth treatment, including detailed and rigorous mathematical proofs as needed. Some of the fascinating topics discussed by the author include: Buffon's Needle problem and its ingenious treatment by Joseph Barbier, culminating into a discussion of invariance Various paradoxes raised by Joseph Bertrand Classic problems in decision theory, including Pascal's Wager, Kraitchik's Neckties, and Newcomb's problem The Bayesian paradigm and various philosophies of probability Coverage of both elementary and more complex problems, including the Chevalier de Méré problems, Fisher and the lady testing tea, the birthday problem and its various extensions, and the Borel-Kolmogorov paradox Classic Problems of Probability is an eye-opening, one-of-a-kind reference for researchers and professionals interested in the history of probability and the varied problem-solving strategies employed throughout the ages. The book also serves as an insightful supplement for courses on mathematical probability and introductory probability and statistics at the undergraduate level.