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Extreme price movements associated with tail returns are catastrophic for all investors and it is necessary to make accurate predictions of the severity of these events. Choosing a time frame associated with large financial booms and crises this paper investigates the tail behaviour of Asian equity market returns and quantifies two risk measures, quantiles and average losses, along with their associated average waiting periods. Extreme value theory using the Peaks over Threshold method generates the risk measures where tail returns are modelled with a fat-tailed Generalised Pareto Distribution. We find that lower tail risk measures are more severe than upper tail realisations at the lowest probability levels. Moreover, the Kuala Lumpar Composite exhibits the largest risk measures.
The purpose of this paper is to use the extreme value theory to analyze ten Asian stock markets, identifying which type of extreme value asymptotic distribution better fits historical extreme market events. Understanding the influence of extreme market events is of great importance for risk managers. Our empirical tests indicate that the return distributions are not characterized by normality and that the minima and the maxima of the return series may be satisfactorily modeled within an extreme value framework. The average waiting time for an index to present a daily return below/above a specific threshold is generally larger for Asian major markets than for Asian emerging markets. We also compute VaR estimates using extreme value theory and compare the results with the empirical and normal VaR estimates. The results suggest that the extreme value method of estimating VaR is a more conservative approach to determining capital requirements than traditional methods.
Risk and Return in Asian Emerging Markets offers readers a firm insight into the risk and return characteristics of leading Asian emerging market participants by comparing and contrasting behavioral model variables with predictive forecasting methods.
Asian equity markets have grown significantly in size since the early 1990s, driven by strong international investor inflows, growing regional financial integration, capital account liberalization, and structural improvements to markets. The development of equity markets provides a more diversified set of channels for financial intermediation to support growth, thus bolstering medium-term financial stability. At the same time, as highlighted by the May-June 2006 market corrections, the increasing role of stock markets potentially changes the nature of macroeconomic and financial stability risks, as well as the policy requirements for dealing with these risks.
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) maintains that all relevant information is fully and immediately reflected in stock prices and that investors will obtain an equilibrium rate of return. The EMH has far reaching implications for capital allocation, stock price prediction, and the effectiveness of specific trading strategies. Equity market anomalies reflect that the market is inefficient and hence, contradicts the EMH. This book gathers both theoretical and practical perspectives, by including research issues, methodological approaches, practical case studies, uses of new policy and other points of view related to equity market efficiency to help address the future challenges facing the global equity markets and economies. Information Efficiency and Anomalies in Asian Equity Markets: Theories and evidence is an insightful resource that will be useful for students, academics and professionals alike.
A summary of how stock markets work for those looking to invest. This book is a practical guide to Asia’s stock markets for a general audience. It is for people who do not know much about financial markets but, for whatever reason, would like to learn more. They could be seasoned expatriate pilots, academics and other professionals, newcomers in the region as well as students or young men and women about to start in the finance industry. The idea is to cut through the alphabet soup of industry jargon to provide a clear understanding of how these markets work, how they differ from each other in size and depth, what unique features each stock market has and what drives all the different sectors in these markets – consumers, the internet, banks and technology. The book includes helpful history lessons and personal anecdotes drawn from the author’s 30 years in the world of Asian investments.
The fiscal crisis in Europe continues to cast a shadow on the global economic outlook, and the securities issued by the United States and European nations are losing their status as traditional safe assets and reserve value. As a result, investors and governments are looking to diversify their investment portfolio with emerging markets, particularly Asian bonds. Such renewed interest has led to excessive capital inflows, making the region increasingly vulnerable to external shocks. However, on the other hand, it leads to abundant liquidity in the capital markets, which reduces financing costs and expands investment opportunities. This book analyses this dilemma and proposes that development of local bond markets and achieving greater market depth and interconnectedness is the best bet to prevent the reoccurrence of a currency crisis like 1997. It thus, assesses the progress achieved thus far in capital market integration in Asia, and compares it with its global peers. The study also assesses the degree to which volatility in equity and bond market returns, driven by financial turmoil originating at both the regional and global levels, spills over into emerging Asia domestic equity and bond markets. The results of this analysis indicate that such spill-over significantly impacts both domestic equity and bond markets in the region. This finding suggests that on-going regional capital market integration initiatives should take into account the risk of contagion that regional financial integration presents, and introduce measures for mitigating such risk as a means of ensuring financial stability in the region.
Recent evidence in the U.S. and Europe indicates that stocks with high maximum daily returns in the previous month, perform poorly in the current month. We investigate the presence of a similar effect in the emerging Chinese stock markets with portfolio-level analysis and firm-level Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. We find evidence of a MAX effect similar to the U.S. and European markets though the effect appears stronger for longer holding periods. Contrary to U.S. and European evidence, the MAX effect in China does not weaken much less reverse the anomalous IV effect. Both the MAX and IV effects appear to independently coexist in the Chinese stock markets. Interpreted together with the strong evidence of risk-seeking behaviour among Chinese investors, our results are consistent with the suggestion that the negative MAX effect is driven by investor preference for stocks with lottery-like features.
We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.
“Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.