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Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2007 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1,0, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg (Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik), language: English, abstract: Im Kontext der zunehmenden Verflechtung von Volkswirtschaften können Außenhandel und Kapitalströme von besonderer Bedeutung sein, wenn die Wirtschaftswachstumsperspektiven der Länder in Betracht gezogen werden. Diese Aussage findet ihre Bestätigung in entgegengesetzten Wachstumsentwicklungen der baltischen und zentralasiatischen Transformationsökonomien, welche seit den frühen 1990er Jahren bedeutsame Änderungen hinsichtlich Wirtschaftsstruktur und Handelsmuster erfahren haben. Diese Arbeit untersucht, welche Rolle externe Faktoren im Wirtschaftswachstumsprozess in den Transformationsländern des Baltikums (Estland, Lettland und Litauen) und Zentralasiens (Kasachstan, Kirgisistan und Usbekistan) spielen. Dementsprechend lautet die Leitfrage dieser Untersuchung: Sind die betrachteten Wachstumsratenunterschiede in den Transformationsländern des Baltikums und Zentralasiens auf unterschiedliche Entwicklungen in ihren externen Sektoren zurückzuführen? Um diese Frage entsprechend zu beantworten, werden die Länder hinsichtlich der einzelnen zum Wachstum beitragenden Komponenten verglichen. Diese werden empirisch durch das Anwenden des Modells des durch die Zahlungsbilanz beschränkten Wachstums ermittelt. Mit der einfachen Version des Modells lässt sich die Wachstumsleistung der betrachteten Ökonomien mit deren Handelsverhalten, d.h. Exportkapazitäten und Importzwängen verbinden. Die erweiterte Version des Modells ermöglicht, die Wachstumsraten in deren Komponenten – den Effekt des realen Tauschverhältnisses, den Effekt des Exportwachstums und den Effekt der Kapitalzuflüsse – zu zerlegen. Aus den empirischen Ergebnissen kann geschlossen werden, dass die höheren zu beobachtenden Wachstumsraten der baltischen Ökonomien – verglichen mit denen der zentralasiatischen Ökonomien – in der Periode von 1994 bis 2005 auf höhere Werte der Gesamtheit von Exportwachstum, Kapitalzuflüssen und relativen Preisentwicklungen zurückzuführen sind. Die Wachstumsunterschiede innerhalb der betrachteten Regionen können analog erklärt werden. Ferner, ist davon auszugehen, dass die unterschiedlichen Ergebnisse hinsichtlich der angestrebten regionalen Integration bei der Erklärung der unterschiedlichen Wachstumsleistungen des Baltikums und Zentralasiens in Betracht gezogen werden sollten. Das Baltikum war erfolgreicher nicht zuletzt dank der geglückten Integration mit den Ökonomien der Europäischen Union. Zentralasien hat diesbezüglich hingegen weniger erreicht.
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
World Bank Technical Paper No. 394. Joint Forest Management (JFM) has emerged as an important intervention in the management of Indias forest resources. This report sets out an analytical method for examining the costs and benefits of JFM arrangements. Two pilot case studies in which the method was used demonstrate interesting outcomes regarding incentives for various groups to participate. The main objective of this study is to develop a better understanding of the incentives for communities to participate in JFM.
This book analyzes the Central Asian economies of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, from their buffeting by the commodity boom of the early 2000s to its collapse in 2014. Richard Pomfret examines the countries’ relations with external powers and the possibilities for development offered by infrastructure projects as well as rail links between China and Europe. The transition of these nations from centrally planned to market-based economic systems was essentially complete by the early 2000s, when the region experienced a massive increase in world prices for energy and mineral exports. This raised incomes in the main oil and gas exporters, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan; brought more benefits to the most populous country, Uzbekistan; and left the poorest countries, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, dependent on remittances from migrant workers in oil-rich Russia and Kazakhstan. Pomfret considers the enhanced role of the Central Asian nations in the global economy and their varied ties to China, the European Union, Russia, and the United States. With improved infrastructure and connectivity between China and Europe (reflected in regular rail freight services since 2011 and China’s announcement of its Belt and Road Initiative in 2013), relaxation of United Nations sanctions against Iran in 2016, and the change in Uzbekistan’s presidency in late 2016, a window of opportunity appears to have opened for Central Asian countries to achieve more sustainable economic futures.
This report focuses upon aspects of energy production, consumption and efficiency within the transition economies of the countries in central eastern Europe and the Baltic states, south-eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The report is divided into two sections. Part I considers issues of macroeconomic performance and future prospects for growth. Part II contains an analysis of the primary and secondary energy sectors in these countries. The report highlights the challenges facing the energy-rich countries in managing their resources prudently. It discusses key policy issues, such as the need to strengthen governance and transparency in the energy sector, and to increase savings to preserve national wealth for future generations. It also looks at tariff reform as a means of improving energy efficiency, and examines ways of ensuring that the poor do not suffer as a result of tariff adjustments. It highlights the complementary role that private investment in the power sector can play in improving energy efficiency, if accompanied by a strong regulatory framework. The report also contains an assessment of the progress towards transition made by each country, on a range of areas including liberalisation and macroeconomic stabilisation.
The growing economic fissures in the societies of Europe and Central Asia between generations, between insiders and outsiders in the labor market, between rural and urban communities, and between the super-rich and everyone else, are threatening the sustainability of the social contract. The institutions that helped achieving a remarkable degree of equity and prosperity over the course of several decades now face considerable difficulties in coping with the challenges presented by these emerging forms of inequality. Public surveys reveal rising concerns over inequality of opportunity, while electoral results show a marked shift to populist parties that offer radical solutions to voters dissatisfied with the status quo. There is no single solution to relieve these tensions, and attempts to address them will vary considerably across the region. However, this publication proposes three broad policy principles: (1) promote labor market flexibility while maintaining protection for all types of labor contracts; (2) seek universality in the provision of social assistance, social insurance, and basic quality services; and (3) expand the tax base by complementing progressive labor-income taxation with taxation of capital. These principles could guide the rethinking of the social contract and fulfil European citizens’ aspirations for growth and equity.
This book contains 21 papers focusing on a wide range of issues concerning financial sector transition in the countries of Europe and Central Asia (ECA). It places the transition economies in the context of recent and prospective developments in global financial markets. This book also evaluates the experience of the last 10 years and reviews the progress from a command financial system to a market-based one, identifying some of the key characteristics of the financial transition.
The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.