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An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French Franc/Deutsche Mark data during the European Monetary System. The behavior of estimated expected rates of depreciation accord well with the theoretical model of Bertola-Svensson (1990) . We are also able to predict actual realignments with some success.
The stability of the EMS depends crucially on realignment expectations of the market participants. In this paper we discuss how to measure such expectations and how to relate them to economic fundamentals, central bank reputation, and institutional arrangements of the EMS. We find the following empirical regularities for FF/DM and IL/DM exchange rates: (1) expected devaluations are positively related to the current exchange rate deviation from the central parity; (2) expected devaluations are negatively related to the length of time since last realignment in the short and medium run; (3) the Basle-Nyborg agreements seem to have a stabilizing effect for both currencies examined, albeit through different channels; (4) large revaluation expectations occur immediately after devaluations. (1) and (4) are not inconsistent with the hypothesis of over-speculation or market inefficiency.
An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French Franc/Deutsche Mark data during the European Monetary System. The behavior of estimated expected rates of depreciation accord well with the theoretical model of Bertola-Svensson (1990) . We are also able to predict actual realignments with some success.
The purpose of this study is to analyze realignment expectations in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, in particular with reference to the five year period (1987-1992) during which no realignments were done.
The Department of Defense (DoD) is currently implementing recommendations from the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) round, which is the fifth round undertaken by DoD since 1988. The 2005 round is, by GAO's assessment, the biggest, most complex, and costliest BRAC round ever, in part because, unlike previous rounds, the Secretary of Defense viewed the 2005 round as an opportunity not only to achieve savings but also to assist in transforming the department. GAO's testimony addresses the following: (1) GAO's role in the BRAC process, and (2) how DoD's current cost and savings estimates to implement the 2005 recommendations compare to the 2005 Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission's (the Commission) cost and savings estimates. This testimony is based primarily on the report GAO issued yesterday (GAO-08-159) on the overall changes to DoD's cost and savings estimates for the 2005 BRAC round. To analyze these changes, GAO compared the Commission's estimates in its 2005 report to DoD's estimates in its fiscal year 2008 BRAC budget submission. This testimony is also based on several reports GAO has issued on the implementation of selected recommendations, and GAO's prior work assessing the 2005 decision making process. GAO's work was performed in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
Surveying the current state of knowledge on the international monetary system, this volume contains essays on the behaviour of exchange rates, current account adjustment, international debt, European monetary union, capital mobility, the reform of former planned economies, and more.
Currency crises in Europe and Mexico during the 1990s provided stark reminders of the importance and the fragility of international financial markets. These experiences led some commentators to conclude that open international capital markets are incompatible with financial stability. But the pre-1914 gold standard is an obvious challenge to the notion that open capital markets are sources of instability. To deepen our understanding of how this system worked, this volume draws together recent research on the gold standard. Theoretical models are used to guide qualitative discussions of historical experience, while econometric methods are used to help the historical data speak clearly. The result is an overview of the gold standard, a survey of the relevant applied research in international macroeconomics, and a demonstration of how the past can help to inform the present.
"This Handbook adopts a traditional definition of the subject, and focuses primarily on the explanation of international transactions in goods, services, and assets, and on the main domestic effects of those transactions. The first volume deals with the "real side" of international economics. It is concerned with the explanation of trade and factor flows, with their main effects on goods and factor prices, on the allocation of resources and income distribution and on economic welfare, and also with the effects on national policies designed explicitly to influence trade and factor flows. In other words, it deals chiefly with microeconomic issues and methods. The second volume deals with the "monetary side" of the subject. It is concerned with the balance of payments adjustment process under fixed exchange rates, with exchange rate determination under flexible exchange rates, and with the domestic ramifications of these phenomena. Accordingly, it deals mainly with economic issues, although microeconomic methods are frequently utilized, especially in work on expectations, asset markets, and exchange rate behavior."--Publisher's information
This volume is a collection of classical and recent empirical studies of currency options and their implications for issues of exchange rate economics, such as exchange rate risk premium, volatility, market expectations, and credibility of exchange rate regimes. It contains applications on how to extract useful information from option market data for financial forecasting policy purposes. The subjects are discussed in a self-contained, user-friendly format, with introductory chapters on currency option theory and currency option markets.The book can be used as supplementary reading for graduate finance and international economics courses, as training material for central bank and regulatory authorities, or as a reference book for financial analysts.