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Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.
Several Central American (CADR) central banks with independent monetary policies have adopted policy interest rates as their main instrument to signal their monetary policy stances, often in the context of adopting or transitioning to inflation targeting regimes. This paper finds that the interest-rate transmission mechanism, or the pass-through of the policy rate to market rates, is generally weaker and slower in CADR than in the LA6, the countries selected as benchmarks. A variety of potential factors behind this finding are examined, including the degrees of financial dollarization, exchange rate flexibility, bank concentration, financial sector development, and fiscal dominance. Through panel data analysis, the study suggests that the transmission mechanism can be strengthened by increasing exchange rate flexibility, and, over time, by adopting measures towards reducing financial dollarization, developing the financial sector, and reducing bank concentration.
This paper tests several explanations for financial dollarization (FD), with an emphasis on Latin America. The results provide evidence that FD is a rational response to inflation uncertainty. The paper builds on previous research by finding that an exchange rate policy biased towards currency depreciation and currency mismatches tends to contribute to high FD and that FD is highly persistent. These results suggest that countries with significant FD should encourage the use of domestic currency by maintaining macroeconomic stability; allowing more exchange rate flexibility and less bias towards currency depreciation; and adapting prudential regulations to ensure that costs associated with FD are fully internalized in financial contracts. At the same time, restoring confidence in the domestic currency may take many years of sound policies.
This book brings together an impressive and diverse group of authors to discuss its central theme: whether or not the dollarized international monetary system is sustainable in the context of the global economy it helped create. In addition to its uniquely well-rounded and comprehensive coverage of the issues, this lively and highly readable volume provides an accurate assessment of the lack of consensus in the current debate. A must read for anyone interested in currency crises and the increasing vulnerability of the dollar. Jane D Arista, Director of Progams, Financial Markets Center, US This book deals with the economic consequences of monetary integration, which has long been dominated by the Optimal Currency Area (OCA) paradigm. In this model, money is perceived as having developed from a private sector cost minimization process to facilitate transactions. Not surprisingly, the book argues, the main advantage of monetary integration in the OCA context is the reduction of transaction costs, yet the validity of OCA to analyze processes of monetary integration seems to be limited at best. The contributors in this volume try to go beyond the OCA model and understand the political economy of monetary integration by comparing the European Monetary Union with the dollarization (formal and informal) process in Latin America. The contributors, many of whom are leading lights, reflect the disagreements and the changing views on the proper monetary arrangements in a globalized world and suggest that monetary integration and dollarization are not the solution for the great majority of countries around the world. Monetary Integration and Dollarization brings together mainstream and heterodox views of monetary integration and uses the European and North American experiences as a guide for the discussion of dollarization in developing countries. It will appeal to scholars, researchers and policy makers in the fields of financial and international economics.
This paper examines the pattern of dollarization in Latin America, focusing on the experience of five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay) during 1970-1993. It presents evidence on the relative size of dollarization, the allocation of foreign currency deposits, and the behavior of money velocity. The discussion stresses the role of institutional factors, macroeconomic conditions, and the dynamics of money demand In shaping the dollarization process; it also highlights the shortcomings of indicators frequently employed to analyze the phenomenon. The paper provides a brief critical assessment of the empirical literature on dollarization, and identifies areas where further research seems warranted.
This cumulative dissertation comprises a collection of studies analyzing the effects of exchange rate movements on domestic prices. Accordingly, this work primarily contributes to the realm of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). The first study, single-authored, focuses on ERPT and trade patterns. I examine ERPT to price aggregates in the euro area following the introduction of the euro in 1999. I challenge the conventional use of publicly available nominal effective exchange rates (NEERs) of the euro by developing alternative NEERs based on country-specific import trade flows, rather than the euro area ́s aggregated import and export trade flows. In the subsequent three studies, I shift the focus from aggregate price metrics (i.e., the macroscopic perspective) to the analysis of individual prices for fully disaggregate products (i.e., the microscopic perspective), utilizing scanner data. In the second study, again single-authored, I examine the significant depreciation of the British pound following the Brexit referendum in June 2016 to determine the role of extensive margin adjustments for ERPT. Building on this, the third study, co-authored, examines how product-downgrading impacts the distributional effects of inflation. The fourth study, again co-authored, investigates whether significant devaluations of currencies in Latin America against the US dollar lead to relative price movements of imported and domestic products at the retail level in Latin America.
Dollarization - the holding by residents of a substantial portion of their assets in foreign-currency-denominated assets- is a common feature of developing and transition economies, and therefore typical of many countries with IMF - supported adjustment programs. This paper analyzes policy issues that arise-and various monetary strategies that may be pursued- when the monetary sector is dollarized, and it considers the implications that dollarization has for the design of IMF programs.
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.