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This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange market reform in developing countries. The first part reviews the recent experience of Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka with exchange market reform. The second part studies analytically the short-run dynamics of the parallel market premium and the money supply upon unification, when the post-reform regime consists of either a pure float or a managed float. The third part discusses the impact of unification on inflation and quasi-fiscal deficits, and identifies a variety of implicit taxes and subsidies that must be taken into account in assessing the longer-run effects of exchange market reform.
This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange market reform in developing countries. The first part reviews the recent experience of Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka with exchange market reform. The second part studies analytically the short-run dynamics of the parallel market premium and the money supply upon unification, when the post-reform regime consists of either a pure float or a managed float. The third part discusses the impact of unification on inflation and quasi-fiscal deficits, and identifies a variety of implicit taxes and subsidies that must be taken into account in assessing the longer-run effects of exchange market reform.
The paper explores the inflationary implications of exchange rate regime reforms in a small open economy model combining the public finance view of inflation with multiple exchange markets. To account for the experience of many developing countries, the analysis focuses on transitions to multiple official exchange markets. In those countries, multiple exchange rates were often announced as temporary. The paper shows that the dynamic response of inflation to the reform markedly differ whether the announcement is credible or not. The paper also compares the response of inflation under a fixed crawl of nominal official rates and under the presence of policy rules aimed at reducing the spread between the official and parallel exchange rates.
Inflation could rise permanently and substantially as a result of unifying official and black market exchange rates, even if real government spending remains constant.
In an outstanding account of exchange rates inthe international monetary system, W. Max Corden considers the essential issues in international macroeconomics.The author takes as his model the macroeconomic situation of a country with an open economy, and explains the effects of domestic fiscal and monetary macroeconomic policy on exchange rates. He clearly analyses the choices faced by governments attempting to manage both the domestic inflation rateand the external exchange rate and current account balance. Professor Corden then discusses the European Exchange Rate mechanism, and provides a sceptical analysis of the possibilities for monetary union in Europe, and for international policy coordination in general. He gives equal weight todiscussion of the present US-centred international monetary system outside the ERM, and combines theoretical models with an account of the actual determination of floating exchange rates. Although the book itself is orientated towards monetary rather than trade issues, the author discusses twotopical issues: the role of protectionist policies, and the idea of competitiveness. Finally, he looks at the future of the international monetary system and the series of current reform proposals.Students will find this book useful because the author covers essential issues lucidly and authoritatively. The exposition is entirely non-mathematical. Postgraduate students and academics will be interested since Corden is a distinguished writer on international trade and policy, and hisarguments are powerfully presented.New to this edition:This is a revised and expanded edition of a previous book by Corden, Inflation, Exchange Rates and the World Economy, the third edition of which was published in 1985. In this new book, Professor Corden has fully rewritten the text, but retains the discursive, informal, reader-friendly style ofthe earlier editions. In this new edition, Professor Corden has included two new chapters which extend the treatment of macroeconomic policy, separating it into its fiscal and monetary branches. He also includes a new chapter on the role of the current account balance in determining macroeconomicpolicy. The author has brought his account of the present international monetary context up to date - characterised as the non-system - and has included a new analysis of European monetary issues, incorporating a review of the progress of the EMS towards full monetary union. The book also containsa provocative discussion of two highly topical issues: trade protection, and competitiveness, including both new theoretical analysis and such events as the recent GATT agreement.
The IMF has been a major participant in the challenge of transforming many African, Asian, and European countries from centrally planned to market economies. The authors of this book, mainly staff members of the IMF, have distilled their firsthand experience with fiscal reform in transition economies into 15 case studies of these countries. In doing so they analyze issues of privatization, fiscal federalism, social safety nets, and the net worth of the Soviet Union. The editor of the volume is Vito Tanzi, Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department.
Contributed articles with reference to India.
The analysis focuses on the government budget constraint and the resolution of inconsistent implications of different policy instruments under that constraint. We show how, under floating exchange rates, external shocks or internal structural reforms may cause jumps in inflation and the exchange rate through their impact on the government budget. In order to achieve a sustainable reduction in inflation an exchange rate freeze or crawling peg is shown to require restrictions not only on domestic credit, but also on the rate of increase in interest-bearing public debt. We endogenize regime collapse by introducing rational speculation against the central bank, and show that if an exchange rate freeze collapses, post-collapse inflation will exceed the rate prevailing before the freeze started