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Scientific Study from the year 2020 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, , language: English, abstract: The paper investigates what may be the impact of the predicted fall of FDI on GDP in SSA. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2019) indicated that FDI flows to Africa increased by 11 percent to $46 billion, despite declines in many of the larger recipient countries. The increasing of FDI flows was justified by continued resource-seeking inflows, some diversified investments, and a recovery in South Africa after several years of low-level inflows. However, the predictions of 2020 regarding FDI flows are dramatic. Compared to 2019, global flows of FDI are expected to decrease by up 40 percent from their value $1.5 trillion in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2020). This organization predicted a fall of FDI to reach -45 to -30 in Europe, North America -35 to -20, -40 to -25 in Africa, -45 to -30 in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean -55 to – 40, and in transition economies -45 to -30. The prediction for Africa of a 25-40 percent decline is based on GDP growth projections as well as a range of investment-specific factors. The same organization indicated a decline in GDP growth for Africa from 3.2 per cent to -2.8 percent. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the relationship between FDI and GDP through import (IMP), export (EXP), gross capital formation (GCF), and household consumption (HHC), and government expenses (GEXP). Specifically, the study tends to address the following sub-objectives: Analyzing the relationship between FDI-GDP-HHC-GEXP-GCF-EXP-IMP. Analyzing direct, and indirect impact of FDI on GDP for 40 SSA altogether. Investigating the impact of FDI on GDP in SSA countries whose FDI is under median on one hand, and SSA countries whose FDI is greater than median, on the other hand. Finally, comparing the impact of FDI on GDP in 12 SSA with highest and lowest FDI.
The paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a large sample of sub-Saharan African countries during 1981-92. The results indicate that (i) an increase in private investment has a relatively large positive impact on per capita growth; (ii) growth is stimulated by public policies that lower the budget deficit in relation to GDP (without reducing government investment), reduce the rate of inflation, maintain external competitiveness, promote structural reforms, encourage human capital development, and slow population growth; and (iii) convergence of per capita income occurs after controlling for human capital development and public policies.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
The multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) method is a well-established tool for measuring informal economic activity. However, it has been criticized because GDP is used both as a cause and indicator variable. To address this issue, this paper applies for the first time the light intensity approach (instead of GDP). It also uses the Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) method to estimate the size of the informal economy for Sub-Saharan African countries over 24 years. Results suggest that informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa remains among the largest in the world, although this share has been very gradually declining. It also finds significant heterogeneity, with informality ranging from a low of 20 to 25 percent in Mauritius, South Africa and Namibia to a high of 50 to 65 percent in Benin, Tanzania and Nigeria.
This study analyzes the characteristics, motivations, strategies, and needs of FDI from emerging markets. It draws from a survey of investors and potential investors in Brazil, India, South Korea, and South Africa.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
The sizeable increase in income inequality experienced in advanced economies and many parts of the world since the 1990s and the severe consequences of the global economic and financial crisis have brought distributional issues to the top of the policy agenda. The challenge for many governments is to address concerns over rising inequality while simultaneously promoting economic efficiency and more robust economic growth. The book delves into this discussion by analyzing fiscal policy and its link with inequality. Fiscal policy is the government’s most powerful tool for addressing inequality. It affects households ‘consumption directly (through taxes and transfers) and indirectly (via incentives for work and production and the provision of public goods and individual services such as education and health). An important message of the book is that growth and equity are not necessarily at odds; with the appropriate mix of policy instruments and careful policy design, countries can in many cases achieve better distributional outcomes and improve economic efficiency. Country studies (on the Netherlands, China, India, Republic of Congo, and Brazil) demonstrate the diversity of challenges across countries and their differing capacity to use fiscal policy for redistribution. The analysis presented in the book builds on and extends work done at the IMF, and also includes contributions from leading academics.
This first, annual issue of Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes economic, trade, and institutional issues in 2004, and prospects in 2005, for the 42 countries covered by the IMF African Department (for data reasons, Eritrea and Liberia are excluded). Topics examined include responses to exogenous shocks, growth performance and growth-enhancing policies, and the effectiveness of regional trade arrangements. Detailed aggregate and country data (as of February 24, 2005) are provided in the appendix.
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.