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"With growth in Europe and Central Asia likely at its peak, this report addresses two questions. How well is the region prepared for an expected slowdown? How well has the economic upswing been used to adjust to the digital revolution? The report specifically focuses on cryptocurrency and blockchain activities in the region."
With growth in Europe and Central Asia likely at its peak, this report addresses two questions. Howwell is the region prepared for an expected slowdown? How well has the economic upswing beenused to adjust to the digital revolution? The report specifically focuses on cryptocurrency andblockchain activities in the region.
Economic growth slowed sharply last year in Europe and Central Asia, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a surge in inflation, and the sharp tightening of monetary policy and financing conditions hit private consumption, investment, and trade. The marked increase in food and energy prices boosted inflation to a pace not seen in 20 years. The burden of inflation was spread unevenly across households. The poorest households faced inflation that was more than 2 percentage points higher than the inflation faced by the richest households, with this difference exceeding 5 percentage points in some countries. Poverty and inequality rates derived from household-specific inflation rates differ from those based on the standard consumer price index (CPI) approach. These differences have important policy implications, because many programs use CPI†“based inflation adjustments, which do not accurately capture changes in the cost of living of targeted populations. Output growth in the region is projected to remain little changed in 2023 but better than projected in January 2023, largely reflecting upgrades to the pace of expansion in Poland, Russia, and Türkiye.
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.
The Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition in Europe and Central Asia 2018 provides new evidence for monitoring trends in food security and nutrition within the framework of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. The in-depth analysis of progress made against Sustainable Development Goal 2 Target 2.1 (to end hunger and ensure access to food by all) and Target 2.2 (to end all forms of malnutrition), as well as the state of micronutrient deficiencies, is complemented by a review of recent policy measures taken to address food security and nutrition in all its dimensions. The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region encompasses great economic, social and environmental diversity, and its countries are facing various food security and nutrition challenges. While they have made significant progress in reducing the prevalence of undernourishment over the past two decades, new evidence shows a stagnation of this trend, particularly in Central Asia. Malnutrition in one or more of its three main forms – undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity – is present to varying degrees in all countries of the region. Often, all three forms coexist, creating what is called the “triple burden of malnutrition.” Overweight among children and obesity among adults continue to rise – with now almost one-fourth of the region’s adults obese – and constitute a significant concern for future health and well-being and related costs. While poverty levels in most ECA countries have been declining in recent years, poverty coupled with inequality has led to increased vulnerability of disadvantaged groups and populations in rural and remote areas of low- and lower-middle-income countries. New analysis shows that adult women have a higher prevalence of severe food insecurity than men in some areas, pointing to gender inequalities that are reflected in access to food. Addressing gender and other inequalities is key to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and heeding the call to “leave no one behind.” The publication’s focus this year is on migration, gender and youth and the linkages with rural development and food security in Europe and Central Asia. Migration is linked in multiple ways to gender, youth, and agricultural and rural development – both as a driver and possible source of development opportunities, with labour migration and remittances playing significant roles in the region. Changing migration processes need to be fully understood to better address the challenges of migration and harness the potential benefits for sustainable development and revitalized rural areas. Governments, public and private institutions, communities and other concerned parties must strengthen collaboration and scale up efforts towards achieving the goals of a thriving, healthy and food-secure region.
Governments play a critical role in the economies of Europe and Central Asia, where government expenditures are close to 40 percent of gross domestic product and the public sector accounts for nearly 27 percent of total employment, which is almost twice the global average. The public sector often attracts some of the best educated workers in the region. And support for a larger public sector is increasing due to aging populations and their growing health care and long-term care needs, rising inequality and greater support for redistribution, and increasing expenditures as governments address the challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis. The significant role that government plays underscores the importance of the quality of governance in determining productivity and growth and effectively responding to the region’s economic and social challenges. Digital technology and the data revolution offer the potential to increase efficiency, transparency, responsiveness, and citizen trust, directly impacting the quality of government. Across the world, the quality of government is increasingly informed by the extent to which governments harness digital tools and GovTech to optimize management, service delivery, and overall state capacity. Technology and data are also key for fostering collaboration between governments and civil society to improve public sector efficiency and service delivery. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the costs associated with delaying digitalization and GovTech implementation and the opportunities that lie in public sector modernization.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
With slowing global growth and increasing uncertainty clouding the global economic prospects, the Europe and Central Asia region faces a more challenging context than previously envisioned. Growth in the emerging markets and developing economies in the region slowed in 2018 and is projected to decline to further in 2019, before picking up in 2020-21. What challenges does the region face in the coming year? In the long run, how should policy makers design policies that boost growth and help individuals and firms adjust to the interplay between globalization and technological change? Within the global context, this update summarizes the recent developments and outlook for the region. The focus of this issue is on financial inclusion in the region, as one of the important policy areas that can promote long-term growth, reduce poverty, and enhance resilience to shocks.
Trade played a pivotal role during the transition of many. countries in Europe and Central Asia to market economies. It forced a more efficient use of resourced and supported adoption of new technologies. Going forward, trade will again be crucial as countries adjust to new specialization patterns in the world. The adjustment requires not merely tweaking of trade policies, but rather a rethinking of how labor markets and capital markets are organized.
The share of immigrants in Western and Eastern Europe has increased rapidly over the past four decades. Today, one of every three immigrants in the world goes to Europe. Furthermore, although globally only one-third of migration takes place within regions, intraregional migration is especially high within Europe and Central Asia, with 80 percent of the region's emigrants choosing to move to other countries in the region. In high-income destination countries, migrants are often blamed for high unemployment and declining social services. There are also widespread concerns about brain drain in the migrant sending countries of Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans, and Central Asia. This update focuses on the design of policies on labor mobility and presents the trends, determinants, and impacts of low- and high-skilled labor.