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This outlook covers the period from 2020 to 2030 and reflects on current agricultural and trade policies. Projections are based on the latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook updated with the most recent global macroeconomic and market data. According to macroeconomic assumptions, the global economy will rebound in 2021-2022 and level off at an annual average growth of 3% by 2030. The EU economy should recover to its pre-COVID-19 level by 2023. The oil price, after bottoming out at USD 41/bbl in 2020, is due to reach USD 83/bbl in 2030. A moderate appreciation of the euro is expected in the medium term, reaching USD 1.16/EUR by 2030. These assumptions are based on average economic trends, so they presume market developments to be relatively smooth. However, in reality markets tend to be much more volatile. Recent free trade agreements (FTAs) are included if they have already been implemented (with Ukraine, Japan, Vietnam and Canada), while the ones only concluded are not (with Mercosur and the updated FTA with Mexico). Regarding the future relationship between the EU-27 and the UK, there is a purely technical assumption that duty-free/quota-free trading relations will continue. As macroeconomic projections and crop yield expectations are by nature surrounded by uncertainty, a systemic uncertainty analysis has been carried out, which enables us to illustrate possible developments caused by the uncertain conditions in the economy and agricultural markets. This report presents possible price ranges around the expected baseline. In addition, to address the implications of the uncertainties surrounding the post-pandemic recovery, specific scenarios look at alternative COVID-19 recovery pathways. Finally, a scenario about the use of food losses and food waste for insect farming to produce protein meal and oil for aquaculture is analysed and presented in the report.
This report provides a medium-term outlook for major EU agricultural markets and agricultural income to 2030. It is based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis, including the continuation of current agricultural and trade policies. The analysis relies on information available at the end of September 2019 for agricultural production and on an agro-economic model used by the European Commission.
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.
This report brings into the public domain information on the process whereby the European Commission currently derives its agricultural outlook, consisting of baseline projections and market-related analysis of EU agricultural commodities (cereals, oilseeds, biofuels, sugar, meat, and milk and dairy products). The baseline is conditional upon on specific assumptions about agricultural and trade policies and the macroeconomic environment. The process relies heavily on the use of three complementary agro-economic simulation models, which are used sequentially to produce harmonised projections up to 2020 at different levels spatial disaggregation globally and within the EU. However, the modelling approach is also greatly enriched by expert knowledge from a wide range of specialisms and organisations (policy makers, modellers and market experts from the EU, third countries, international organisations and stakeholders). Opportunities to develop the baseline methodology are also discussed.
This report provides a medium-term outlook for major EU agricultural markets, income and environment to 2031. It is based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis, including the continuation of current agricultural and trade policies. The markets' analyses rely on information available at the end of September 2021 for agricultural production and on an agro-economic model used by the European Commission.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with input from Member governments and international commodity organisations.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, incorporating expertise from collaborating member countries and international commodity organisations. It provides market projections for national, regional and global supply and demand of major agricultural commodities, biofuel and fish.
The Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. This year's edition features a short scenario on COVID-19 and its impact on food and agriculture.