Download Free Estimating Operating And Support Cost Models For Us Naval Ships Book in PDF and EPUB Free Download. You can read online Estimating Operating And Support Cost Models For Us Naval Ships and write the review.

With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost model which can be used to determine the annual O&S costs of U.S. Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships based on known (or assumed) physical characteristics and manpower expectations. Source data for the cost model is obtained from the Navy Visibility and Management of O&S Costs (VAMOSC) database, a historical cost database maintained by the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA). Through standard regression and data analysis techniques, cost estimating relationships are developed for three major cost drivers: ship light displacement, ship overall length, and ship manpower. The formulated parametric cost model is a top-level and fairly reliable representation of average annual O&S cost, and it can be used by the DOD cost community to perform component cost analyses or independent cost estimates.
With the end of the Cold War, the winds of military downsizing are blowing all over the world. Downsizing means fewer personnel, less facilities and smaller military budget. Therefore, understanding the relationships among factors responsible for force operating costs is extremely important when facing downsizing budgetary decisions. This study analyzes the U.S. Navy main combatant vessels' Operating and support costs. It seeks to reveal basic relationships of O and S costs through accounting and structural methods. The accounting oriented analysis found the VAMOSC-SHIPS and Jane's combined database to be relatively accurate with the exception of nuclear submarines and nuclear aircraft carriers. The structural analysis found that the overhaul cost should be analyzed separately due to essential differences used to calculate overhaul costs and a 1985 policy revision to ship overhaul. O and S cost relationships between factors other than overhauls were strong. Manpower was found to have the most dramatic effect on determining O and S costs.
This study provides parametric O&S cost models for future US Navy aircraft acquisition programs based on physical and performance parameters. The proposed parametric cost models provide decision makers with a tool for developing rough-order-of-magnitude annual O&S cost estimates for future US Navy aircraft acquisition programs. The historic aircraft cost data was provided by the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA) in a spreadsheet format and the data were extracted from the Navy Visibility and Maintenance of Operating and Support Cost (VAMOSC) data warehouse. After validating the assumption that the average annual O&S cost for any aircraft type/model/series is constant from year to year, cost estimating relationships are developed. The first model developed is based on multivariate regression. In this case, forward stepwise regression was used to find the model with the best fit. Since the multivariate regression model turns out to be impractical, having more than 30 variables in the equation, a tree-based model is presented as an alternative. Additionally, single variable cost estimating relationships are formulated based on the physical and performance parameters length, weight, and thrust.
The report is in two parts. Part I details the development and implementation of an operating and support cost model for aircraft carriers and surface combatants. Twenty-three O and S cost elements were identified and defined, with close adherence being maintained to the draft CAIG Operating and Support Cost Development Guide for Naval Ships, the Navy Resource Model (NARM), and the work of the Visibility and Management of Support Costs (VAMOSC) Study Group. Cost data were obtained from three principal sources: Navy Cost Information System (NCIS), NARM Program Factors, and the Center for Naval Analyses' SOCER Study. Procedures consisting of parametric cost-estimating relationships, cost factors and 'thruput' estimates were developed for the full set of cost elements. Those procedures were incorporated into an automated model which was then used to estimate annual O and S costs for the DD-963 and the FFG-7. Part II of the report summarizes all the work accomplished under the contract and provides a listing of all technical reports submitted. (Author).
This document provides guidelines for preparing and presenting estimates of operating and support (O & S) costs to the OSD Cost Analysis Improvement Group (CAIG) and the Defense Systems Acquisition Review Council (DSARC) and for Navy milestone reviews as appropriate. These guidelines are intended to achieve consistent and effective preparation and documentation of ship O & S cost estimates such that relevant and significant O & S costs to the alternatives presented are highlighted. This guide might also be conceptually useful for other reviews.
The Navy plans to spend about $28 billion to buy 55 Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) and at least 64 interchangeable mission packages to perform one of three missions ¿ mine countermeasures, antisubmarine warfare, and surface warfare ¿ in waters close to shore. The Navy has been developing two different LCS seaframes and plans to select one for production in 2010. Due to the small 78-person crew size ¿ 40 core crew, 23 for aviation detachment, and typically 15 for mission packages ¿ the Navy is developing new concepts for personnel, training, and maintenance. This report assessed the extent to which DoD has: (1) estimated LCS long-term operating and support costs; and (2) developed plans to operate and support LCS. Illustrations.
The purpose of this research was to determine both the added operating and support (O & S) costs and affordability of operating and maintaining a future naval battle force of 324 ships as proposed in the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan. Cost estimation including regression, 3-year moving averages, point, expert and analogous modeling was used to capture both historical and future O & S costs from FY1991 to FY2024. With an emphasis on the three main cost drivers, (manpower, fuel and maintenance) which arguably had the largest influence on ships' O & S costs, data were obtained from the Visibility & Management of Operating & Support Cost (VAMOSC) database and various Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). Analysis and modeling followed suite in order to forecast expected future costs and affordability for a proposed 12.5 percent growth in naval fleet size by FY2024. Reviewing all 29 classes of ship within the expected FY2024 battle force, normalized results from the cost estimation models yielded a minimum cost growth of 17 percent in O & S costs. Even if budget growth trend rates were to remain steady, negating the possibility of budget decreases, this thesis argues the Navy would still not be able to afford its proposed future battle force in FY2024.
NAVSEA Cost Estimating Handbook (2005) *Printed in Black and White to reduce cost* Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEASYSCOM or NAVSEA) explains how a NAVSEA cost estimate is an assemblage of separate, distinct, and subordinate parts and each subordinate part is treated as a whole to be separated into its elements for examination, modification, and/or updating before becoming a part of a total estimate. The NAVSEA cost estimating process is at once analytical and synthesizing in nature using established methods and valid data, to estimate the future costs of a program, based on what is known today. It is an organized approach designed to accurately calculate the future costs of ships, submarines, and weapons systems. The management of a cost estimate involves continually updating the estimate with actual data as they become available, revising the estimate to reflect changes, and analyzing differences between estimated and actual costs-for example, using data from a reliable earned value management (EVM) system. Anyone that has ever managed a project knows the value of a good cost estimate.The ability to generate reliable cost estimates is a critical function, necessary to support the NAVSEA capital programming process. Without this ability NAVSEA is at risk of experiencing cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls-all recurring problems that program assessments too often reveal. Furthermore, cost increases often mean that NAVSEA cannot fund as many programs as intended or deliver them when promised. The methodology outlined in this guide is a compilation of best practices that federal cost estimating organizations and industry use to develop and maintain reliable cost estimates throughout the life of a NAVSEA acquisition program. Why buy a book you can download for free? We print this book so you don't have to. First you gotta find a good clean (legible) copy and make sure it's the latest version (not always easy). Some documents found on the web are missing some pages or the image quality is so poor, they are difficult to read. We look over each document carefully and replace poor quality images by going back to the original source document. We proof each document to make sure it's all there - including all changes. If you find a good copy, you could print it using a network printer you share with 100 other people (typically its either out of paper or toner). If it's just a 10-page document, no problem, but if it's 250-pages, you will need to punch 3 holes in all those pages and put it in a 3-ring binder. Takes at least an hour. It's much more cost-effective to just order the latest version from www.Amazon.com This material is published by 4th Watch Publishing Co. We publish tightly-bound, full-size books at 8 1⁄2 by 11 inches, with large text and glossy covers. 4th Watch Publishing Co. is a Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business (SDVOSB). Please visit www.usgovpub.com. DoDi 5000.02 Operation of the Defense Acquisition System DoD Contract Pricing Reference Guide DoD Operating and Support Cost-Estimating Guide
Operating and Support (O & S) costs for the V/STOL and Spruance class destroyers (DD963) are provided. These figures are compared to the figures presented to the DSARC at Milestone I. Annual operating and support costs of the Air Detachment are not included in this report. The costs growth reflected in both the V/STOL and DD963 class destroyer is due mainly to the rise in POL costs from $1.25 per gal. to $1.32 per gal., plus a slight rise in manpower requirements. The Spruance class destroyer was selected as the baseline due to similarities of most ship systems and size. It does not reflect the system being replaced. The V/STOL destroyer is a new concept to meet expanding commitments.
A common first step in estimating costs of naval ship categories is to use a linear relationship based on ship displacement. Such estimates represent rough initial approximations. This process can be used, however, with better accuracy to estimate the cost of procurement of aggregations of naval ships and classes. Cost estimating relationships (CERs) are developed in this paper for such applications.