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During the last decade, Latin American countries have moved towards becoming more open and financially integrated. At the same time, the region has appeared to adopt a "bipolar" position concerning exchange rate regimes. Most countries have moved towards more flexible exchange rates, while others have implemented hard pegs in the form of dollarization. This dissertation has two goals. First, to measure linkages and dynamics across Latin American foreign exchange markets. Second, to explore how exchange rate uncertainty impacts U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) into Latin America. In order to study interactions among these markets, I focus on the level of the currency and a measure of its volatility. I test for first and second order common features: common stochastic trends and common volatility. Evidence of common features in the foreign exchange markets has substantial implications. From a macroeconomic perspective, they indicate movements toward financial integration. From the point of view of investors, it has implications in terms of the assessment of risk and the development of hedging strategies. The existence of common stochastic trends is analyzed across countries, trade areas, and over different periods of time using Johansen (1991, 1995) and Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration tests. The existence of a common volatility process is tested using a factor autoregressive heteroscedastic (ARCH) model and the Engle and Kozicki (1993) methodology. The evidence suggests that most countries' currencies are cointegrated with the Brazilian real. This finding implies that the Brazilian real displays useful information about the long-run path of other currencies in the region. In terms of volatility dynamics, while most currencies display evidence of time-varying variance, the volatility movements in the foreign exchange market seems to be mainly country specific. Finally, I analyze the impact of exchange rate changes and exchange rate uncertainty on U.S. FDI inflows into Latin America. Following Engle and Lee (1999), exchange rate uncertainty is decomposed into a transitory and a permanent component. While controlling for other foreign investment determinants, the results indicate that exchange rate uncertainty appears to be detrimental to FDI inflows.
The essays brought together in this volume share a common objective: To bring a unifying methodological approach to the analysis of financial problems in developing, open economies. While the primary focus is on contemporary Latin America, the methods employed and the lessons learned are of wider applicability. The papers address the financial integration issue from three different perspectives. In some cases, a country study is the vehicle for an econometric investigation of a particular external linkage. In other cases, an individual country's experience suggests an economic model in which the stylized facts may be analyzed and developed. A third direction is unabashedly theoretical and formulates more general principles which are broadly applicable rather than country-specific.
'The collection of essays would provide an excellent supplement to course texts by emphasising the practical applications of theoretical ideas to contemporary international issues.' - Nick Snowden, The Economic Journal '. . . this volume provides an interesting collection of papers for those seeking a better understanding of the financial aspects of LDEs' relations with the rest of the world and, in particular, for those wishing to explore the vastly different experience with foreign borrowing of East Asia, on the one hand, and Latin America, on the other.' - Ross McLeod, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature Debt, Deficits and Exchange Rates presents recent work by Helmut Reisen on current international monetary problems in East Asia and Latin America. Written over the last four years, these papers are readily accessible and of immediate policy relevance.
This work grew out of a series of investigations begun by the authors in 1980 and 1981. Specifically the authors pursued two lines of inquiry. First, to advance the state of the theoretical lit erature to better explain the crises of liberalization which seemed to be afflicting the third world in general and Latin America in particular. To do this, several different kinds of models were in vestigated and adapted. These are presented in Chapters 2, 3 and 5. Secondly an analysis of the empirical evidence was conducted in order to gain insight into the processes that were thought to be occurring and the theoretical models that were being developed. Some of this work appears in Chapters 3, 4, 5 and 6. Other work by the authors on these issues has been published elsewhere and is referenced herein. There are a great many people whose work and whose com ments have influenced this work. We would like to especially thank Guillermo Calvo, Michael Connolly, Sebastian Edwards, Roque Fernandez, Michael Darby, Robert Clower, Neil Wallace, John Kareken, Paul McNelis, Jeffrey Nugent, Jaime Marquez, Lee Ohanian, Leroy Laney, Jorge Braga de Macedo, Dale Henderson, vii Matthew Canzoneiri, Arthur Laffer, Marc Miles, and George Von Furstenberg whose ideas and comments gave rise to much of our work. We would like to thank Suh Lee for his assistance with the computations in Chapter 5.
Foreign exchange intervention is widely used as a policy tool, particularly in emerging markets, but many facets of this tool remain limited, especially in the context of flexible exchange rate regimes. The Latin American experience can be informative because some of its largest countries adopted floating exchange rate regimes and inflation targeting while continuing to intervene in foreign exchange markets. This edited volume reviews detailed accounts from several Latin American countries’ central banks, and it provides insight into how and with what aim many interventions were decided and implemented. This book documents the effectiveness of intervention and pays special attention to the role of foreign exchange intervention policy within inflation-targeting monetary frameworks. The main lesson from Latin America’s foreign exchange interventions, in the context of inflation targeting, is that the region has had a considerable degree of success. Transparency and a clear communication policy have been key. For economies that are not highly dollarized, rules-based intervention helped contain financial instability and build international reserves while preserving inflation targets. The Latin American experience can help other countries in the design and implementation of their policies.
Foreign exchange black markets in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Jamaica and Peru were studied during the period 1990-93. This group of case studies presents a broad view of the phenomenon in Latin America at the beginning of the 1990s. This is not a traditional economic analysis of foreign exchange markets, for many reasons. Most importantly, since black markets are illegal by definition, they are not recorded in offical statistics and the participants are not easily identified. Nevertheless, these markets are often widely used and well known to people living in the Latin American countries, so it is possible to paint a reasonably accurate picture of them. The work is based largely on interviews with black market participants in each country. This primary means of collecting information was desirable because of the general lack of published sources of data or other records; though published information was also used when available. The book discusses foreign exchange black markets from a variety of perspectives, looking at who participates in them, how they function, and what impacts they have on local economies.