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This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
This first volume in a three-volume exposition of Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics" explores a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. This is the first volume in a three-volume exposition of Martin Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics"--a term he coined in 1959 to describe the theoretical underpinnings needed for the construction of an economic dynamics. The goal is to develop a process-oriented theory of money and financial institutions that reconciles micro- and macroeconomics, using as a prime tool the theory of games in strategic and extensive form. The approach involves a search for minimal financial institutions that appear as a logical, technological, and institutional necessity, as part of the "rules of the game." Money and financial institutions are assumed to be the basic elements of the network that transmits the sociopolitical imperatives to the economy. Volume 1 deals with a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. Volume 2 explores the new economic features that arise when we consider multi-period finite and infinite horizon economies. Volume 3 will consider the specific role of financial institutions and government, and formulate the economic financial control problem linking micro- and macroeconomics.
In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
This important book is a teaching manual, in nontechnical language, on policymaking in developing countries. Written at the request of the Economic Development Institute of the World Bank, the papers focus on policy instruments, their use and constraints, and provide case studies of economic policy in Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Korea, and Mexico to illustrate basic problems and possible solutions.
Essays by leading economists and scholars reflecting on Mundell's broad influence on modern open-economy macroeconomics.
A comprehensive account of how government deficits and debt drive inflation Where do inflation and deflation ultimately come from? The fiscal theory of the price level offers a simple answer: Prices adjust so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of taxes less spending. Inflation breaks out when people don’t expect the government to fully repay its debts. The fiscal theory is well suited to today’s economy: Financial innovation undermines money demand, and central banks don’t control the money supply or aggressively change interest rates, invalidating classic theories, while large debts and deficits threaten inflation and constrain monetary policy. This book presents a comprehensive account of this important theory from one of its leading developers and advocates. John Cochrane aims to make fiscal theory useful as a conceptual framework and modeling tool, and for analyzing history and policy. He merges fiscal theory with standard models in which central banks set interest rates, giving a novel account of monetary policy. He generalizes the theory to explain data and make realistic predictions. For example, inflation decreases in recessions despite deficits because discount rates fall, raising the value of debt; specifying that governments promise to partially repay debt avoids classic puzzles and allows the theory to apply at all times, not just during periods of high inflation. Cochrane offers an extensive rethinking of monetary doctrines and institutions through the eyes of fiscal theory, and analyzes the era of zero interest rates and post-pandemic inflation. Filled with research by Cochrane and others, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level offers important new insights about fiscal and monetary policy.
Written form 1957 through 1978 by one of the foremost authorities in the field of international economics, this collection of Peter Kenen's previously published essays deals with issues in the pure theory of international trade, international monetary theory, and international monetary reform. The essays in Part I, "Trade, Tariffs, and Welfare," concern the roles of tangible and human capital in the determination of trade patterns, the joint determination of demand conditions and trade patterns, the gains from international trade, and the effects of migration on economic welfare. Part II, "International Monetary Theory and Policy," contains essays on the theory of gold-exchange standard, the determination of forward exchange rates, the demand for international reserves, economic integration and the delineation of currency areas, and the process of balance of payments adjustment under pegged and floating exchange rates. The essays in Part III, "Monetary Reform and the Dollar," are arranged in chonological order, from 1963 through 1977, and focus on the problems and progress of international monetary reform and on the functioning of the present international monetary system. Peter B. Kenen is Walker Professor of Economics and International Finance at Princeton University. The Princeton Sereies of Collected Essays provides facsimile reprints, in paperback and in cloth, of important articles by leading scholars. Originally published in 1981. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Nobel Prize winner James Tobin has made outstanding contributions to modern macroeconomics. In this final collection of his work he examines the economic policies of the United States and its relations with other major economies after 1990. In James Tobin's view, the welfare of populations depends uniquely on these policies and it is important to be aware of their impact. This book brings together James Tobin's recent work, both published and unpublished, on finance and globalization, currency crises and bailouts. Emphasis is placed on international economic relations and policies, and on the IMF and World Bank. In particular, economic and monetary relations among nations, exchange rate problems and policies and the 'Tobin Tax' - popular in Europe but much misunderstood - are discussed. Professor Tobin also examines the impact of his earlier work on recent US fiscal policy. The Clinton administration followed a tight fiscal policy leading to budget surpluses, and this enabled Alan Greenspan at the Federal Reserve to follow an 'easy', low interest rate, monetary policy. This mix was advocated back in the 1950s and 1960s by Paul Samuelson and James Tobin. The memo Professor Tobin wrote for the J.F. Kennedy campaign of 1960 is published for the first time. The policy was not applied until 30-35 years later. Presenting a framework for understanding monetary and fiscal policies and how they determine full employment and growth, the book will prove invaluable to students and scholars of macroeconomics, as well as economists wishing to gain an insight into Professor Tobin's unique contribution to economics.