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This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly rational heterogeneous agents to estimation, time series modelling and empirical analysis and from risk management of interest-rate products, futures price volatility and American option pricing with stochastic volatility to evaluation of risk and derivatives of electricity market. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in these areas and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and financial market modelling, to mathematicians who are interested in applying complexity theory to economics and finance and to market practitioners and researchers in quantitative finance interested in limit order, futures and electricity market modelling, derivative pricing and risk management.
Economic Theory, Dynamics, and Markets. The collection of essays in honor of Ryuzo Sato, written by his colleagues and students, covers the many fields of economic theory and policy to which he has contributed. The first section pays tribute to his contributions to mathematical economics and economic theory. Ryuzo Sato is known for his work in growth theory and technical progress, and the second section has a number of papers on macroeconomics and dynamics. The third section has a number of papers on financial markets and their functioning in Japan and the United States. The next section examines various aspects of the economics of firms and industry. Ryuzo Sato has been very involved in analyzing the economic and business relations between Japan and the United States, and the last section is devoted to comparative analysis of economic systems.
This book adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled “Momentum Uncertainties”, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market is studies. We show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, “Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market”, a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis is proposed. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others, is analized. In chapter 4: “Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?” we explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks is provided. We examine the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, “Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability”, downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity is analyzed. Two primary contributions to the literature follow. First, tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market are estimated. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, we show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled “Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis”. This chapter contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. It focuses on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. We document smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles.
This dissertation examines time-variation in asset volatility surrounding periods of financial market distress. In the first chapter we give a brief introduction of the overall theme of the project, and we outline the models used. The next chapters individually focus on the application of time-varying volatility to important themes in the literature. These include: the behavior of investor risk preferences across periods of stability and distress; inconsistencies in options pricing with regard to the behavior of the underlying asset; and the characterization of time-varying volatility dynamics in equity returns. The second chapter of this dissertation examines the impact of changing asset volatility on the estimation of investor risk preferences. We ask whether prior findings of time-varying behavior for risk preferences may be due in part to a failure to account for changes in volatility. This is an important issue, because there is evidence in the existing literature that suggests a contributing role of risk preferences during periods of crisis and contagion. We use a regime-switching GARCH model for pricing kernel estimation to show that much of the variation in estimated investor risk preferences can be explained by changing volatility instead. In the third chapter we examine stochastic volatility as an additional uncertainty factor regarding the future state of the market. We explore whether this inclusion affects prior findings of options pricing inconsistencies in the literature. Options mispricing is an important topic in debates concerning the role of investor sentiment in market behavior and asset pricing. Results from our investigation indicate that including this additional uncertainty factor does not fully explain away the inconsistencies. Our findings thus appear to support the existing evidence of options mispricing with respect to the behavior of the underlying asset. In the fourth and final chapter of this dissertation, we examine asset volatility dynamics over a long historical time frame from 1871-2013. We demonstrate best fit for the number of distinct volatility regimes and characterize these separate dynamics. There is growing evidence that some economic relationships themselves may change between periods of high and low volatility - understanding changing volatility dynamics is crucial for understanding these economic relationships as well. We also show in this chapter how the estimated high-volatility state matches up with well-documented historical financial market events.
Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.
The essays in this volume explain the key structural features of financial inflation that give rise to financial crisis. These features include excessive reliance on finance to maintain economic activity through rising asset prices. Reliance on asset inflation induces a preoccupation with property values and a new social divide between the asset-rich and the asset-poor that undermines the culture of the welfare state. When debt can no longer be supported by cash flow from asset markets, excess debt plunges economies into economic depression.