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As the so-called Arab Spring has slid into political uncertainty, lingering insecurity and civil conflict, European and American initial enthusiasm for anti-authoritarian protests has given way to growing concerns that revolutionary turmoil in North Africa may in fact have exposed the West to new risks. Critical in cementing this conviction has been the realisation that developments originated from Arab Mediterranean countries and spread to the Sahel have now such a potential to affect Western security and interests as to warrant even military intervention, as France’s operation in Mali attests. EU and US involvement in fighting piracy off the Horn of Africa had already laid bare the nexus between their security interests and protracted crises in sub-Saharan Africa. But the new centrality acquired by the Sahel after the Arab uprisings – particularly after Libya’s civil war – has elevated this nexus to a new, larger dimension. The centre of gravity of Europe’s security may be swinging to Africa, encompassing a wide portion of the continental landmass extending south of Mediterranean coastal states. The recrudescence of the terrorist threat from Mali to Algeria might pave the way to an American pivot to Africa, thus requiring fresh thinking on how the European Union and the United States can better collaborate with each other and with relevant regional actors.
Increased tensions along the Ethiopian- Eritrean border —in a context of internal political turmoil in Ethiopia, increasing political repression in Eritrea, and recent developments in Somalia —raise concerns of expanding instability in the strategically important Horn of Africa. Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa urges the United States to take the risks and spend the resources necessary to resolve the Ethiopia-Eritrea border conflict and thereby reduce tension in the region. It argues that Washington should pressure Ethiopia to demarcate the border and Eritrea to lift restrictions on the UN peacekeeping mission that monitors the border. Washington must also make clear to both countries the costs of continuing to suppress internal dissent —and highlight the benefits of initiating real internal reform and regional cooperation. In addition, the administration should be prepared to cut bilateral assistance programs and enact sanctions if political conditions deteriorate further. Finally, the United States, international donors, and organizations should support long-term peace-building initiatives.
The Third UN is the ecology of supportive non-state actors-intellectuals, scholars, consultants, think tanks, NGOs, the for-profit private sector, and the media-that interacts with the intergovernmental machinery of the First UN (member states) and the Second UN (staff members of international secretariats) to formulate and refine ideas and decision-making at key junctures in policy processes. Some advocate for particular ideas, others help analyze or operationalize their testing and implementation; many thus help the UN 'think'. While think tanks, knowledge brokers, and epistemic communities are phenomena that have entered both the academic and policy lexicons, their intellectual role remains marginal to analyses of such intergovernmental organizations as the United Nations.
This background discussion paper has been developed within Saferworld's two-year research project on "Prevention of violent conflict and the coherence of EU policies toward the Horn Africa countries". The project aims to critically examine the impact of EU policies on the countries of the Horn of Africa as a basis on which to clarify proposals for enhancing the effectiveness of EU efforts to prevent violent conflict. The paper's objectives are to: Consider the link between post-war demilitarisation and reintegration of ex-combatants, refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the risks of violent conflict within the Horn region; Present an initial analysis of EU policy engagement in support of processes of post-conflict demilitarisation and reintegration in the Horn region; Assess the impact of EU policies and engagement on the risks of violent conflict during demilitarisation and reintegration processes and the extent to which incoherent policies are exacerbating actual or potential conflicts; Consider the potential role of the European Community (EC9 and EU member states (MSs) in supporting demilitarisation and reintegration processes in such a way that they contribute to the prevention and resolution of violent conflict in the region. (Adapted from Publisher's Abstract.).
Violent conflicts today are complex and increasingly protracted, involving more nonstate groups and regional and international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—the horizon set by the international community for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals—more than half of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence. Information and communication technology, population movements, and climate change are also creating shared risks that must be managed at both national and international levels. Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-up system for preventive action would save between US$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which could be reinvested in reducing poverty and improving the well-being of populations. The study aims to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomacy, mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflicts from becoming violent. It stresses the importance of grievances related to exclusion—from access to power, natural resources, security and justice, for example—that are at the root of many violent conflicts today. Based on a review of cases in which prevention has been successful, the study makes recommendations for countries facing emerging risks of violent conflict as well as for the international community. Development policies and programs must be a core part of preventive efforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusive solutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomic policies, institutional reform, and redistributive policies are required. Inclusion is key, and preventive action needs to adopt a more people-centered approach that includes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancing the participation of women and youth in decision making is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well as long-term policies to address the aspirations of women and young people.
Elections have emerged as one of the most important, and most contentious, features of political life on the African continent. In the first half of this decade, there were more than 20 national elections, serving largely as capstones of peace processes or transitions to democracies. The outcomes of these and more recent elections have been remarkably varied, and the relationship between elections and conflict management is widely debated throughout Africa and among international observers. Elections can either help reduce tensions by reconstituting legitimate government, or they can exacerbate them by further polarizing highly conflictual societies. This timely volume examines the relationship between elections, especially electoral systems, and conflict management in Africa, while also serving as an important reference for other regions. The book brings together for the first time the latest thinking on the many different roles elections can play in democratization and conflict management.
The September 11 attacks in the USA lent huge impetus to efforts to coordinate and expand the EU's counter-terrorism role, bringing about far-reaching cooperation and pushing the EU down the track of further European integration. In setting out the EU's achievements in the fight against terrorism, the chapters in this book explain how and why this has come about and the mechanisms involved. They also critically assess the limits of such integration and explore the tensions between co-operation and the issue of individual human rights. A selection of key documents rounds out the book with a valuable reference dimension. This book brings together key thinkers and is a welcome analysis of terrorism challenges.