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United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.
Canada’s vaccine rollout is bringing the prospect of an end to the COVID-19 crisis and a pick-up in output growth is expected. An ultra-low policy rate and other monetary measures continue to provide substantial support for the economy and fiscal support for households and businesses has been substantial.
This paper describes recent economic developments, outlook, risks, and policy challenges of the Canadian economy. After almost two years, the effects of the oil price shock continue to reverberate through the Canadian economy. Growth has decelerated, but inflation expectations remain well anchored. With the slowdown in growth, the output gap has reopened. Persistently low energy prices pose an important risk to the economy. The banking system remains sound, but exposure to the oil and gas sector will require higher provisions against expected losses. The policy mix over the near-term should cushion the adverse effects of lower oil prices on the economy while safeguarding financial stability.
The war in Ukraine is a major humanitarian crisis with associated economic shocks that threaten the post-pandemic recovery. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1, highlights the implications and risks for growth, inflation and living standards from higher commodity prices and potential disruptions to energy and food supplies, and discusses the associated policy challenges.