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The roles and applications of various modeling approaches, aimed at improving the usefulness of energy policy models in public decision making, are covered by this book. The development, validation, and applications of system dynamics and agent-based models in service of energy policy design and assessment in the 21st century is a key focus. A number of modeling approaches and models for energy policy, with a particular focus on low-carbon economic development of regions and states are covered. Chapters on system dynamics methodology, model-based theory, fuzzy system dynamics frame-work, and optimization modeling approach are presented, along with several chapters on future research opportunities for the energy policy modeling community. The use of model-based analysis and scenarios in energy policy design and assessment has seen phenomenal growth during the past several decades. In recent years, renewed concerns about climate change and energy security have posed unique modeling challenges. By utilizing the validation techniques and procedures which are effectively demonstrated in these contributions, researchers and practitioners in energy systems domain can increase the appeal and acceptance of their policy models.
Energy plays a vital role in economic and social development. The analysis of energy issues and policy options is therefore a vital area of study. This book presents a hierarchical modelling scheme intended to support energy planning and policy analysis in developing countries. The authors introduce the concept of 'Integrated National energy Planning' (INEP), and examine the spreadsheet models, optimization models, and linear planning models which energy planners use. Environmental considerations are also introduced into the analysis. Techniques are then applied to two important energy subsectors, electricity and fuelwood, before problems of integration and policy implementation are discussed. Throughout the book, the authors examine actual practice in developing countries. Illustrative case material is drawn from Egypt, West Africa, Sudan, Pakistan, Colombia, India, Sri Lanka and Morocco. This book will be of interest to students and practitioners of energy planning, and to those concerned with the wider development implications of energy policy.
In order to address the twenty-first-century challenges of decarbonisation, energy security and cost-effectiveness it is essential to understand whole energy systems and the interconnection and interaction between different components. An integrated language is therefore needed to assist energy policymakers and to help industrial stakeholders assess future energy systems and infrastructure and make realistic technical and economic decisions. Whole Energy System Dynamics provides an interdisciplinary approach to whole energy systems; providing insights and understanding of it in the context of challenges, opportunities and solutions at different levels and time steps. It discusses approaches across disciplinary boundaries as well as existing issues within three main themes: theory, modelling and policy, and their interlinkage with geopolitics, markets and practice. Spataru argues that there is an urgent need for a whole energy system integration. This is necessary for effective analysis, design and control of the interactions and interdependencies involved in the technical, economic, regulatory and social dimensions of the energy system. This book is essential reading for students interested in the area of energy systems, policy and modelling. It is also a valuable read for policymakers, professionals, researchers, academics, engineers and industrial stakeholders.
The complexity and volatility of energy markets creates strong demand for quantitative analysis and econometric techniques. This book offers an introduction to the state of the art in econometric modelling applied to the most pertinent issues in today's energy markets for a better understanding of the working of energy systems and energy economics.
Despite efforts to increase renewables, the global energy mix is still likely to be dominated by fossil-fuels in the foreseeable future, particularly gas for electricity and oil for land, air and sea transport. The reliance on depleting conventional oil and natural gas resources and the geographic distribution of these reserves can have geopolitical implications for energy importers and exporters. Global Energy Policy and Security examines the security of global and national energy supplies, as well as the sensitivity and impacts of sustainable energy policies which emphasize the various political, economic, technological, financial and social factors that influence energy supply, demand and security. Multidisciplinary perspectives provide the interrelated topics of energy security and energy policy within a rapidly changing socio-political and technological landscape during the 21st century. Included are two main types of interdisciplinary papers. One set of papers deals with technical aspects of energy efficiency, renewable energy and the use of tariffs. The other set of papers focuses on social, economic or political issues related to energy security and policy, also describing research, practical projects and other concrete initiatives being performed in different parts of the world. This book will prove useful to all those students and researchers interested in the connections between energy production, energy use, energy security and the role of energy policies.
Using a system dynamics approach, this book illustrates the physics of fundamental accumulation processes (stocks and flows) across the demand and supply sectors of energy systems. Examples of system dynamics simulation models are presented where these accumulation processes are driving the behavior of the system. Based on these modeling efforts, two cases (the socio-economic and environmental implications of the energy policy of Pakistan and the dynamics of green power in Ontario, Canada) are analyzed and discussed. By studying the dynamics of the fundamental structures of an energy system, the reader gains an enhanced understanding of the stocks and flows of complex systems as well as their role in energy policy. This book is of use to managers and practitioners, teachers, researchers, and students of design and assessment of policy making for complex, dynamic energy systems.
This book presents the energy system roadmaps necessary to limit global temperature increase to below 2°C, in order to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change. It provides a unique perspective on and critical understanding of the feasibility of a well-below-2°C world by exploring energy system pathways, technology innovations, behaviour change and the macro-economic impacts of achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century. The transformative changes in the energy transition are explored using energy systems models and scenario analyses that are applied to various cities, countries and at a global scale to offer scientific evidence to underpin complex policy decisions relating to climate change mitigation and interrelated issues like energy security and the energy–water nexus. It includes several chapters directly related to the Nationally Determined Contributions proposed in the context of the recent Paris Agreement on Climate Change. In summary, the book collates a range of concrete analyses at different scales from around the globe, revisiting the roles of countries, cities and local communities in pathways to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make a well-below-2°C world a reality. A valuable source of information for energy modellers in both the industry and public sectors, it provides a critical understanding of both the feasibility of roadmaps to achieve a well-below-2°C world, and the diversity and wide applications of energy systems models. Encompassing behaviour changes; technology innovations; macro-economic impacts; and other environmental challenges, such as water, it is also of interest to energy economists and engineers, as well as economic modellers working in the field of climate change mitigation.
This books explains a strategy that a country can meet its CO2 emission reduction targets (e.g., as are in Paris Agreement) with a dominant share of nuclear power with a balanced energy supply mix. The book starts with an introduction to the subject of energy policy, mechanisms, and CO2 emissions, and the complexity of the CO2 reduction goal. It introduces the system dynamics approach as a solution modeling approach for dealing with the complexity of CO2 reducing policies and mechanisms. The book presents the dynamic model and its key parameters and then elaborates the structural and behavioral validity of the dynamic model. The book gives an intensive review to do that comparative analysis involving China, India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Pakistan. The last half of the book focuses on the case in Pakistan. The author reviews Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and other key sources from Pakistan’s Ministry of Energy and related institutions. Using Pakistan’s case data, the author applies the system dynamics modeling approach whereby a dynamic model, capable of representing the important interactions among various sectors of the electricity supply sector of Pakistan. This book is intended to be of use to policymakers, managers and practitioners, teachers, researchers, and students of design and assessment of policymaking for the complex, dynamic energy systems
Environmental engineers support the well-being of people and the planet in areas where the two intersect. Over the decades the field has improved countless lives through innovative systems for delivering water, treating waste, and preventing and remediating pollution in air, water, and soil. These achievements are a testament to the multidisciplinary, pragmatic, systems-oriented approach that characterizes environmental engineering. Environmental Engineering for the 21st Century: Addressing Grand Challenges outlines the crucial role for environmental engineers in this period of dramatic growth and change. The report identifies five pressing challenges of the 21st century that environmental engineers are uniquely poised to help advance: sustainably supply food, water, and energy; curb climate change and adapt to its impacts; design a future without pollution and waste; create efficient, healthy, resilient cities; and foster informed decisions and actions.
A Brookings Institution Press and Global Public Policy Institute publication The global market for oil and gas resources is rapidly changing. Three major trends—the rise of new consumers, the increasing influence of state players, and concerns about climate change—are combining to challenge existing regulatory structures, many of which have been in place for a half-century. Global Energy Governance analyzes the energy market from an institutionalist perspective and offers practical policy recommendations to deal with these new challenges. Much of the existing discourse on energy governance deals with hard security issues but neglects the challenges to global governance. Global Energy Governance fills this gap with perspectives on how regulatory institutions can ensure reliable sources of energy, evaluate financial risk, and provide emergency response mechanisms to deal with interruptions in supply. The authors bring together decisionmakers from industry, government, and civil society in order to address two central questions: •What are the current practices of existing institutions governing global oil and gas on financial markets? •How do these institutions need to adapt in order to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century? The resulting governance-oriented analysis of the three interlocking trends also provides the basis for policy recommendations to improve global regulation. Contributors include Thorsten Benner, Global Public Policy Institute, Berlin; William Blyth, Chatham House, Royal Institute for International Affairs, London; Albert Bressand, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University; Dick de Jong, Clingendael International Energy Programme; Ralf Dickel, Energy Charter Secretariat; Andreas Goldthau, Central European University, Budapest, and Global Public Policy Institute, Berlin; Enno Harks, Global Public Policy Institute, Berlin; Wade Hoxtell, Global Public Policy Institute, Berlin; Hillard Huntington, Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University; Christine Jojarth, Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, Stanford University; Frederic Kalinke, Department of Politics and International Relations, Oxford University; Wilfrid L. Kohl, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Jamie Manzer, Global Public Policy Institute, Berlin; Amy Myers Jaffe, James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University; Yulia Selivanova, Energy Charter Secretariat; Tom Smeenk, Clingendael International Energy Programme; Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, Department of Politics and International Relations, Oxford University; Ronald Soligo, Rice University; Joseph A. Stanislaw, Deloitte LLP and The JAStanislaw Group, LLC; Coby van der Linde, Clingendael International Energy Programme; Jan Martin Witte, Global Public Policy Institute, Berlin; Simonetta Zarrilli, Division on International Trade and Commodities, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.