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Nations and international organizations are increasingly using sanctions as a means to achieve their foreign policy aims. However, sanctions are ineffective if they are executed without a clear strategy responsive to the nature and changing behavior of the target. In The Art of Sanctions, Richard Nephew offers a much-needed practical framework for planning and applying sanctions that focuses not just on the initial sanctions strategy but also, crucially, on how to calibrate along the way and how to decide when sanctions have achieved maximum effectiveness. Nephew—a leader in the design and implementation of sanctions on Iran—develops guidelines for interpreting targets’ responses to sanctions based on two critical factors: pain and resolve. The efficacy of sanctions lies in the application of pain against a target, but targets may have significant resolve to resist, tolerate, or overcome this pain. Understanding the interplay of pain and resolve is central to using sanctions both successfully and humanely. With attention to these two key variables, and to how they change over the course of a sanctions regime, policy makers can pinpoint when diplomatic intervention is likely to succeed or when escalation is necessary. Focusing on lessons learned from sanctions on both Iran and Iraq, Nephew provides policymakers with practical guidance on how to measure and respond to pain and resolve in the service of strong and successful sanctions regimes.
Analysis of the security challenges presented by six states in the crucible of post-9/11 geopolitical change: Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The Epicenter of Crisis argues that six contiguous states epitomize the security challenges of a post-9/11, globalized, world: Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Characterized by a dramatically transforming Islam, ethnic conflict, civil war, failed states, and terrorism, this “new Middle East” is the epicenter of what some call an arc of crisis, stretching from the Balkans into Southeast Asia. The Epicenter of Crisis examines this geopolitically dynamic region, analyzing the changing role of Islam in these six critical countries, the dangers posed by potential failed states, and the evolving terrorist threat. The contributors, all specialists in Middle East or foreign policy, address such crucial issues as the relationship between the Saudi royal family and Al Quaeda, Syria's waning influence over Hizbollah, media coverage of the war in Iraq, a new U.S. strategy for dealing with Iran, Afghanistan's opium industry, and the effectiveness of U.S. multi-billion-dollar assistance to Pakistan. The Epicenter of Crisis challenges readers to reconceptualize the boundaries of the Middle East in a changed world. Contributors John R. Bradley, Rachel Bronson, Daniel Byman, Derek Chollet, Craig Cohen, Larry Diamond, Emile El-Hokayem, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brian Fishman, Graham E. Fuller, Husain Haqqani, Elliot Hen-Tov, Jorrit Kamminga, Nina Kamp, Alexander T. J. Lennon, Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, C. Raja Mohan, Michael O'Hanlon, Gwenn Okruhlik, Carlos Pascual, Kenneth M. Pollack, Dennis Ross, Karim Sadjadpour, Ashley Tellis, Peter van Ham, Eyal Zisser
Energy security has become a top priority issue for the United States and countries around the globe, but what does the term "energy security" really mean? For many it is assuring the safe supply and transport of energy as a matter of national security. For others it is developing and moving toward sustainable and low-carbon energy sources to avoid environmental catastrophe, while still others prioritize affordability and abundance of supply. The demand for energy has ramifications in every part of the globe—from growing demand in Asia, to the pursuit of reserves in Latin America and Africa, to the increased clout of energy-producing states such as Russia and Iran. Yet the fact remains that the vast majority of global energy production still comes from fossil fuels, and it will take a thorough understanding of the interrelationships of complex challenges—finite supply, environmental concerns, political and religious conflict, and economic volatility—to develop policies that will lead to true energy security. In E nergy Security, Brookings scholars present a realistic, cross-disciplinary look at the American and global quests for energy security within the context of these geopolitical, economic, and environmental challenges. For example, political analysts Pietro Nivola and Erin Carter wrap their arms around just what is means to be "energy independent" and whether that is an advisable or even feasible goal. Suzanne Maloney addresses "Energy Security in the Persian Gulf: Opportunities and Challenges," while economist Jason Bordoff and energy analyst Bryan Mignone trace the links between climate policies and energy-access policies. Carlos Pascual and his colleagues examine delicate geopolitical issues. Assuring long-term energy security remains one of the industrialized world's most pressing priorities, but steps in that direction have been controversial and often dangerous, and results thus far have been tenuous. In this insightful volume, Brookings
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are in disarray, and shifts in the field of energy have the potential to drastically affect the course of political and economic developments in the region. Declining oil prices, skyrocketing domestic demand, the rise of unconventional oil and natural gas production in North America, as well as shifting patterns of global energy trade all put severe pressures on both producing and importing countries in the MENA region. Policy-makers are facing fundamental challenges in light of the duality of grand transformations in (geo)politics and energy. Changes in the field of energy require substantial political and economic reforms, affecting the very fabric of sociopolitical arrangements. At the same time, the MENA region’s geopolitical volatility makes any such reforms extremely risky. Including contributions by academics and analysts from both inside and outside the MENA region, this volume explores the changes in global and regional energy, the impact of changing international energy dynamics on politics and economies in the MENA region, and the challenges that will result. This is essential reading for researchers, postgraduates, and professionals in Middle Eastern and North African politics, global energy governance and regionalism.
“A sprawling story richly textured with original material, quirky details and amusing anecdotes . . .” —Wall Street Journal “It is a cause for celebration that Yergin has returned with his perspective on a very different landscape . . . [I]t is impossible to think of a better introduction to the essentials of energy in the 21st century. The Quest is . . . the definitive guide to how we got here.” —The Financial Times This long-awaited successor to Daniel Yergin’s Pulitzer Prize-winning The Prize provides an essential, overarching narrative of global energy, the principal engine of geopolitical and economic change A master storyteller as well as a leading energy expert, Daniel Yergin continues the riveting story begun in his Pulitzer Prize–winning book, The Prize. In The Quest, Yergin shows us how energy is an engine of global political and economic change and conflict, in a story that spans the energies on which our civilization has been built and the new energies that are competing to replace them. The Quest tells the inside stories, tackles the tough questions, and reveals surprising insights about coal, electricity, and natural gas. He explains how climate change became a great issue and leads readers through the rebirth of renewable energies, energy independence, and the return of the electric car. Epic in scope and never more timely, The Quest vividly reveals the decisions, technologies, and individuals that are shaping our future.
In various instances, countries, regional organizations, and the United Nations have resorted to the use of sanctions as a foreign policy and as a tool for geopolitics, in order to influence the behavior of targeted states. Numerous researches and analyses have been conducted to observe and understand the effectiveness and impact of sanctions, and subsequently dismissed them as either effective, ineffective, or counterproductive to their intended objectives. This study seeks to address the aforementioned question; in particular, whether sanctions remain to be an option as a geopolitical tool to influence the behavior of targeted states. The core of this work consists of three case studies: first, sanctions on the Russian Federation (2014–present); sanctions on Iran (1979 –present, 2006, 2012 –2016); and the US trade embargo on Cuba (1960 –present). These case studies have been analyzed from the structural point of view to understand their specifics, background, and plausible retaliation by the respective state. Then, the technical results achieved by the sanctions are reviewed, and their weaknesses are highlighted. Lastly, numerous relevant arguments are provided to reinforce the conclusion.