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Although accommodative policies and widespread indexation may account for the persistence of high inflation, they cannot explain changes in the inflation rate. This paper examines the causes of such changes for the high-inflation episodes immediately preceding the recent “heterodox” attempts at stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel. An attempt is made to distinguish between the “fiscal” and “balance of payments” views of the causes of high inflation by computing historical decompositions of these episodes based on vector autoregressions. In all three cases, the results indicate that nominal exchange rate shocks played the dominant role in triggering an acceleration of inflation.
Rampant inflation is a major economic problem in many of the less developed countries; two out of three attempts to stabilize these economies fail. Inflation Stabilization provides a valuable description and a critical analysis of the disinflation programs introduced in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Israel in 1985-86, and discusses the possibility of such a program in Mexico. It documents the initial steps in stabilization as well as the reasons for failure.As architects of the programs, several of the authors are in key positions to assess which aspects were critical in getting the programs accepted and where to look for difficulties and failures. In Israel, inflation was halted without recession. The challenge to policy makers today is in shifting from stabilization to the revival of sustained growth. This experience is described fully by Michael Bruno and Sylvia Piterman, who examine the critical issue of exchange rates, and by Alex Cukierman, who uses modeling to analyze the interaction of money, wages, prices, and activity under rational expectations that take the government's policy objectives into account.Endemic inflation and a sudden increase in external debt burden Argentina's economy, raising the wider issues of high inflation economies and stabilization that are discussed in the chapter by José Luis Machinea and that by Guido Di Tella and Alfredo Canavese.Eduardo Modiano and Mario Simonsen take up issues of wages in Brazil, particularly the problem of finding an equitable way to deal with a wage freeze; Simonsen develops an ambitious game theoretic rationalization of incomes policy as a coordinating device for imperfectly competitive economies. Bolivia did reach hyperinflation (price increases of more than 50 percent each month) before stabilizing. Juan Antonio Morales shows how stabilizing the exchange rate, in an economy where all pricing was already geared to the dollar, achieved stabilization without a wage or price freeze. And Francisco Gil Diaz asks whether an incomes-policy based program could work to control ever increasing inflation in Mexico.
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Using a database of up to 62 variables for 196 countries over 57 years, a hyperinflation cycle has been characterized to propose a broader setting of stylized facts. Beyond the usual facts, the findings in this paper contribute to the literature of modern hyperinflations in that these cycles occur in contexts where there are (i) depressed economic freedoms, (ii) deteriorated socioeconomic conditions and rule of law, as well as (iii) high levels of domestic conflictivity and government instability. Despite social infraestructure factors improve during stabilization, they keep being substantially lower than the respresentative non-hyperinflation country, suggesting an important role for them in the occurrence of modern hypeinflations. Finally, the role of international financial assistance in stabilization was studied, noting that (i) a clear majority of hyperinflation countries used it, further improving their (ii) economic freedoms, and allowing themselves (iii) greater fiscal flexibility and (iv) more exchange rate stability.
This paper examines the demand for money under conditions of very high inflation in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile and Peru during the 1970s and 1980s. We test whether the monetary and inflationary experiences of these countries can be adequately characterized by the Cagan (1956) model, using an econometric procedure which is not reliant on any particular assumption concerning expectations formation except that forecasting errors are stationary. We also examine the importance of foreign asset substitution in domestic portfolios.
Although accommodative policies and widespread indexation may account for the persistence of high inflation, they cannot explain changes in the inflation rate. The causes of such changes for the high-inflation episodes immediately preceding the recent “heterodox” attempts at stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel are examined by computing historical decompositions of these episodes based on vector autoregressions, distinguishing between the “fiscal” and “balance of payments” views of their causes. In all three cases, nominal exchange rate shocks played the dominant role in triggering an acceleration of inflation. [JEL 134]