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Using the gravity model to examine bilateral trade patterns throughout the world. we find clear evidence of trading blocs in Europe. the Western Hemisphere, East Asia and the Pacific. In Europe, it is the EC that operates as a bloc, not including EFTA. Two EC members trade an extra 55 per cent more with each other. beyond what can be explained by proximity, size. and GNP/capita. We also find slight evidence of trade-diversion in 1990. Even though the blocs fall along natural geographic lines. they may actually be "super-natural." Turning to the possibility of currency blocs, we find a degree of intra-regional stabilization of exchange rates, especially in Europe. Not surprisingly. the European currencies link to the OM. and Western Hemisphere countries peg to the dollar. East Asian countries, however, link to the dollar. not the yen. We also find some tentative cross-section evidence that bilateral exchange rate stability may have a (small) effect on trade. A sample calculation suggests that if real exchange rate variability within Europe were to double, as it would if it returned from the 1990 level to the 1980 level, the volume of intra-regional trade might fall by an estimated 0.7 per cent.
Dabrowski (Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw, Poland) presents eight comparative papers from a research project carried by his organization between October 1999 and September 2001. The papers examine theoretical models and causes of currency crises; discuss issues of crisis management and the contagion effect; and explore social and political consequences of currency crises. Also included are case studies of 1990s currency crises in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Russia, Ukraine, and Moldova. Annotation 2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com).
HANSGENBERG An international monetary system should provide a stable and predictable environment for international trade and investment. At the very least, it should not by itself be a source of disturbances in the world economy, and it should be designed so that policy errors or unforeseen shocks are not unduly transmitted between countries. In this perspective, worldwide integration of goods and financial markets present a particular challenge. Such integration increases the cross-border effects of economic policies at the same time as interlocking payments and financial systems transmit financial disturbances rapidly throughout the world. As the degree of integration and interdependence changes over time, is not a foregone conc1usion that international monetary institutions and mechanisms always remain well adapted to the state of the world economy. Occasional review of the performance of the system as well as proposals for improvements are therefore necessary. The contributions to this volume have l been brought together with this in mind.
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" In this important new book, C.H. Kwan asks whether the Japanese yen can, or will, replace the dollar as the key currency in East Asia. Kwan analyzes the implications for Japan and Asia's developing countries should they come together to form a yen bloc--a grouping of countries that use the yen as an international currency and maintain stable exchange rates against the yen. Combining academic analysis with his experience advising the Japanese prime minister and the Japanese minister of finance, Kwan concludes that a yen bloc might benefit Asia's developing countries--as well as Japan--while contributing to a more stable international monetary order. Kwan's book represents the first attempt to explore systematically the possibility of monetary integration in Asia. It also provides a vision for regional integration in Asia in the twenty-first century. "
Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.
With the loss of Soviet control in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the move toward economic liberalization in many developing countries, a huge increase in the number of convertible currencies in the world has occurred. A key aspect of the management of these currencies involves their relationships with the world economy, which is determined
China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.
In the aftermath of the Asian/global financial crises of 1997-98, how should emerging markets now structure their exchange rate systems to prevent new crises from occurring? This study challenges current orthodoxy by advocating the revival of intermediate exchange rate regimes. In so doing, Williamson presents a reasoned challenge to the new prevailing attitude which claims that all countries involved in the international capital markets need to polarize to one of the extreme regimes (to a fixed rate with either a currency board or dollarization, or to a lightly-managed float). He concludes that although there is some truth in the allegation that intermediate regimes are vulnerable to speculative crises, they still offer offsetting advantages. He also contends that it would be possible to redesign them to be more flexible so as to reduce their vulnerability to crises.
This volume explores East Asia's macroeconomic experience in the 1980s and the economic impact of East Asia's growth on the rest of the world. The authors explore the causes of capital flows, changes in trade balances, and exchange rate fluctuations in East Asia and their effects on other countries. These fourteen papers are organized around four themes: the overall determinants of growth and trading relations in the East Asian region; monetary policies in relation to capital controls and capital accounts; the impact of exchange rate behavior on industrial structure; and the potential for greater regional integration. The contributors examine interactions among exchange rate movements, trade balances, and capital flows; how government monetary policy affects capital flows; the effect of exchange rates on industrial structure, inventories, and prices; and the extent of regional integration in East Asia.