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This paper marks the launch of a new IMF series, Fintech Notes. Building on years of IMF staff work, it will explore pressing topics in the digital economy and be issued periodically. The series will carry work by IMF staff and will seek to provide insight into the intersection of technology and the global economy. The Rise of Digital Money analyses how technology companies are stepping up competition to large banks and credit card companies. Digital forms of money are increasingly in the wallets of consumers as well as in the minds of policymakers. Cash and bank deposits are battling with so-called e-money, electronically stored monetary value denominated in, and pegged to, a currency like the euro or the dollar. This paper identifies the benefits and risks and highlights regulatory issues that are likely to emerge with a broader adoption of stablecoins. The paper also highlights the risks associated with e-money: potential creation of new monopolies; threats to weaker currencies; concerns about consumer protection and financial stability; and the risk of fostering illegal activities, among others.
Following the companion paper on the new policy challenges related to the adoption of digital forms of money, this paper presents an operational strategy for the IMF to continue delivering on its mandate of ensuring domestic and international financial and economic stability. The paper begins by summarizing the forces driving the adoption of digital forms of money, and the new policy questions that emerge. It then focusses on how the IMF’s core activities and output will need to evolve, including surveillance, capacity development, and analytical foundations. It ends by discusses how the IMF intends to partner with other organization, and to grow and structure internal resources to fulfill this vision.
This departmental paper discusses the evolving prudential frameworks for nonbank issuers of electronic money. Some jurisdictions take a relatively light-touch approach to regulating electronic money issuers (EMIs). Others have sought to apply more stringent requirements to protect electronic money (e-money) users, as the sector has grown in importance. The paper aims to build on previous IMF staff contributions to the literature and to draw policy conclusions for strengthening e-money regulatory regimes; in particular in jurisdictions where issuers, individually or collectively, have grown to a size to which they are of macro-financial importance (see below). Chapter 2 provides background on the development of e-money, its economic benefits, and potential risks. Chapter 3 discusses prudential supervision of EMIs, followed in Chapter 4 by their oversight from a payments system perspective. Chapter 5 discusses potential additional measures for user protection and contingency arrangements for EMI failure. The last chapter presents policy recommendations for policymakers, especially in those emerging market economies and developing countries wherein EMIs have reached a scale at which they could have a significant economic impact if they were to fail.
Electronic Money Flows describes the far-reaching present changes under way in payments and capital markets. Electronic payment forms are in the process of molding a new financial regime-largely shared and inter dependent-throughout the world. Our earlier Electronic Funds Transfers and Payments (Kluwer, 1987) looked at the new money technology in its initial phases of development and in broad focus. Then, as now, the contributors came from many different disciplines. The synthesis of their diverse views laid out the background for the electronic payments revolution to come, and the great benefits but also risks for segmented sectors of society. The old questions have not gone away; new ones have been added to the agenda. For example, what is the nature of money today amidst an array of computer-based options? What money and turnover concepts are appropriate to the electronic age? What are the effects of high-speed money flows on markets, volatility, money control, even the business cycle? Is the financial system more prone to instability but also to faster correction, given the swift movement of money and payments? At the same time, is privacy imperilled by the ubiquitous computer-linked webs that move both information and money? This second book is thus companion to Electronic Funds Transfers and Payments and expands upon it. Contributors discuss the expectations that have and have not come to fruition, together withthe new issuesofthe past four years.
A cutting-edge look at how accelerating financial change, from the end of cash to the rise of cryptocurrencies, will transform economies for better and worse. We think weÕve seen financial innovation. We bank from laptops and buy coffee with the wave of a phone. But these are minor miracles compared with the dizzying experiments now underway around the globe, as businesses and governments alike embrace the possibilities of new financial technologies. As Eswar Prasad explains, the world of finance is at the threshold of major disruption that will affect corporations, bankers, states, and indeed all of us. The transformation of money will fundamentally rewrite how ordinary people live. Above all, Prasad foresees the end of physical cash. The driving force wonÕt be phones or credit cards but rather central banks, spurred by the emergence of cryptocurrencies to develop their own, more stable digital currencies. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies themselves will evolve unpredictably as global corporations like Facebook and Amazon join the game. The changes will be accompanied by snowballing innovations that are reshaping finance and have already begun to revolutionize how we invest, trade, insure, and manage risk. Prasad shows how these and other changes will redefine the very concept of money, unbundling its traditional functions as a unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value. The promise lies in greater efficiency and flexibility, increased sensitivity to the needs of diverse consumers, and improved market access for the unbanked. The risk is instability, lack of accountability, and erosion of privacy. A lucid, visionary work, The Future of Money shows how to maximize the best and guard against the worst of what is to come.
This is a collection of articles on the flow of funds that attempts to serve as a reference guide to economists in academia, business, finance and government. Flow of funds analysis is widely used in analysis of financial institutions and markets. In fact, they were largely constructed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks and were the foundations for defining and measuring the various concepts of the monetary aggragates used as key targets by central banks in carrying out monetary policy. The book brings together the scattered articles on the subject and should be useful as a research guide and teaching source.
Electronic Value Exchange examines in detail the transformation of the VISA electronic payment system from a collection of non-integrated, localized, paper-based bank credit card programs into the cooperative, global, electronic value exchange network it is today. Topics and features: provides a history of the VISA system from the mid-1960s to the early 1980s; presents a historical narrative based on research gathered from personal documents and interviews with key actors; investigates, for the first time, both the technological and social infrastructures necessary for the VISA system to operate; supplies a detailed case study, highlighting the mutual shaping of technology and social relations, and the influence that earlier information processing practices have on the way firms adopt computers and telecommunications; examines how “gateways” in transactional networks can reinforce or undermine established social boundaries, and reviews the establishment of trust in new payment devices.
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
New technologies are driving transformational changes in the global financial system. Virtual currencies (VCs) and the underlying distributed ledger systems are among these. VCs offer many potential benefits, but also considerable risks. VCs could raise efficiency and in the long run strengthen financial inclusion. At the same time, VCs could be potential vehicles for money laundering, terrorist financing, tax evasion and fraud. While risks to the conduct of monetary policy seem less likely to arise at this stage given the very small scale of VCs, risks to financial stability may eventually emerge as the new technologies become more widely used. National authorities have begun to address these challenges and will need to calibrate regulation in a manner that appropriately addresses the risks without stifling innovation. As experience is gained, international standards and best practices could be considered to provide guidance on the most appropriate regulatory responses in different fields, thereby promoting harmonization and cooperation across jurisdictions.