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Canadian house prices have increased significantly between 2003 and early 2008, with a marked downward trend since mid-2008, especially in the resource-rich western provinces. This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices during this period in key provinces and finds that, following recent declines, home prices are now generally close to equilibrium throughout Canada. However, house prices in Alberta and British Columbia remain around 8 percent overvalued at the end of the sample (second quarter of 2009). Despite the limitations of econometric estimates of house-price dynamics, the measured small degree of overvaluation suggests that the Canadian housing market is essentially at equilibrium.
Real estate market growth in Canada experienced unprecedented growth in the last five years, driving housing prices to an unaffordable level for an average household and giving an impression of a housing bubble, similar to the one seen in the United States in 2007. Yet a large number of Canadian families are dreaming of becoming homeowners at any cost (even if they are not able to afford it) without clear understanding of risks and costs associated with a home purchase. But under current market conditions, homeownership is a luxury rather than a profitable investment. The book provides a real-life illustration of two options available for a family debating between buying and leasing a townhouse in Toronto (the readers are able to easily extend this analysis to other types of residential properties). One of the findings from this mathematical exercise is that an unchanged house price by the end of a five-year term results in a $90,000 loss by the homeowner. This implies that the only rational explanation for a desire to buy the townhouse is expectations of capital appreciation that will be sufficient to compensate for the additional costs of homeownership. The analytical section of the book provides an insight into an upcoming price moderation stage for the Canadian housing market. Analysis include a discussion on the forces of supply and demand that drove the Canadian housing prices to the level where they are today and an outlook on what is likely to happen with these forces in years to come. The user-friendly Excel model is available for download by readers free of charge and can be used for evaluation of their own personal options.
Canada’s vaccine rollout is bringing the prospect of an end to the COVID-19 crisis and a pick-up in output growth is expected. An ultra-low policy rate and other monetary measures continue to provide substantial support for the economy and fiscal support for households and businesses has been substantial.
With the aging of the baby-boom generation, the number of young households is falling in Canada. This study examines the contentions of the demographer David Foot, and of earlier work by Mankiw and Weil, that in such a population, the number of home buyers is bound to decrease, causing the prices of residential real estate to drop substantially. In addition to reviewing the relevant economic literature, it constructs econometric models using Canadian national and provincial data and uses them to assess whether expected demographic changes in Canada are likely to trigger a pronounced downward trend in residential real estate prices. The study concludes that even if it is true that demographics may exert downward pressure on real estate prices, such impact will probably be dominant only in certain regions, depending even there on their rates of growth in real income. In other regions, the real price should have a tendancy to rise.
This study describes the organization and operation of the postwar Canadian housing and residential mortgage markets and investigates the role of and scope for government policy in these markets. There are three main sections. The first investigates the behavious of the housing market and structural relationships within it, and quatifies these relationships through the development of an econometric model. The single and multiple dwelling sectors are analysed separately, and considerable attention is paid to the factors affecting both housing demand and supply. The housing model is then used to explain the long-run and cyclical variations in residential construction activity on a period-by-period basis. The residential mortgage market is examined in the second section. The main participants are described and their mortgage investment behavious is analysed in terms of both their portfolio investment decisions and their net inflows of funds. The factors influencing the supply of mortgage credit are integrated with demand factors to explain the determination of mortgage rates, and simulations are conducted to indicate the interest sensitivity of mortgage flows for the major lending institutions. The third section forcuses upon government oplicy in the housing and mortgage markets using the models previously developed. The major government programs are analysed, and simulation experiments run to quantify their effects. The book concludes with a discussion of the trade-off between policies directed towards housing objectives and those directed toward general economic stability. This work should be helpful to students of Canadian housing and mortgage markets and to economists who are interested in more than cursory knowledge of the area. Policy-makers should also find it useful because it provides an in-depth analysis of past housing and mortgage market policy, and describes the framework and market structure within which future policies will operate.
OECD's 2014 Economic Survey of Canada examines recent economic developments, policies and prospects. Special chapters cover housing in Canada and the labour market and skills mismatch.