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Expansion of ethanol production in the United States has raised concerns regarding its land-use change effects. However, little is known about the extent to which observed land use change in the United States can be attributed to ethanol plant proximity or is caused by changes in crop prices that may be partly induced by expansion in ethanol production. This study aims to examine the determinants of changes in corn acreage and aggregate crop acreage by simultaneously identifying the effects of establishment of ethanol plants serving as terminal markets for corn and the effects of changes in crop prices in the United States between 2003 and 2014. Our results show that corn acreage and total acreage are fairly inelastic with respect to both changes in ethanol capacity in the vicinity, as well as changes in crop prices. Our estimates of acreage elasticity with respect to corn ethanol production are smaller than those obtained by previous studies that disregard the price effect on crop acreage. We find that, ceteris paribus, the increase in ethanol capacity alone led to a modest 3% increase in corn acreage and less than a 1% increase in total crop acreage by 2012 when compared to 2008. The effect of corn price and aggregate crop price on acreage change from 2008 to 2012 was more than twice larger than that of effective ethanol production capacity over this period; but this price effect was largely reversed by the downturn in crop prices after 2012. This study shows that land-use change is not a static phenomenon and that it is important to examine how it evolves in response to various factors that may change over time.
Price changes affect the profitability of agricultural land use at the intensive margin (i.e. crop choice) and the extensive margin (i.e. land devoted to crop production). Understanding how prices impact localized land use decisions is important for predicting how production and its allocation across producers change with prices. Due to its wide expanse and diverse geography, the productivity US land differs across space and uses. Understanding the drivers of land use decisions while accounting for such diversity is essential for accurately modeling supply response at the regional and national level. This dissertation contains two studies that provide insight into how price changes impact land use decisions at the extensive and intensive margins. In the first chapter examine the corn supply-price relationship in the United States. I perform this analysis using field-level data across the contiguous US (CONUS). This study is unique in that it incorporates micro-level data from over 3 million fields to estimate region-specific supply response and then aggregates results to the national level. The dataset used in this study is nearly comprehensive, representing field-level decisions across fields that accounted for over 88% of national corn production between 2009 and 2016. The findings from this study illustrate the importance of incorporating heterogeneity in supply response models. Supply response to price differed substantially across regions with high supply sensitivity in the north-central US and Mississippi River Delta, moderate sensitivity in Corn Belt states, andlow sensitivity in the western and Gulf Coast states. The relative importance of corn production in the in the Corn Belt states of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Nebraska meant that it was far less sensitive and, in the long-run, more stable to price changes than national corn supply as a whole. Including heterogeneity in supply response also provided policy relevant context to supply response studies. Overall supply response was negatively correlated with area yields. This meant that price changes have a larger effect on planted corn acres and a smaller effect quantity of corn itself. In the last chapter I examine the impact that ethanol plant capacity has on local land use at the extensive margin. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been one of the most influential agricultural policies in the past 20 years, increasing general US crop prices by over 20% and inducing a substantial in US ethanol production capacity (Carter et al., 2016; Roberts and Schlenker, 2013). Its effect on cropland extensification was a concern before it was passed since the policy includes a stipulation forbidding ethanol production on cropland converted after 2007. Lands at the extensive margin tend to be less productive and more environmentally sensitive. Extensive transitions also tend to be less frequent than transitory breaks in crop rotations making their impacts longer-lasting. The goal of this final analysis is to isolate the impact of ethanol expansion on cropland transitions from the general price changes. The concurrent increase in general crop prices and ethanol construction from the RFS complicates the estimation of plants' effects. I isolate these effects using difference- in-differences (DID) which removes impact from common price trends between the treatment and control group. The standard DID approach results show significant pre-treatment effects stemming from non-random ethanol plant construction. Treatment is likely non-random since ethanol plants lo- cate in areas that provide better returns. Factors that impact the returns to plants confound the analysis since they likely also impact cropland transition decisions. To address this, I use propensity score matching to ensure these confounding factors are identically distributed between the treatment and control groups. Under the matched DID models, the expansion of ethanol plants tended to increase cropland retainment and reduce lands transitioning from non-cropland to cropland. While these results seem contradictory, they are consistent with the findings in recent literature. These impacts are thought to arise due to higher program retention in the major US cropland retirement program CRP due to changes that disproportionately impacted major ethanol production areas.
The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 established specific targets for the production of biofuel in the U.S. Meeting these targets will increase demand for traditional ag. commodities used to produce ethanol, resulting in land-use, production, and price changes in the farm sector. This report summarizes the estimated effects of meeting the EISA targets for 2015 on regional ag. production and the environment. Meeting EISA targets for ethanol production will expand U.S. cropped acreage by 5 million acres by 2015, an increase of 1.6% over what would otherwise be expected. Much of the growth comes from corn acreage, which increases by 3.5% over baseline projections. Water quality and soil carbon will also be affected.
In recent years, bioeconomy strategies have been implemented and adapted internationally. In the bioeconomy, materials are to a certain extent circular by nature. However, biomaterials may also be used in a rather linear way. Lately, a transition towards a circular economy, a more restorative and regenerative economic model, is being promoted worldwide. A circular economy offers an alternative model aiming at “doing more and better with less”. It is based on the idea that circulating matter and energy will diminish the need for new input. Its concept lies in maintaining the value of products, materials, and resources for as long as possible and at the same time minimizing or even eliminating the amount of waste produced. Focused on “closing the loops”, a circular economy is a practical solution for promoting entrepreneurial sustainability, economic growth, environmental resilience, and a better quality of life for all. The most efficient way to close resource loops is to find value in the waste. Different modes of resource circulation may be applied, e.g., raw materials, by-products, human resources, logistics, services, waste, energy, or water. To that end, this Special Issue seeks to contribute to the circular bioeconomy agenda through enhanced scientific and multidisciplinary knowledge to boost the performance efficiency of circular business models and support decision-making within the specific field. The Special Issue includes innovative technical developments, reviews, and case studies, all of which are relevant to green, closed-loop, circular bioeconomy.
This study assesses land use changes and related greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts due to expansion of corn-based ethanol production in the United States. The land use change estimates discussed in this paper were developed for a scenario where U.S. corn-based ethanol production expands from approximately 2 billion gallons per year in 2000/2001 to 15 billion gallons per year (bgy) in 2015/16. The overall conclusion of this report is that 15 bgy of corn ethanol production in 2015/16 should not result in new forest or grassland conversion in the U.S. or abroad.
Biofuels, Bioenergy and Food Security: Technology, Institutions and Policies explores the popular ‘Food versus Fuel’ debates, discussing the complex relationship between the biofuel and agricultural markets. From the importance of bioenergy in the context of climate change, to the potentially positive environmental consequences of growing second generation biofuels crops, this book provides important insights into the impact of policy, the technical implementation and the resulting impact of biofuels. The discussion of existing issues hindering the growth of the cellulosic biofuel industry and their remedies are particularly relevant for policy makers and others associated with the biofuel industry. Transferring information on bioenergy economy through the discussion of the current and emerging biofuel market, country specific case studies explain the existing biofuel policy and its consequences to both the energy and agricultural markets. Economic simulation models explain the future of the bioenergy markets. Biofuels, Bioenergy and Food Security: Technology, Institutions and Policies is an invaluable resource to the students, scientific community, policy makers, and investors in the bioenergy industry. Students will benefit from a variety of perspectives on major societal questions in context of the interaction between food security and bioenergy. Its review of existing literature on the biofuel marker, investment opportunities, and energy independence provides a broad overview to allow informed decision making regarding the industry. Provides an integrated overview of the world biofuel market by country, including a summary of the existing biofuel policies, role of investment opportunities, and rural development potential Discusses the impact of biofuels on efforts by developing countries to become more energy self-sufficient Examines the environmental consequences of biomass-based biofuel use.
The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 established specific targets for the production of biofuel in the United States. Until advanced technologies become commercially viable, meeting these targets will increase demand for traditional agricultural commodities used to produce ethanol, resulting in land-use, production, and price changes throughout the farm sector. This report summarizes the estimated effects of meeting the EISA targets for 2015 on regional agricultural production and the environment. Meeting EISA targets for ethanol production is estimated to expand U.S. cropped acreage by nearly 5 million acres by 2015, an increase of 1.6 percent over what would otherwise be expected. Much of the growth comes from corn acreage, which increases by 3.5 percent over baseline projections. Water quality and soil carbon will also be affected, in some cases by greater percentages than suggested by changes in the amount of cropped land. The economic and environmental implications of displacing a portion of corn ethanol production with ethanol produced from crop residues are also estimated.
The production and use of ethanol in the U.S. have been steadily increasing since 2001, boosted in part by production subsidies. That growth has exerted upward pressure on the price of corn and, ultimately, on the retail price of food, affecting both individual consumers and fed. expend. on nutritional support programs. It has also raised questions about the environmental consequences of replacing gasoline with ethanol. This analysis examines the relationship between increasing production of ethanol and rising prices for food. It estimated how much of the rise in food prices between 4/07 and 4/08 was due to an increase on the production of ethanol and how much that increase in prices might raise fed. expend. on food assistance programs. Tables and graphs.
We measure corn and total agricultural area response to the biofuels boom in the United States from 2006 to 2010. Specifically, we use newly available micro-scale grid cell data to test whether a location's corn and total agricultural cultivation rose in response to the capacity of ethanol refineries in their vicinity. Based on these data, acreage in corn and overall agriculture not only grew in already-cultivated areas but also expanded into previously uncultivated areas. Acreage in corn and total agriculture also correlated with proximity to ethanol plants, though the relationship dampened over the time period. A formal estimation of the link between acreage and ethanol refineries, however, must account for the endogenous location decisions of ethanol plants and areas of corn supply. We present historical evidence to support the use of the US railroad network as a valid instrument for ethanol plant locations. Our estimates show that a location's neighborhood refining capacity exerts strong and significant effects on acreage planted in corn and total agricultural acreage. The largest impacts of ethanol plants were felt in locations where cultivation area was relatively low. This high-resolution evidence of ethanol impacts on local agricultural outcomes can inform researchers and policy-makers concerned with crop diversity, environmental sustainability, and rural economic development.