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This paper analyzes the experiences of emerging market economies (EMEs) that have liberalized capital flows over the past 15 years with respect to macroeconomic performance and risks to financial stability. The results of the panel data regressions indicate that greater openness to capital flows is associated with higher growth, gross capital flows, and equity returns and with lower inflation and bank capital adequacy ratios. The effects vary depending on thresholds. As a potential application of these findings, the paper explores the possible effects of liberalization on China by applying the coefficients of explanatory variables to the corresponding variables of China in 2012–16.
"Writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account liberalization find few, if any, robust effects of liberalization on real variables. In contrast to the prevailing wisdom, I argue that the textbook theory of liberalization holds up quite well to a critical reading of this literature. The lion's share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables tell us nothing about the empirical validity of the theory, because they do not really test it. This paper explains why it is that most studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. It also discusses what is necessary to test the theory and examines papers that have done so. Studies that actually test the theory show that liberalization has significant effects on the cost of capital, investment, and economic growth"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
An analysis of the connections between capital flows and financial crises as well as between capital flows and economic growth.
This paper assesses the implications of Chinese capital account liberalization for capital flows. Stylized facts from capital account liberalization in advanced and large emerging market economies illustrate that capital account liberalization has historically generated large gross capital in- and outflows, but the direction of net flows has depended on many factors. An econometric portfolio allocation model finds that capital controls significantly dampen cross-border portfolio asset holdings. The model also suggests that capital account liberalization in China may trigger net portfolio outflows as large domestic savings seek to diversify abroad.
Diploma Thesis from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 2.0, University of Osnabrück (Fachbereich Außenwirtschaft), language: English, abstract: During the recent decades, many countries decided to get access to international financial markets by liberalizing their capital accounts. As we will see in this paper, the issues of liberalization are very complex. Many different areas like, for example, growth, inflation or the labor market are affected by it. For some areas, empirical research supports theory and delivers sustainable and significant results. For others, theory is inconsistent or not supported by evidence from the real world. Some special ones, like for instance welfare or productivity, even show that it is important to split up the results to see whose welfare is increased or which's branch productivity is affected. Another interesting point is the connection between crises and capital account liberalization. Due to the financial crises that occurred in the aftermath of liberalization the concept has been controversially debated by academics for a long time. The real connection between these two issues is not yet clear. The structure of this paper is as follows. Section 2 will give short case studies of countries that liberalized their capital account. Section 3 is meant to endow the reader with some basic tools that will be important for the understanding of the concepts that will be presented later on in this paper. This includes definitions and conceptual ideas about measuring capital account liberalization. Section 4 focuses on the theory and empirical findings. In that section, the effects of liberalization on various macroeconomic variables will be presented. Section 5 follows the thoughts of the prior one by having a look at the implications that can be concluded from the theoretical and empirical findings that have been presented in the prior chapter. Section 6 discusses capital account liberalization with r
After the Asian economic crisis, Asian countries saw the highs and lows of the costs and benefits of liberalization. When capital flows into a country it increases the invisible resources and catalyzes growth. But when a capital outflow takes place in une
This paper examines the distributional impact of capital account liberalization. Using panel data for 149 countries from 1970 to 2010, we find that, on average, capital account liberalization reforms increase inequality and reduce the labor share of income in the short and medium term. We also find that the level of financial development and the occurrence of crises play a key role in shaping the response of inequality to capital account liberalization reforms.
Capital account liberalization - orderly, properly sequence, and befitting the individual circumstances of countries- is an inevitable step for all countries wishing to realize the benefits of the globalized economy. This paper reviews the theories behind capital account liberalization and examines the dangers associated with free capital flows. The authors conclude that the dangers can be limited through a combination of sound macroeconomic and prudential policies.
The Fund’s Institutional View (IV) recognizes the benefits of and risks associated with capital flows. Since the IV was adopted, a growing literature has provided additional insights into the benefits and risks from capital flows. This note summarizes the insights from the recent literature and the experiences of staff since the adoption of the IV that have informed this review.
This note provides operational guidance to staff for how to use the Fund’s institutional view on the liberalization and management of capital flows. The institutional view is a consistent basis for providing policy advice on capital flows and policies related to them and assessments when required for surveillance. In the absence of an institutional view, country teams risk providing inconsistent advice to countries in similar circumstances (IEO, 2005). The view does not have mandatory implications for Fund-supported programs or technical assistance. It does not alter members’ rights and obligations under the Fund’s Articles of Agreement or under any other international agreements. The institutional view and guidance will evolve over time to reflect new experience, emerging views of authorities and staff, and research. Staff teams are encouraged to reflect useful lessons from authorities’ experiences with capital flow liberalization and management in Fund reports so that these experiences can continue to influence the Fund’s approach to these issues.