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Part I: A thorough analysis of the stability of the uncoupled Rooth inter-hemispheric 3-box model of thermohaline circulation (THC) is presented. The model consists of a northern high latitudes box, a tropical box, and a southern high latitudes box, which respectively correspond to the northern, tropical and southern Atlantic ocean. We adopt restoring boundary conditions for the temperature variables and flux boundary conditions for the salinity variables. We study how the strength of THC changes when the system undergoes forcings that are analogous to those of global warming conditions by applying to the equilibrium state perturbations to the moisture and heat fluxes into the three boxes. In each class of experiments, we determine, using suitably defined metrics, the boundary dividing the set of forcing scenarios that lead the system to equilibria characterized by a THC pattern similar to the present one, from those that drive the system to equilibria where the THC is reversed. Fast increases in the moisture flux into the northern high latitude box strongly inhibits the breakdown and can prevent it, in the case of slow increases in the Northern Hemisphere. Similarly, high rates of heat flux increase in the Northern Hemisphere destabilize the system more effectively than low ones, and increases in the heat fluxes in the Southern Hemisphere tend to stabilize the system.
The Atlantic Ocean plays a dominant role in the global climate system due to its unique thermohaline circulation: it is the only ocean in which heat is transported from the southern to the northern hemisphere, yielding the mild climate of Europe and influencing the climate system on the entire globe. The book primarily addresses oceanographers, meteorologists and the broad community working on climate research. With a few exceptions, mathematical descriptions are reduced to a minimum; the detailed explanation of the main current systems, the oceanic eddy fields and the interpretation of the general circulation by numeric models will also be of interest to neighboring disciplines. The book reviews the most recent advances in its field.
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 173. The ocean's meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is a key factor in climate change. The Atlantic MOC, in particular, is believed to play an active role in the regional and global climate variability. It is associated with the recent debate on rapid climate change, the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO), global warming, and Atlantic hurricanes. This is the first book to deal with all aspects of the ocean's large-scale meridional overturning circulation, and is a coherent presentation, from a mechanistic point of view, of our current understanding of paleo, present-day, and future variability and change. It presents the current state of the science by bringing together the world's leading experts in physical, chemical, and biological oceanography, marine geology, geochemistry, paleoceanography, and climate modeling. A mix of overview and research papers makes this volume suitable not only for experts in the field, but also for students and anyone interested in climate change and the oceans.
The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic-and often extreme-shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.
A parameter representing circulation due to wind forcing is added to the thermohaline circulation model of Marotzke (1996). The model consists of four boxes and is governed by a system of two differential equations governing the temperature and salinity differences between high latitude ocean and low latitude ocean boxes. The modified model is solved numerically for equilibrium solutions, and then solved analytically by the method of Krasovskiy and Stone (1998). At the maximum strength of wind-forced circulation studied, v = 5 x 10-11 s-1, a stable thermal mode equilibrium temperature difference of 25 K is calculated. Once v reaches a critical value, which is within the range of physically reasonable values, the stable haline mode equlibrium and unstable thermal mode equilibrium are no longer observed. It is concluded that strong wind-forced circulation suppresses the thermal mode equilibrium, but that more research is necessary to determine the degree to which this effect is present in the real world.