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In recent years, the government of Tanzania, like other governments in Africa south of the Sahara, has periodically banned the export of staple crops (maize) in an attempt to ensure the domestic food supply and protect its citizens from international food price hikes. While this policy seems to be a common response to domestic production shortfalls or to high prices in international or neighboring countries’ markets, export bans not only have the potential to reduce producer prices locally but also, because the bans are often ad hoc, can cause significant market uncertainty for farmers and the private sector, ultimately making them less responsive in both supply and trade opportunities in the future. While complaints by farmers and traders regarding the export bans frequently appear in the newspapers in Tanzania, few rigorous analyses have been done to quantitatively measure the impacts of the policy. Given this knowledge gap and policy demand, we study the impact of export bans in Tanzania using a computable general equilibrium model. We find that although maize is an important food crop in Tanzania, its contribution to food price inflation is rather limited, and that banning cross-border maize exports lowers the national food price index by only 0.6–2.4 percent compared with the free-export scenario. The benefits of lower prices are captured primarily by urban households, but maize producer prices decrease by 7–26 percent, depending on the region. We also find that the export ban decreases the wage rate for low-skilled labor and the returns to land, while returns to nonagricultural capital and wage rate for the skilled labor increase, further hurting poor rural households and thus increasing poverty for the country as a whole.
The first essay tests the effectiveness of export bans as a price insulation policy using panel data of local maize prices across 35 markets in 7 countries (Tanzania and its neighboring countries of Burundi, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia). While the data have a relatively high rate of missing values, I use a multiple imputation method to utilize as much of the available information as possible for the analysis. Using an extended competitive storage model, I analyze the dynamics of local maize prices and test the effect of export bans. Not only I reject the null hypothesis of no impact of export bans on local maize prices, but I find that the export ban is associated with higher maize prices. In other words, an implementation of export ban induces higher prices due to the speculative demand instead of keeping the price low through the increased availability at the local market. Moreover, the impact of the export ban is conditional on the existence and magnitude of trade costs: with a high trade cost, the trade flow would not exist prior to an export ban and the ban would not binding. I find that the upward pressure of the export ban on local prices would be underestimated, if such non-binding cases are not taken into account. The second essay estimates a large-scale demand system of foods, and assesses the impact of price changes on food consumption and nutrition consumption patterns of Tanzanian households. Malnutrition is a widespread issue in Tanzania. For securing a sufficient supply of food, particularly grains, price policies such as subsidies or protective trade measures are exercised in Tanzania and many of its neighboring countries. However, evidence on the effectiveness of price policies for improving nutritional intakes are mixed. In the literature, studies on nutrient consumption are particularly scarce, and the roles of income and socioeconomic characteristics is often investigated separately from price responsiveness of food consumption. I assess the price responsiveness of foods and their associated nutritional intakes by estimating a flexible demand system - Exact Affine Stone Index demand system to overcome the limitation of alternative demand systems - using Tanzanian living standard surveys. Using the estimated elasticities, I find that the price of maize is not very influential to the caloric intakes even among very poor households due to these households' high capability to substitute foods and secure the level of energy intake. However, in exchange, intakes of other nutrients are greatly reduced when the maize price increases, due to the major role of maize as a relatively cheap source of calories and other nutrients. Evaluated at the historical maize price changes from 2007-2008, simulations indicate a small decline in the average energy intakes. However, the decreases in average micronutrient intakes are large and the deficiency incidence rises significantly. The third essay extends the framework of the second essay by incorporating the production of foods in households and the general equilibrium effects of food price changes to the wage, assessing the overall welfare changes. Many households in Tanzania are both consumers and producers of food crops. Higher food prices increase the real income of such households, and thus have a potential to significantly reduce the loss or even realize a net gain. In addition, higher prices of agricultural goods - or, in general, traded goods - may increase the demand for labor as the production level is increased. This higher demand, in turn, would increase the return to the wage, under a set of certain assumptions. This general equilibrium effect of food prices to the wage level is evaluated empirically using the living standard survey of Tanzania. Using the estimated price-wage elasticities and the data of budget and income shares, I assess the average welfare impact of the historical maize price increase across sub-populations of households. I find that the net effect through consumption, production, and wage earnings are, on average, positive for all the household across income levels. However, the net gains are much stronger for wealthier households and almost negligibly small for poorer households because of the dominantly strong gain from the wage earning increases compared with the smaller gains from production net consumption. Moreover, I identify the rural and/or farm households experience disproportional net loss, for significantly higher reliance on maize in consumption, compared with urban and/or non-farm households. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).
Many development programs that aim to alleviate poverty and improve investments in human capital consider women’s empowerment a key pathway by which to achieve impact and often target women as their main beneficiaries. Despite this, women’s empowerment dimensions are often not rigorously measured and are at times merely assumed. This paper starts by reflecting on the concept and measurement of women’s empowerment and then reviews some of the structural interventions that aim to influence underlying gender norms in society and eradicate gender discrimination. It then proceeds to review the evidence of the impact of three types of interventions—cash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programs—on women’s empowerment, nutrition, or both. Qualitative evidence on conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs generally points to positive impacts on women’s empowerment, although quantitative research findings are more heterogenous. CCT programs produce mixed results on long-term nutritional status, and very limited evidence exists of their impacts on micronutrient status. The little evidence available on unconditional cash transters (UCT) indicates mixed impacts on women’s empowerment and positive impacts on nutrition; however, recent reviews comparing CCT and UCT programs have found little difference in terms of their effects on stunting and they have found that conditionality is less important than other factors, such as access to healthcare and child age and sex. Evidence of cash transfer program impacts depending on the gender of the transfer recipient or on the conditionality is also mixed, although CCTs with non-health conditionalities seem to have negative impacts on nutritional status. The impacts of programs based on the gender of the transfer recipient show mixed results, but almost no experimental evidence exists of testing gender-differentiated impacts of a single program. Agricultural interventions—specifically home gardening and dairy projects—show mixed impacts on women’s empowerment measures such as time, workload, and control over income; but they demonstrate very little impact on nutrition. Implementation modalities are shown to determine differential impacts in terms of empowerment and nutrition outcomes. With regard to the impact of microfinance on women’s empowerment, evidence is also mixed, although more recent reviews do not find any impact on women’s empowerment. The impact of microfinance on nutritional status is mixed, with no evidence of impact on micronutrient status. Across all three types of programs (cash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programs), very little evidence exists on pathways of impact, and evidence is often biased toward a particular region. The paper ends with a discussion of the findings and remaining evidence gaps and an outline of recommendations for research.
Women’s low status and persistent gender gaps in health and education in South Asia contribute to chronic child malnutrition (Smith et al. 2003) and food insecurity (von Grebmer et al. 2009), even as other determinants of food security, such as per capita incomes, have improved. This is particularly relevant for Bangladesh, where chronic food insecurity continues to be an important issue despite steady advances in food production. To be able to leverage agriculture as an engine of inclusive growth, there is a need to develop indicators for measuring women’s empowerment, examine its relationship to various food-security outcomes, and monitor the impact of interventions to empower women. Using nationally representative survey data from Bangladesh, we examine the relationship between women’s empowerment in agriculture and two measures of household food security: per adult equivalent calorie availability and dietary diversity. We use the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index to assess the extent of women’s empowerment in agriculture and instrumental variables techniques to correct for the potential endogeneity of empowerment. We find that the overall women’s empowerment score, the number of groups in which women actively participate, women’s control of assets, and a narrowing gap in empowerment between men and women within households are positively associated with calorie availability and dietary diversity.
India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) is one of the largest public works programs globally. Understanding the impacts of NREGS and the pathway through which its impacts are realized thus has important policy implications. We use a three-round 4,000-household panel from Andhra Pradesh together with administrative data to explore short- and medium-term poverty and welfare effects of NREGS. Triple difference estimates suggest that participants significantly increase consumption (protein and energy intake) in the short run and accumulate more nonfinancial assets in the medium term. Direct benefits exceed program-related transfers and are most pronounced for scheduled castes and tribes and households supplying casual labor. Asset creation via program-induced land improvements is consistent with a medium-term increase in assets by nonparticipants and increases in wage income in excess of program cost.
Restrictions on exports of staples or cash crops are frequently imposed in developing countries to promote food security or industrial development goals. By diverting production to the local market, these policies aim to reduce prices and increase the supply of food or intermediate inputs to the benefit of consumers or downstream industrial users. Although export restrictions reduce aggregate welfare, they are attractive to policymakers: Governments gain support when they are seen to keep consumer prices low; likewise, politicians are swayed by industrial lobbyists who promise increased value-addition in exchange for access to cheaper inputs. This study weighs in on the debate around the desirability of export restrictions by simulating the economy-wide effects of Malawi’s longstanding maize export ban as well as a pro-posed oilseed export levy intended to raise value-addition in processing sectors. Our results show that, while export restrictions may have the desired outcome in the short run, producers respond to weakening market prospects in the longer run by restricting supply, often to the extent that the policies become self-defeating. Specifically, maize export bans only benefit the urban non-poor, while poor farm households experience income losses and reduced maize consumption in the long run. The oilseed export levy is equally ineffective: Even when export tax revenues are used to subsidize processors, gains in industrial value-addition are outweighed by declining agricultural value-addition as production in the fledgling oilseed sector is effectively decimated. The policy is further associated with welfare losses among rural households, while urban non-poor households benefit marginally.
This book takes forward our understanding of agricultural input subsidies in low income countries.
The Role of Trade in Ending Poverty looks at the complex relationships between economic growth, poverty reduction and trade, and examines the challenges that poor people face in benefiting from trade opportunities. Written jointly by the World Bank Group and the WTO, the publication examines how trade could make a greater contribution to ending poverty by increasing efforts to lower trade costs, improve the enabling environment, implement trade policy in conjunction with other areas of policy, better manage risks faced by the poor, and improve data used for policy-making.
Seasonal analysis of the structure, conduct, and performance (SCP) of markets for staple crops has received relatively little attention in food policy analysis yet it has important implications for food and nutrition security. This study employs a mixed methods approach to analyze the SCP of maize markets in Malawi in the 2018/19 main harvest and lean seasons. We interviewed 749 traders from 74 markets across 8 districts, held 28 focus group discussions (FGD) with a total of 480 farmers and analyzed daily and weekly price data from 13 regional markets. The structure of maize markets was explored by examining marketing channels, barriers to entry and the competitiveness of different tiers of the marketing chain. Inequality in sales revenues, switches in trader types between seasons, quality and weights standardization, and the behavior of traders were used to examine market conduct. Performance was assessed by examining traders’ costs and margins, and the spatial and temporal integration of maize markets. We find that Malawi’s maize market is pyramidal in structure and highly competitive at lower tiers of trade but ‘oligopolistic’ at higher tiers. The market channels vary across seasons with switches between trader types and instances of rural-urban trade reversals. There is considerable inequality of sales revenues among traders of similar capacities, and a widespread lack of structured trading despite existing institutions. A high ratio of marketing costs to revenue suggests marketing inefficiencies. Malawi maize prices were highly seasonal and more volatile than neighboring countries. In contrast to previous studies, our findings show weak spatial integration of markets and slow price adjustments to long-run equilibrium values even among short-distance market pairs. The study highlights five pathways to improving Malawi’s maize marketing system: (1) increased policy predictability to promote private-sector investment; (2) institutionalization of quality grades and standardization of weights and measures; (3) increased commercialization of smallholder maize production; (4) investment in enabling infrastructure; and (5) the promotion of structured trading.
The first of three books in IFPRI's climate change in Africa series, West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis examines the food security threats facing 11 of the countries that make up West Africa -- Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo -- and explores how climate change will increase the efforts needed to achieve sustainable food security throughout the region. West Africa's population is expected to grow at least through mid-century. The region will also see income growth. Both will put increased pressure on the natural resources needed to produce food, and climate change makes the challenges greater. West Africa is already experiencing rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing extreme events. Without attention to adaptation, the poor will suffer. Through the use of hundreds of scenario maps, models, figures, and detailed analysis, the editors and contributors of West African Agriculture and Climate Change present plausible future scenarios that combine economic and biophysical characteristics to explore the possible consequences for agriculture, food security, and resources management to 2050. They also offer recommendations to national governments and regional economic agencies already dealing with the vulnerabilities of climate change and deviations in environment. Decisionmakers and researchers will find West African Agriculture and Climate Change a vital tool for shaping policy and studying the various and likely consequences of climate change.