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This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
The first of an eight-volume series, The Literature of the Agricultural Sciences, this book analyzes the trends in the published literature of agricultural economics and rural sociology during the past fifty years. It uses citation analysis and other bibliometric techniques to identify the primary journals, report series, and monographs of current importance to the developed industrial countries as well as those in the Third World.
This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.
Agricultural markets have entered a long-term process of liberalization, with the aim of reducing imposed market imperfections such as monopolistic public trade, entry barriers and subsidies. The experience of more than a decade of agriculture liberalization offers a good opportunity to review and analyze the outcome of this process and to draw lessons for the future. The central topic in Agricultural Markets Beyond Liberalization is the relationship between market structure and how markets perform in a dynamic context during a liberalization process. The topic is studied from both a micro and macro viewpoint and refers to different types of agricultural markets. This volume brings together the dynamics of agricultural markets in several parts of the world, with a special focus on transition economics and Africa. The different studies cover geographical areas as wide as a district as well as a group of countries, and institutions from individual contracts to multi-national organizations. The analysis of liberalization under different circumstances, and the different methods of analysis used by the authors provide a valuable foundation for the assessment of liberalization.