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This publication outlines the region's economic performance in 2018 and analyses trends in the early months of 2019, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines the external and domestic factors that have influenced the region's economic performance, analyses the characteristics of growth, prices and the labour market, and draws attention to some of the macroeconomic policy challenges of the prevailing external conditions, amid mounting uncertainty stemming mainly from political factors. It analyses the dynamics of investment and its determinants, with a view to identifying the different variables on which public policy can act to influence the trajectory of investment.
Introduction .-- Executive summary .-- Part I: The economic situation and outlook for 2019 .-- Chapter I: Regional overview .-- Part II. The new global financial context: effects and transmission mechanisms in the region .-- Chapter II: Changes in the global financial cycle and their implications .-- Chapter III: Towards a new approach to analysing the potential vulnerabilities facing Latin America and the Caribbean in the new financial cycle .-- Chapter IV: Changes in the financial system, macroprudential regulation and transmission mechanisms .-- Statistical annex.
The 2018 edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, its seventieth issue, consists of three parts. Part I outlines the region's economic performance in 2017 and analyses trends in the early months of 2018, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines the external and domestic factors that have influenced the region's economic performance, analyses the characteristics of economic growth, prices and the labour market, and draws attention to some of the macroeconomic policy challenges of the prevailing external conditions, amid mounting uncertainty stemming mainly from political factors. Part II of this edition, which has three chapters, analyses the dynamics of investment and its determinants, with a view to identifying the different variables on which public policy can act to influence the trajectory of investment. Part III contains notes relating to the economic performance of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2017 and the first half of 2018, together with their respective statistical annexes.
The 2017 edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean has three parts. Part I outlines the region's economic performance in 2016 and analyses trends in the early months of 2017, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines external and domestic factors that have influenced the region's economic performance and draws attention to macroeconomic policy challenges. Part II analyses the characteristics of the current economic cycle in the region (2009-2016) and contrasts it with the two preceding cycles (1990-2001 and 2002-2008). It also identifies and attempts to explain some of the determinants of the cycle and outlines possible strategies for regaining growth. Part III contains notes relating to the economic performance of countries of the region.
The aftermath of the global financial crisis has reshaped world growth and demand patterns, leading to a two-speed recovery, with slow growth in industrial countries and fast growth in emerging markets. This new global scenario is defining a constellation of global macroeconomic conditions that has very different implications for subsets of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The report conveys three key messages: first, in this new global economic environment, key structural characteristics of Latin American and Caribbean countries are defining two quite different regional clusters in terms of opportunities and challenges ahead. Second, substantial changes in trade and capital flow patterns, as well as in the international financial architecture, are already taking place and will impact the regional clusters in different ways. Third, economic policy design will have to accommodate these differences in order to ensure widespread and stable growth.
Following the collapse of commodity prices in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in 2014-15, many countries in the region were unable to cushion the impact of the shock in order to experience a more gradual adjustment, to a large extent because they had not built adequate fiscal buffers during the commodities’ windfall from 2010-14. Many LAC countries entered 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis in an even more difficult position, with rising debt and limited fiscal space to smooth the negative impacts of the pandemic and adequately support their economies. Fiscal policy in most LAC countries has been procyclical. Public expenditure and debt levels have expanded in good times and contracted in severe downswings due to insufficient fiscal buffers, making crises deeper. Fiscal rules represent a promising policy option for these and other economies. If well-designed and implemented, they can help build buffers during periods of strong economic performance that will be available during rainy days to smooth economic shocks. This book—which was prepared before the COVID-19 crisis—reviews the performance and implementation of different fiscal rules in the region and world. It provides analytical and practical criteria for policy makers for the design, establishment, and feasible implementation of fiscal rules based on each country's business cycle features, external characteristics, type of shocks faced, initial fiscal conditions, technical and institutional capacities, and political context. While establishing new fiscal rules would not help to attenuate the immediate effects of this pandemic crisis, higher debt levels in the aftermath of COVID-19 will demand rebuilding better and stronger institutional frameworks of fiscal policy in LAC and emerging economies globally. Having stronger fiscal mechanisms that include fiscal rules can help countries prepare for the next crisis and should be on the front burner for policy makers in coming years. The findings and lessons discussed apply to economies of different sizes, with some differences under certain scenarios in terms of the technical design and criteria needed for implementation. In this book, policy makers will find that fiscal rules, if tailored to country characteristics, can work and be an essential fiscal tool for larger and particularly smaller economies.
Published since 1948, This is the sixty-eighth edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, which corresponds to the year 2016, consists of three parts. Part I outlines the region's economic performance in 2015 and analyses trends in the first half of 2016, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines the external and internal factors influencing the region's economic performance and highlights some of the macroeconomic policy challenges that have arisen in an external context of weak growth and high levels of uncertainty. Part II analyses the challenges that the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean face at the domestic and international levels in mobilizing financing for development. On the domestic front, slower growth and tighter fiscal restrictions pose significant challenges for the mobilization of resources. Externally, the classification of many of the region's countries in the middle-income category limits their access to concessional external financing or international support. Part III of this publication contains the notes relating to the economic performance of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015 and the first half of 2016, together with their respective statistical annexes. The cut-off date for updating the statistical information in this publication was 30 June 2016.
Special 60th Anniversary Edition! The Economic Survey is one of ECLAC's flagship publications, and has been issued since 1948. This new edition covers the region's economic performance in 2007 and the first semester of 2008, and suggests growth estimates for this year. The first chapter is a regional overview, including an analysis of economic policies applied in different countries, and their performance in terms of economic activity, inflation, labor markets, trade and capital flows. The following three chapters deal with the issue of macroeconomic volatility and its relevance in Latin America, empirical evidence of volatility and crisis in the region, and volatility, cycles and policy response. As it is an anniversary edition, the report has an additional special chapter on the 60 years of the Economic Survey. As in each edition, the report also provides data on the economic evolution of each country in the region and includes a statistical
Special 60th Anniversary Edition! The Economic Survey is one of ECLAC's flagship publications, and has been issued since 1948. This new edition covers the region's economic performance in 2007 and the first semester of 2008, and suggests growth estimates for this year. The first chapter is a regional overview, including an analysis of economic policies applied in different countries, and their performance in terms of economic activity, inflation, labor markets, trade and capital flows. The following three chapters deal with the issue of macroeconomic volatility and its relevance in Latin America, empirical evidence of volatility and crisis in the region, and volatility, cycles and policy response. As it is an anniversary edition, the report has an additional special chapter on the 60 years of the Economic Survey. As in each edition, the report also provides data on the economic evolution of each country in the region and includes a statistical
It will appeal to scholars of sociology and development studies with interests in the Caribbean region and world order.